[Albion] How many points needed to stay up this season?

Moshe Gariani · Nov 8, 2020

If current progress by the bottom 4 were continued then 20pts would be enough.

Sporting Index suggest that 33pts will actually be needed. (34-35pts being more than enough seems right to me.)

And our likely number of points feels quite predicable around the 41pts +/- a couple range...

LamieRobertson · Nov 8, 2020

big nuts · Nov 8, 2020

I said on another thread a points tally of 30 points could be enough. I’m with Sporting Index that 33 is probably the magic number.

Even if the bottom four all averaged a point each per game then 35 would prevail but I think that’s possibly too high based on their performances so far this season.

Hampster Gull · Nov 8, 2020

BrianWade4 · Nov 8, 2020

Gotta aim for magic 40 though

arewethereyet? · Nov 9, 2020

Any number of points as long as it’s more than the 3 teams below us.

Silverhatch · Nov 9, 2020

10 wins and 10 draws

Taybha · Nov 9, 2020

blue-shifted · Nov 9, 2020

Moshe Gariani said:
If current progress by the bottom 4 were continued then 20pts would be enough.Sporting Index suggest that 33pts will actually be needed. (34-35pts being more than enough seems right to me.)

And our likely number of points feels quite predicable around the 41pts +/- a couple range...

You always see these early patterns. The league table will look more like a normal league table after another 5 or 6 games.

I think 34 would probably be ok this season.

SAC · Nov 9, 2020

Last season it looked as if it was going to need a record number of points to stay up but 35 was enough for Villa.

My guess is that two teams will have points in the 20s, possibly lower, and one will have low 30s. Man U only need 7 more wins and a draw or two.

schmunk · Nov 9, 2020

zefarelly · Nov 9, 2020

1.052631579 per game

Moshe Gariani · Nov 9, 2020

blue-shifted said:
You always see these early patterns. The league table will look more like a normal league table after another 5 or 6 games.

I think 34 would probably be ok this season.

Yes, you’re right of course about the danger of very misleading “points per game” calculations being made too early.

I guess a factor is when the more hapless outfits play each other and inevitably add points to their tallies. There are 36pts (maximum total) up for grabs in their mini-league.

Is it relevant though that 3 of the 12 basement bunch clashes HAVE already taken place? All 4 teams have already dropped points and two draws mean 2 of the max total to be shared out have disappeared...

If these 4 end up only taking about 7pts each out of their mini-league then a case can be made for 20s and very low 30s totals. But the spread bookies aren’t usually wrong so there must be a reason why they should be expected to do better.

blue-shifted · Nov 9, 2020

Moshe Gariani said:
Yes, you’re right of course about the danger of very misleading “points per game” calculations being made too early.

I guess a factor is when the more hapless outfits play each other and inevitably add points to their tallies. There are 36pts (maximum total) up for grabs in their mini-league.

Is it relevant though that 3 of the 12 basement bunch clashes HAVE already taken place? All 4 teams have already dropped points and two draws mean 2 of the max total to be shared out have disappeared...

If these 4 end up only taking about 7pts each out of their mini-league then a case can be made for 20s and very low 30s totals. But the spread bookies aren’t usually wrong so there must be a reason why they should be expected to do better.

OK, but if you look at any other league table after 8 games and compare to the final table, the bottom 5, won't stay the same.

So I'm pretty sure Southampton and Newcastle were right down there last autumn, but both put together a decent run. Muff did the opposite.

Swansman · Nov 9, 2020

Very hard to make anything that even resembles a predicition at this early stage, but I would say "probably not more than last season".

portslade seagull · Nov 9, 2020

40pts is the target. Can't see Sheff Utd playing so badly all season

Weststander · Nov 9, 2020

blue-shifted · Nov 9, 2020

portslade seagull said:
40pts is the target. Can't see Sheff Utd playing so badly all season

But equally can't see Newcastle, Palace and a couple of others not going on bad run and being sucked down

Cowfold Seagull · Nov 9, 2020

arewethereyet? said:
Any number of points as long as it’s more than the 3 teams below us.

Is the sensible answer.

Obviously it is way too early to know how many points will be required, but for a club such as ours, merely surviving another season in the top flight has to be viewed as success.

the · Nov 9, 2020

38

this season will definitely be much more difficult than the past two.
Fulham and West brom are obviously trash and will go down, but the competition for that 18th spot is pretty tough.

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[Albion] How many points needed to stay up this season?

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