Full national lockdown (not education) 4/11 - 1/12 possible

Poojah · Oct 31, 2020

Good news, only another five years to go folks, and even then apparently life will never be normal again:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54661843

I don’t know, but this type of article really frustrates me. Yes, it features scientific opinion, presumably people better qualified than I to state what the future holds. But honestly, does it present a balanced view of scientific opinion, that a vaccine will to all intents and purposes fail to bring society back to anything resembling normality for some time, if ever?

I honestly don’t know the definitive answer to that, but I suspect not. If that’s the case, you have to question the morality of writing such a piece. National morale is going to be key these next few months, and the media has a pivotal role to play in that.

Can you imagine if, in 1940, the press would’ve been printing stories akin to “We’re fúcked, folks. May as well give up now and start learning German”. That couldn’t happen, no matter how dire things got, because we needed the energy of our people to win the war.

This isn’t a war, this is a pandemic, but there are parallels. We don’t need blind optimism, but there needs to be at least a semblance of a concept that our collective sacrifices will be worthwhile otherwise, as another poster noted, there will be serious civil unrest. And I’m no epidemiologist, but I don’t think civil unrest is good for thwarting the spread of a deadly virus.

nwgull · Oct 31, 2020

****ing China.

Stumpy Tim · Oct 31, 2020

Didn´t the Tories claim Keir Starmer was an "opportunist" for demanding a lockdown 2 weeks ago. I know that this is a terribly difficult time to be in government, but why are our government so often weeks behind what they should be doing? Frustrating doesn´t cover it

nwgull · Oct 31, 2020

Giraffe said:
All very valid points. I can’t argue with that. I guess it comes down to trust in those making the decisions though. We obviously don’t have access to the details but I know someone in the NHS who was told 6 weeks ago that these would be the dates of the lockdown. That seems odd to me. The same person says they have never been quieter at this time of the year.

Don’t worry, you can trust the government will come up with three-word slogans. It’s how they got elected (against the worst opposition in my lifetime).

nwgull · Oct 31, 2020

Stumpy Tim said:
Didn´t the Tories claim Keir Starmer was an "opportunist" for demanding a lockdown 2 weeks ago. I know that this is a terribly difficult time to be in government, but why are our government so often weeks behind what they should be doing? Frustrating doesn´t cover it

It is a difficult time to govern, but it’s fair to say that this lot are the worst possible government to have in charge. All because a lot of British people were tricked into thinking that immigration was the route of all their problems.

Marty___Mcfly · Oct 31, 2020

Not sure it’s needed in Brighton. Can’t see why they would apply restrictions in areas of the country where the figures are low level.

I guess this is political not logical.

Is it PotG? · Oct 31, 2020

southstandandy said:
But the football will no doubt go on

We shall still get the 'I want to get back to the stadium' brigade no doubt.

mikeyjh · Oct 31, 2020

atomised said:
I'm a selfish prick. Seriously?? For wanting to spend Christmas day with my partner and our 2 kids at home both of whom are dealing with sexual abuse at the hands of their uncle. The same as we do every year. A 5 year old and 8 year old who are going through absolute hell and all I'm.asking is to have the christmas we have had for the last 3 years. I really do not see what is wrong with that. We have no other family and if that makes me a selfish prick I will live with it. Cheers

It must be a really difficult time for you no doubt, good luck - I'd just suggest that you could have been a little more balanced in your first post. Right now, everyone is having a tough time and having to make compromises and this whole thing will work better if we're all 'in it together' so you must understand that your post read like a giant 'cluck you' to everyone else?

Anyway, hope all goes well....

golddene · Oct 31, 2020

Marty___Mcfly said:
Not sure it’s needed in Brighton. Can’t see why they would apply restrictions in areas of the country where the figures are low level.

I guess this is political not logical.

Think it's because the rise in cases is soaring, then consequently, the mortality rates will increase 'IF' the 'second' wave were to follow the same way as the first!

30th September, the confirmed cases reported for Brighton and Hove = 1082

30th October, the confirmed cases reported for Brighton and Hove = 2451.

Let's hope this does not happen and treatments have improved so that lives can be saved more readily now the Health services have gained more knowledge in therapeutics, but on the face of it these figures are worrying although if these numbers are mainly in the younger population as reportedly then hopefully their more robust immunity systems will be better able to cope.

Seagull27 · Oct 31, 2020

Marty___Mcfly said:
Not sure it’s needed in Brighton. Can’t see why they would apply restrictions in areas of the country where the figures are low level.

I guess this is political not logical.

It's probably something to do with this, and the likelihood that deaths will follow (as is happening elsewhere)

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

vegster · Oct 31, 2020

Marty___Mcfly said:
Not sure it’s needed in Brighton. Can’t see why they would apply restrictions in areas of the country where the figures are low level.

I guess this is political not logical.

Cases are rising rapidly in Brighton but the numbers are still fairly low , if they do the national lockdown it will be in order to have a unified set of standard rules across the nation. Its clear that the current three stage restrictions are not really working so something has to change.

Currently, deaths are lower this time around but that will increase as the numbers multiply and critical care beds get filled up and health workers succumb themselves. It's all about the numbers of fatalities a society can tolerate and the numbers ahead look extremely bad.

atomised · Oct 31, 2020

mikeyjh said:
It must be a really difficult time for you no doubt, good luck - I'd just suggest that you could have been a little more balanced in your first post. Right now, everyone is having a tough time and having to make compromises and this whole thing will work better if we're all 'in it together' so you must understand that your post read like a giant 'cluck you' to everyone else?

Anyway, hope all goes well....

Completely get that in hindsight. Wasn't my intent though. I have 2 kids who no matter how much we try to shield them they hear this Christmas is cancelled nonsense. Even their teachers have told them so. One of them has spent time in hospital recently due to his mental state and now needs watching 24/7 as he is considered a potential danger to himself or others. They both get incredibly distressed at the Christmas is cancelled mantra. My post was typed out of frustration at that and I apologise if it came across badly. It wasn't my intent and didn't warrant the response it got no matter how on edge someone is.

The Wookiee · Oct 31, 2020

atomised said:
I'm a selfish prick. Seriously?? For wanting to spend Christmas day with my partner and our 2 kids at home both of whom are dealing with sexual abuse at the hands of their uncle. The same as we do every year. A 5 year old and 8 year old who are going through absolute hell and all I'm.asking is to have the christmas we have had for the last 3 years. I really do not see what is wrong with that. We have no other family and if that makes me a selfish prick I will live with it. Cheers

There would be no reason why you couldn’t spend Xmas with your partner and two kids, lockdown or no lockdown - there are just 4 of you so you won’t be breaking any rules anyway ??

Anyway I do hope you, your partner and the kids have a great Xmas, sounds like you all deserve it !

Guinness Boy · Oct 31, 2020

A couple of days ago I posted in the Covid sub forum that it looked like Boris was just going to implement a lockdown by stealth by putting areas into Tier 2 or 3 one at a time. That would come with no end date. [MENTION=409]Herr Tubthumper[/MENTION] posted details of Germany's one month lockdown as an alternative and it looked much more sensible, and does come with an end date.

I've long given up trusting Johnson but I do trust Merkel. Germany have fared far better than the UK so far and it's not a completely dissimilar country.

Any new lockdown has to demonstrate real results and come with more economic support but a cautious welcome for this nonetheless, as doing nothing seems to be heading for a second wave more deadly than the first.

southstandandy · Oct 31, 2020

At least the essential services will be allowed to remain open such as food retailers, schools,& professional football.

Hugo Rune · Oct 31, 2020

Yoda said:
If that were the case it would've ripped the the entire student population in a week from one single case at each university, and that's based on the largest university in the country, University College London (41,180 total students)

Day 1. 1 case
Day 2. 6 new cases
Day 3. 36 new cases
Day 4. 216 new cases
Day 5. 1,296 new cases
Day 6. 7,776 new cases
Day 7. 46,656 new cases

Wow.

I’m glad that he’s not associated with analysing figures or anything!

Guinness Boy · Oct 31, 2020

Poojah said:
Good news, only another five years to go folks, and even then apparently life will never be normal again:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54661843

I don’t know, but this type of article really frustrates me. Yes, it features scientific opinion, presumably people better qualified than I to state what the future holds. But honestly, does it present a balanced view of scientific opinion, that a vaccine will to all intents and purposes fail to bring society back to anything resembling normality for some time, if ever?

I honestly don’t know the definitive answer to that, but I suspect not. If that’s the case, you have to question the morality of writing such a piece. National morale is going to be key these next few months, and the media has a pivotal role to play in that.

Can you imagine if, in 1940, the press would’ve been printing stories akin to “We’re fúcked, folks. May as well give up now and start learning German”. That couldn’t happen, no matter how dire things got, because we needed the energy of our people to win the war.

This isn’t a war, this is a pandemic, but there are parallels. We don’t need blind optimism, but there needs to be at least a semblance of a concept that our collective sacrifices will be worthwhile otherwise, as another poster noted, there will be serious civil unrest. And I’m no epidemiologist, but I don’t think civil unrest is good for thwarting the spread of a deadly virus.

I read it much more as a roadmap out of here, but it is the opinion of "some scientists" and the opinions journalists choose for these pieces are never going to be the bland ones that wouldn't make a story.

I'm afraid that, for me, it contains a lot of common sense. Covid is now endemic. Flu has never gone. Colds have never gone.

One of my mum's friends is a virologist who spent a lot of time at Uni studying pandemics and worked for GSK for years. She thinks that it's possible the current cold virus started out life as something similar to Covid and weakened over time. I think in one form or another it's here to stay forever.

The questions then become how do you deal with it and how good, really, are the vaccines. I can certainly see this lasting for several years with summers being "good times" and winters being pretty harsh. Certainly, if anyone thinks that Euro 2021 will be taking place across Europe with full crowds in the summer, vaccine or no vaccine, then they are stark, staring mad. It will have to move to a single country with BCD or restricted, socially distanced crowds and no away fans. Maybe now people will start to see why football is moving to a PPV model - we may not be back in a 30,000 Amex for a few seasons.

The alternative view is, of course, that no one knows for certain what will happen over the next 5 years, We are much better at science and technology now than in the past. Vaccines by themselves are certainly not a magic bullet but if we can combine a "good" vaccine with improvements in treatment of both acute and long covid and "instant" (let's say 30 minute or less) testing results then we will be very much more normal fairly soon.

And don't think any of that fills me with glee. As well as taking elderly relatives from us what this virus has done is effectively killed fun and culture. Sport, gigs, festivals and the theatre. With the exception of eating out those four things WERE my social life, so I find the above depresssing and stark. But we do need to be realistic, because that puts focus on those three medical things that could restore "normality" sooner.

The alternative, of course, is to just let it rip and carry on regardless. There are those on here who think that's the best strategy. Presumably they don't have beloved elderly relatives or know anyone working in the NHS.

Hugo Rune · Oct 31, 2020

Stumpy Tim said:
Didn´t the Tories claim Keir Starmer was an "opportunist" for demanding a lockdown 2 weeks ago. I know that this is a terribly difficult time to be in government, but why are our government so often weeks behind what they should be doing? Frustrating doesn´t cover it

The ‘Boris Saves Christmas’ narrative has been kicking about for a number of weeks, certainly in relation to Universities going 100% online with Students isolating before going home.

There will be a new 3 part slogan coming very soon to accompany this new lockdown from the pen of the machiavellian genius Cummings.

This is my guess:

Follow the rules - Protect the NHS - Save Christmas

dwayne · Oct 31, 2020

Loaded question maybe but why are universities open? Can't everything (except partying and mass gathering) be done over video conference?

Libraries were more important when I was at uni but these days most things are online.

I don't remember doing much work at uni, it was pretty much one big party!

jakarta · Oct 31, 2020

Probably not a popular post but a practical one.

We have a population in the UK almost 70 million.

Most people dying of COVID are 80 years plus.

If we had a million deaths would it really make a difference to our country/economy as opposed to lockdowns which are clearly ****ing the working lives and GDP of the UK, not to mention the effect it is taking our collective mental health?

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