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Full national lockdown (not education) 4/11 - 1/12 possible
- Thread starter Bozza
- Start date
darkwolf666
Well-known member
So good to see (not) that my local region, Swale, is heading for a Christmas number 1 that not even Simon Cowell will be able to stop... largely driven by the school bus system, with multiple schools sharing the same buses - no year bubbles on the buses. Several of the local schools have now shut, so maybe the numbers will go down!
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,300
is that a genuine reason given for Swale? seems unlikely given so many other places have school buses, especially rural districts. its been very odd watching scores for Swale and Thanet rise so dramatically, when low pre-lockdown (although high for region) . and what the f are they doing in Hull??
darkwolf666
Well-known member
No-one has officially said it is the school buses, but a bit of digging doesn't make it too hard to find a correlation.
As a little bit of background, Swale covers the areas Sittingbourne, Faversham and the Isle of Sheppey.
The Isle of Sheppey has one senior school for 11 plus children, which means many have to travel to and from school by the local bus services. These buses are shared between service from the island to the 5 senior schools in Sittingbourne. There is no bubble active on these buses, so children travel with others of any age from any school.
Further analysis shows that as you move away from Sittingbourne to the satellite areas covered by the bus service, the higher the infection rates, Newington, Kemsley and Iwade, Sheerness and Minster get progressively higher levels of infection, possibly as the kids spend longer on the buses.
Several schools have now shut completely for the next two weeks as there is a lack of staff as well as pupil numbers dropping.
The other parts of Swale, Sittingbourne and Faversham have relatively low infection rates.
The fly in the ointment of this analysis is the 3 prisons on the IoS, but it's difficult to get data for them...
Swales overall figures were low until the school's went back, the prisons have been there all the time!
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darkwolf666
Well-known member
As an update on this, Meridian evening news had an article on Swale being the 2nd worse borough in the country, and not a single mention of schools or school transport from our MP Gordon Henderson, who was wishy washy in the extreme.
Swale had low infection rates until September, then they went through the roof - wonder what happened in September to make the figures rise so?
Stop ignoring the elephant in the room and at least talk about it...
BBC SE just covered Swale. No guesses as to the reasons for the awful numbers there now.
KentLive have covered the schools angle in Swale. A short spike when the schools went back, then contained with low numbers for the rest of September.
Could it also be that aspect that you and I have covered before, of a sizeable minority of individuals disobeying all the rules, the same in Hull? When numbers became horrendous in Bolton and others parts of Lancs, I heard public health experts (not evil Tory politicians you’ll be relieved to know) mention on more than one occasion about flagrant non compliance by large sections of their communities. We might’ve been prepared to continue to play by the rules, but possibly 10m’s of others have pandemic fatigue. In recent weeks in our nearest Aldi, loads of females in their 20’s and 30’s and the odd young bloke not wearing a face mask at all.
darkwolf666
Well-known member
September wasn’t the problem, it has been in particular from October half term. The Sittingbourne area, as of today, has multiple schools (primary and senior) either fully closed or partially closed to year groups. Clearly there is a problem!
Yes non conformity is a problem, but I am sure that alone will not have caused such a massive dramatic spike...! A view shared by our MP - who just can’t bring himself to shine the light on education, as there is an apparent desperate need to keep schools open at all costs!
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,300
so did everywhere. we know schools going back caused a rise in infection rates (and that it would happen). the question is why has Swale gone up faster and so high.
darkwolf666
Well-known member
I don't know what other areas do regarding school transport, but here in Swale there are dedicated school buses that pick up from the 5 senior schools and ferry the children back to their home areas.
The understanding for most schools is that pupils would be kept in year bubbles, to attempt to contain any cross infections between age groups.
Here not only is that not possible, due to the transport issues, but also, again because of the transport problem year groups from a combination of up to 5 schools are travelling together at the same time - so any notion of a bubble has clearly gone out of the window.
If the school transport isn't the issue I would really like to know what the problem is - maybe we just a population of local fukwits who don't care!
Throughout the UK, there must be countless areas with multiple schools using buses, not just Swale. Driving through Newick and all the village near there for example, there are buses taking half the kids to Chailey and others taking the other half the other way to Uckfield. Plus countless minibuses ferrying kids to a host of independent prep and senior schools. As well as coaches taking late teens to Plumpton College.
Is anyone watching the BBC2 Programme?
What a complete mess this has been.
What a complete mess this has been.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,300
a bit. seem the scientist whose advice we followed didnt know much, making up models as they went along, notably didnt know how carehomes operate.
The care home point was just after I posted - quite the bomb shell, based everything on not knowing on how care homes work and didn’t check.
I slightly missed part of the conversation with Susan Michie - it looked like she said she was pushing for lockdown before the Liverpool game but they showed a clip of her in March defending the Govs actions, followed by back tracking.
No ones come out of that well.
Yes.
It revealed and this was said at the time, that scientists disagreed throughout February and March. That’s normal I gather. The BBC in this prog interviewed scientists who explained why they dissented with the mainstream in March, they came across as balanced folk without hyperbole, but the BBC didn’t seem to interview the mainstream scientists who hadn’t initially wanted a Lockdown.
Interestingly, even the dissenters who’ve now been proved correct, felt that that the great British public would only accept a month’s lockdown at the time, maximum.
The huge numbers of football fans moving around Europe in Feb and March for CL fixtures was a major f*ck up.
darkwolf666
Well-known member
Just leaves the funk wits option then...
When you were shielding, you missed them luckily for you. Not just from CV19, but it might’ve annoyed you.
I remember in April at one of the press conferences, JVT or one of the other civil servants, saying they were really grateful for 85% public compliance. Fair enough, good citizens. But 15% arrogant ********s.
darkwolf666
Well-known member
Finally, rather belatedly it appears the government now concede there is a problem with education in Kent... Yet another horse disappearing over the hill...