[Politics] Tonight’s Debate

Music City Gull · Oct 23, 2020

Even though I won’t be watching, we live a few blocks from the debate location. I figure I should be a good host and start the debate thread for this evening. Wife drives by the campus on her way home from the hospital and took some pictures. She has to stay dressed in case something happens and she has to go in. Going to be interesting tonight...

seagullwedgee · Oct 23, 2020

Well moderated, much more informative. But Joe dithered. I can see them spinning this to say Trump improved his chances more than Joe improved his tonight.

Music City Gull · Oct 23, 2020

seagullwedgee said:
Well moderated, much more informative. But Joe dithered. I can see them spinning this to say Trump improved his chances more than Joe improved his tonight.

Trump did as good as he could possibly do tonight. My buddies still in politics said the mic cutting helped Trump a lot and Biden’s biggest mistake was his comment about eliminating oil. Won’t play well in the energy swing states. They still think it’ll be Biden and not close, but similar to 2016 Trumps internal numbers on minority support give him a better chance than what’s being stated.

I’ll reiterate, like the last debate where I was one of the only people on here to say Trump lost big, I am not a Trump fan and I’m not a Biden fan. I simply used to work in this industry and sharing what my bud’s that are still in it deep are saying unfiltered.

Trumps motorcade came a block from our house so my wife and I went out to see it. Can’t very often say you’re 15 feet from one of the most powerful and polarizing people in the world. Took a video of it but unfortunately the sirens messed with the clarity. This is a screenshot of him at 7:40 with the debate starting at 8.

Edit to add - I was talking to the officer who had our side street cut off. He said he’d been there since 10 am. One of the most amazing things to me is the behind the scenes security for the president. Had a buddy who was secret service for Bush and Obama, he’s go somewhere in the world two weeks before the president would be there and would sit on a rooftop making sure nobody was planting anything. We wondered a month ago why the city repaved Wedgewood (the road he’s on in the pic). Was all for safety protocols.

AZ Gull · Oct 23, 2020

Music City Gull said:
Trump did as good as he could possibly do tonight. My buddies still in politics said the mic cutting helped Trump a lot and Biden’s biggest mistake was his comment about eliminating oil. Won’t play well in the energy swing states. They still think it’ll be Biden and not close, but similar to 2016 Trumps internal numbers on minority support give him a better chance than what’s being stated.

I’ll reiterate, like the last debate where I was one of the only people on here to say Trump lost big, I am not a Trump fan and I’m not a Biden fan. I simply used to work in this industry and sharing what my bud’s that are still in it deep are saying unfiltered.

Trumps motorcade came a block from our house so my wife and I went out to see it. Can’t very often say you’re 15 feet from one of the most powerful and polarizing people in the world. Took a video of it but unfortunately the sirens messed with the clarity. This is a screenshot of him at 7:40 with the debate starting at 8.

Edit to add - I was talking to the officer who had our side street cut off. He said he’d been there since 10 am. One of the most amazing things to me is the behind the scenes security for the president. Had a buddy who was secret service for Bush and Obama, he’s go somewhere in the world two weeks before the president would be there and would sit on a rooftop making sure nobody was planting anything. We wondered a month ago why the city repaved Wedgewood (the road he’s on in the pic). Was all for safety protocols.

View attachment 129682

It certainly is fascinating to get a close-up glimpse of the organisation surrounding the most powerful position in the world. I was studying at the University of Warwick in December 2000 when President Clinton visited and gave a speech (it was only a month before he left office, in fact I think it was his final official overseas event). His chopper landed in the field next to my halls of residence.

Music City Gull · Oct 23, 2020

AZ Gull said:
It certainly is fascinating to get a close-up glimpse of the organisation surrounding the most powerful position in the world. I was studying at the University of Warwick in December 2000 when President Clinton visited and gave a speech (it was only a month before he left office, in fact I think it was his final official overseas event). His chopper landed in the field next to my halls of residence.

I bet that was a really interesting experience! Was it Marine One? No telling how armored it is. My wife didn’t believe me when I told her how expensive his car is that he’s in in my pic, even the tires are bullet proof. There was a lady who pulled up behind the officers car, she got out and told him she was trying to get across the street to her house. He had his hand on his gun the entire interaction because they are trained to not mess around and take no chances (this was about two minutes before his motorcade passed).

Incidentally, my friend that was former secret service said that at their annual Christmas party every year presidents stop by as a tradition. He said the two nicest people were Bill Clinton and young Bush and the one everyone hated was Hillary (again, just a story from him and not a political thing). My friend spent a few years trying to get into the secret service and meanwhile worked in a field office in Buffalo, NY for the FBI. He passed everything on a yearly basis except for one thing he had to lower - they failed him because his cholesterol was too high. He left when he and his wife had their first child.

AZ Gull · Oct 23, 2020

Music City Gull said:
I bet that was a really interesting experience! Was it Marine One? No telling how armored it is. My wife didn’t believe me when I told her how expensive his car is that he’s in in my pic, even the tires are bullet proof. There was a lady who pulled up behind the officers car, she got out and told him she was trying to get across the street to her house. He had his hand on his gun the entire interaction because they are trained to not mess around and take no chances (this was about two minutes before his motorcade passed).

Incidentally, my friend that was former secret service said that at their annual Christmas party every year presidents stop by as a tradition. He said the two nicest people were Bill Clinton and young Bush and the one everyone hated was Hillary (again, just a story from him and not a political thing). My friend spent a few years trying to get into the secret service and meanwhile worked in a field office in Buffalo, NY for the FBI. He passed everything on a yearly basis except for one thing he had to lower - they failed him because his cholesterol was too high. He left when he and his wife had their first child.

Don't know if it was Marine One - you can see for yourself in the video here, it lands at about 3:10 onwards - Blair and Clinton come to Warwick

Music City Gull · Oct 23, 2020

AZ Gull said:
Don't know if it was Marine One - you can see for yourself in the video here, it lands at about 3:10 onwards - Blair and Clinton come to Warwick

Thanks! Yep, it is. I love the behind the scenes stuff from their protection. Here is a screenshot from the video and then marine one. Impressive stuff that I’d love to see in person. I think they recently did like a billion dollar upgrade to its protection capabilities.

highflyer · Oct 23, 2020

Aaaannndd back to the debate

Did anyone watch all the way through?

From what I can tell from reviews and clips, it was an entirely predictable, and relatively dull, draw. Trump got the memo on not coming across as an arse (+ the mute button helped him in that regard) while, no matter how much preparation he does, Biden seems incapable of coming over as anything other than slightly elderly and completely uninspiring. Both sides threw a bit of mud, none of which is likely to stick any more than it already has.

'Snap Polls' show Biden as the winner, but I think that simply reflects that he's got more support nationally and that people simply took what they wanted from the debate, eg if you already supported Trump you think he won and vice versa. Most pundits seem to be strongly of the opinion that this debate wil make very little difference.

In fact everything I have seen in the last 2-3 weeks indicates to me that this election is pretty much done. An awful lot of voting has already happened and very few people are left undecided. The polls have been amazingly steady. The changes we have seen, in terms of polling averages (with Biden opening a bigger lead a couple of weeks ago and then Trump closing slightly more recently), are entirely in line with what would be expected if the real situation was staying largely unchanged, with Biden sitting on a national lead of 6-8 points, but much closer in key states. All that I think has happened is that Republican leaning polls (showing Trump still losing but by less than the average) were being held back, and a lot more Democrat leaning polls (showing double digit + leads for Biden) were being quickly released. Once the polling average was high enough, the Republicans could release their polls knowing that while they may not be great for Trump, they will bring the average down and make it look like Trump has momentum in the final two weeks...I suspect things now settle and stay more or less the same, or with a slight move towards Trump. And it will end up being pretty close in a number of swing states. Biden will probably win, but Trump could still squeak over the line.

That there will not be a 'red wave' is about the ONLY certainty from here.

You have not been charged for this uninformed, guesswork based, 'analysis'.

LamieRobertson · Oct 23, 2020

Music City Gull said:
Trump did as good as he could possibly do tonight. My buddies still in politics said the mic cutting helped Trump a lot and Biden’s biggest mistake was his comment about eliminating oil. Won’t play well in the energy swing states. They still think it’ll be Biden and not close, but similar to 2016 Trumps internal numbers on minority support give him a better chance than what’s being stated.

I’ll reiterate, like the last debate where I was one of the only people on here to say Trump lost big, I am not a Trump fan and I’m not a Biden fan. I simply used to work in this industry and sharing what my bud’s that are still in it deep are saying unfiltered.

Trumps motorcade came a block from our house so my wife and I went out to see it. Can’t very often say you’re 15 feet from one of the most powerful and polarizing people in the world. Took a video of it but unfortunately the sirens messed with the clarity. This is a screenshot of him at 7:40 with the debate starting at 8.

Edit to add - I was talking to the officer who had our side street cut off. He said he’d been there since 10 am. One of the most amazing things to me is the behind the scenes security for the president. Had a buddy who was secret service for Bush and Obama, he’s go somewhere in the world two weeks before the president would be there and would sit on a rooftop making sure nobody was planting anything. We wondered a month ago why the city repaved Wedgewood (the road he’s on in the pic). Was all for safety protocols.

View attachment 129682

Very authentic colour use for Trump you’ve done there

highflyer · Oct 23, 2020

LamieRobertson said:
Very authentic colour use for Trump you’ve done there

I've used image enhancement software - I think it improves the clarity slighty.

Mexican Seagull · Oct 23, 2020

I sat through the whole debat, was ok compared to the first one. More real debat though Trump can't stop being very agressive (rude) and continually throwing wild accusations and at same time saving everything he has done is just world class....Biden at least tried to speak to all Americans which Trump clearly doesn't. Main winner in my view is President Xi who surely can't believe his luck as he watches these two. Losers the American people and the rest of us (free world??). Stunning how polarised the US has become.

dingodan · Oct 23, 2020

I thought at the start that Biden might be edging the debate, but as it went on I think Trump started to do better, and probably he won overall. It wasn't really so much about how either of them came across, Trump came across as he usually does, a bit arrogant. Biden came across as he usually does, a bit weak, although perhaps a little better than usual. But this debate was more about the substantive points, and Biden has a tough time making a case for himself because he isn't the new guy, he has a record and it's not great. While Trump can say that Biden created the 1994 crime bill, and had a chance to do something about it in his 8 years in the Whitehouse, and Trump can say he did Criminal Justice reform in his first 4 years, Biden doesn't really have a leg to stand on. Same with healthcare. All he can say is that he will fix problems he took part in creating, and/or didn't fix when he had the chance.

I also thought that there were a few moments where Biden really showed that he is your typical politician. Obama was able to be convincing when he speaks, but there were a couple of Biden's "best" moments which looked and sounded like he had practiced them a thousand times, like "It's not red states, or blue states, it's the United States", or "It's not about my family, or his family, it's about your family". Those moments have been quoted as good lines, but to me they came across actually as quite hollow and cheesy. Trump doesn't really have those salesman zingers in him, but I actually think, unless you can deliver like Obama, which niether of them can, they aren't a great look, they come across as fake.

As for the race, I think it's probably 50/50. The polls are close to where they were with Clinton I think, so not sure they mean much. It will be interesting to see who wins, but honestly, as much as I don't like Trump, I think Biden represents going back to the old establishment politics where it doesn't matter who you vote for, nothing changes and nothing gets done no matter which party or President gets elected. For all his faults Trump is probably a better President than Biden would be.

Greg Bobkin · Oct 23, 2020

highflyer said:
Aaaannndd back to the debate

Did anyone watch all the way through?

From what I can tell from reviews and clips, it was an entirely predictable, and relatively dull, draw. Trump got the memo on not coming across as an arse (+ the mute button helped him in that regard) while, no matter how much preparation he does, Biden seems incapable of coming over as anything other than slightly elderly and completely uninspiring. Both sides threw a bit of mud, none of which is likely to stick any more than it already has.

'Snap Polls' show Biden as the winner, but I think that simply reflects that he's got more support nationally and that people simply took what they wanted from the debate, eg if you already supported Trump you think he won and vice versa. Most pundits seem to be strongly of the opinion that this debate wil make very little difference.

In fact everything I have seen in the last 2-3 weeks indicates to me that this election is pretty much done. An awful lot of voting has already happened and very few people are left undecided. The polls have been amazingly steady. The changes we have seen, in terms of polling averages (with Biden opening a bigger lead a couple of weeks ago and then Trump closing slightly more recently), are entirely in line with what would be expected if the real situation was staying largely unchanged, with Biden sitting on a national lead of 6-8 points, but much closer in key states. All that I think has happened is that Republican leaning polls (showing Trump still losing but by less than the average) were being held back, and a lot more Democrat leaning polls (showing double digit + leads for Biden) were being quickly released. Once the polling average was high enough, the Republicans could release their polls knowing that while they may not be great for Trump, they will bring the average down and make it look like Trump has momentum in the final two weeks...I suspect things now settle and stay more or less the same, or with a slight move towards Trump. And it will end up being pretty close in a number of swing states. Biden will probably win, but Trump could still squeak over the line.

That there will not be a 'red wave' is about the ONLY certainty from here.

You have not been charged for this uninformed, guesswork based, 'analysis'.

Eh?

highflyer · Oct 23, 2020

Greg Bobkin said:
Eh?

What I meant is that most people have already made up their mind (or already voted) and, unless something fairly cataclysmic happens, debates, mud slinging etc are unlikely to make much difference from here on.

But what we don't know yet is HOW people have made up their minds, especially in the states that matter.

Greg Bobkin · Oct 23, 2020

highflyer said:
What I meant is that most people have already made up their mind (or already voted) and, unless something fairly cataclysmic happens, debates, mud slinging etc are unlikely to make much difference from here on.

But what we don't know yet is HOW people have made up their minds, especially in the states that matter.

Gotcha

I tend to agree that these debates are arguably more for the candidates to grandstand themselves to their supporters, as opposed to trying to win new voters. Too late in the day for that, especially when so many have already voted by post.

Withdean11 · Oct 23, 2020

Music City Gull said:
Trump did as good as he could possibly do tonight. My buddies still in politics said the mic cutting helped Trump a lot and Biden’s biggest mistake was his comment about eliminating oil. Won’t play well in the energy swing states. They still think it’ll be Biden and not close, but similar to 2016 Trumps internal numbers on minority support give him a better chance than what’s being stated.

I’ll reiterate, like the last debate where I was one of the only people on here to say Trump lost big, I am not a Trump fan and I’m not a Biden fan. I simply used to work in this industry and sharing what my bud’s that are still in it deep are saying unfiltered.

Trumps motorcade came a block from our house so my wife and I went out to see it. Can’t very often say you’re 15 feet from one of the most powerful and polarizing people in the world. Took a video of it but unfortunately the sirens messed with the clarity. This is a screenshot of him at 7:40 with the debate starting at 8.

Edit to add - I was talking to the officer who had our side street cut off. He said he’d been there since 10 am. One of the most amazing things to me is the behind the scenes security for the president. Had a buddy who was secret service for Bush and Obama, he’s go somewhere in the world two weeks before the president would be there and would sit on a rooftop making sure nobody was planting anything. We wondered a month ago why the city repaved Wedgewood (the road he’s on in the pic). Was all for safety protocols.

View attachment 129682

Out of interest, how do you see the map looking come election night?

I have it it much closer than you by the sounds of things. I can't see any of the southern states (FL,GA,NC) going blue, but have Biden winning WI,MI & PA and I very narrow win on the EV 278-260.

I don't think the polls are all that accurate, as Trump will undoubtedly have a higher portion of hidden support.

peterward · Oct 23, 2020

highflyer said:
Aaaannndd back to the debate

Did anyone watch all the way through?

From what I can tell from reviews and clips, it was an entirely predictable, and relatively dull, draw. Trump got the memo on not coming across as an arse (+ the mute button helped him in that regard) while, no matter how much preparation he does, Biden seems incapable of coming over as anything other than slightly elderly and completely uninspiring. Both sides threw a bit of mud, none of which is likely to stick any more than it already has.

'Snap Polls' show Biden as the winner, but I think that simply reflects that he's got more support nationally and that people simply took what they wanted from the debate, eg if you already supported Trump you think he won and vice versa. Most pundits seem to be strongly of the opinion that this debate wil make very little difference.

In fact everything I have seen in the last 2-3 weeks indicates to me that this election is pretty much done. An awful lot of voting has already happened and very few people are left undecided. The polls have been amazingly steady. The changes we have seen, in terms of polling averages (with Biden opening a bigger lead a couple of weeks ago and then Trump closing slightly more recently), are entirely in line with what would be expected if the real situation was staying largely unchanged, with Biden sitting on a national lead of 6-8 points, but much closer in key states. All that I think has happened is that Republican leaning polls (showing Trump still losing but by less than the average) were being held back, and a lot more Democrat leaning polls (showing double digit + leads for Biden) were being quickly released. Once the polling average was high enough, the Republicans could release their polls knowing that while they may not be great for Trump, they will bring the average down and make it look like Trump has momentum in the final two weeks...I suspect things now settle and stay more or less the same, or with a slight move towards Trump. And it will end up being pretty close in a number of swing states. Biden will probably win, but Trump could still squeak over the line.

That there will not be a 'red wave' is about the ONLY certainty from here.

You have not been charged for this uninformed, guesswork based, 'analysis'.

Will be interesting to see polling in the next few days in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania after the Oil comments.

for the kind of uniform swing needed at this stage, with already 50 million votes cast.

I can only seen, clear unequivocal proof that Biden was making millions from dodgy deals (rather than this obvious muck raking BS) - though that may still not be enough when against a corrupt business man like Trump.

Or God forbid - Biden snuffs it in the next 11 days (Then i have no idea what would happen?).

Assuming he is still with us on November 3rd and no massive surprises on either side. I hope and pray the world can begin its recovery from this toxic mess.

If Trump does lose....what odds on Putin dumping/leaking whatever dirt he then has on Trump? Right now hes the best for Russian interests, but if he's gone anyway, the chaos he could cause post election with Trump "Kompromat" might just be too tempting.

Music City Gull · Oct 23, 2020

Withdean11 said:
Out of interest, how do you see the map looking come election night?

I have it it much closer than you by the sounds of things. I can't see any of the southern states (FL,GA,NC) going blue, but have Biden winning WI,MI & PA and I very narrow win on the EV 278-260.

I don't think the polls are all that accurate, as Trump will undoubtedly have a higher portion of hidden support.

My thoughts and texts with folks between last night and this morning have me thinking Biden did much worse last night with the undecided vote than people thought. I didn’t realize that Trump even referenced his internal numbers (having high support with minorities) during the debate and Biden didn’t disagree with him. Responses from the undecided voters in energy swing states not only have local Democrats distancing themselves from the oil comment but Biden’s campaign is trying to walk it back. That’s very hard to do when you’re talking risking jobs with the lower middle to middle class.

64%-70% of 65+ year olds in NC with absentee ballots have already voted with 22% of those under 25 absentee ballots already voting. That’s not a good sign for Democrats in that swing state. Some people have been saying all along that Trump has voters that will not admit they are Trump voters and that also sounds like it might be a bigger number, especially with minorities.

I’d still give the election to Biden because outsiders don’t understand what Trump did in 2016 was a masterpiece in political strategy. But it’ll be closer than what the media is saying right now and Biden basically did as bad a job as he could do last night. He energized absolutely nobody to go vote for him.

PA is in bigger play now. Still think NC might go to Biden with the growth of Charlotte and DC voters moving down.

My iPad is lagging this morning so I apologize for the annoying typos.

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[Politics] Tonight’s Debate

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