Circuit breaker

Kinky Gerbil · Oct 13, 2020

Yep. Most people still think the risk is about catching it and not about spreading it.

Those that strut around saying they are not worried about it really don't understand how viruses spread nor the knock on effects.

We need to somehow tell them that it's not about preventing them from ending up in hospital but ensuring that the 30-year old mother can get early vital breast cancer treatment.

The Gov shut down everything except covid even with the nightingale hospitals sitting empty , missed cancer appointments is on them - some doctors are still refusing to do face to face appointments.

Problem is that most were scared shitless when Covid first hit, now plenty seem willing to risk themselves and others, so a Lockdown will be nowhere near as effective next time.

Some of these people’s have nothing left to lose, have you seen the gyms in Liverpool have put out a statement saying they are not shutting? They shut again they go under.

macbeth · Oct 13, 2020

I have mixed opinions on this.

Part of me wants it to happen, it would be better than living in a perpetual state of disarray and panic like we are now, but obviously there's huge economic and mental health consequences involved (though I would also add that the current state of affairs also carries huge mental/economic tolls...we haven't *really* reopened and many people are still stuck in a depression from the bleakness of all the chaos- purgatory does nobody any favours).

furthermore, it doesn't really give a ringing endorsement of our efforts to 'live with the virus', does it? jumping back into lockdown because we aren't capable of controlling the virus (working test and trace system etc.) is really untenable. an perhaps unnecessary? when you consider that the amount of positive tests in places like Merseyside and Manchester are slowing/ levelling off/ falling (source: https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1316053946717306881)

and then of course, there is the advice from the WHO and many many experts that we should stop doing lockdowns and that such a blunt force tool is no way to deal with this virus. but then again, I simply do not believe this government is competent enough to implement the measures (testing, restrictions that actually help etc.) that would enable us to 'live with the virus'. they're an absolute clown show.

But then again, I am fairly optimistic we'll have a vaccine sooner rather than later (mainly due to [MENTION=12101]Mellotron[/MENTION]'s fantastic stats and news updates :bowdown:

) so maybe it is just a case of riding it out until that's available (a circuit breaker to keep a lid on things would help that)

ermmmm...ermmmmm....FENCE!

beorhthelm · Oct 13, 2020

midnight_rendezvous said:
And the reason it ‘didn’t work’ back in Spring can’t possibly be in part because the government didn’t implement mass testing and tracing...

could be a factor, so could a lot of things, including people simply not following the protocol.

Sorrel · Oct 13, 2020

I don't want one because those who want stronger measures will not be satisfied if they get what they want and will then start agitating for more restrictions. The sooner and quicker we give in to them, the more they will try and force upon us.

It's important we keep society and the economy going and at the same time support those who are unable or unwilling to take part in society. Much better to find a pattern that allows society to keep functioning.

vegster · Oct 13, 2020

The Wizard said:
So rinse repeat ‘circuit breaker’ lockdowns then, what happens when they release restrictions?

Remember what happened the last time we had a ‘3 week lockdown’ It’s time to say no. Pretty much everyone else in Europe is doing everything they can to avoid any lockdown, yet some people in high places in this country appear to be desperate for one? Why?

<Probably a thread for the COVID section BTW>

The last lockdown actually worked ! cases plummeted but, we came back from that too quickly without adequate ( not World Beating ) Test, Track and Trace in place. We thought we were going to get swamped with cases by the end of March, here we are in October and new cases may well hit 20,000 a day within a week, we are better at treating it but the rate of new infections means that we have lost what little control we had and deaths are rising and, will continue to rise without drastic action.

Is it PotG? · Oct 13, 2020

Mustafa said:
No.

Economy can't take such another big hit for the sake of merely postponing the inevitable.

Corona is here for good. We just need to accept this and get back to normal.

And the deaths amongst the elderly and vulnerable?

happypig · Oct 13, 2020

Clearly some places are getting right, whether that's due to the people or the demographics isn't clear (although it really should be by now as the government should have been gathering data on infections)and a "one size fits all" lockdown wouldn't be right at this time. If cases/hospitalisations start rising in areas where it's currently quite low, then we may need to reconsider.
These are screen grabs off the BBC news site (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274) and it's clear that there are huge differences.

A1X · Oct 13, 2020

Mustafa said:
Corona is here for good. We just need to accept this and get back to normal.

I'd be genuinely fascinated to know what body count the people who keep pushing for this are prepared to tolerate.

Blue Valkyrie · Oct 13, 2020

They need to shut the schools between half term and the Christmas holidays to have any chance of halting wave 2.

beorhthelm · Oct 13, 2020

happypig said:
Clearly some places are getting right, whether that's due to the people or the demographics isn't clear (although it really should be by now as the government should have been gathering data on infections)

theres some very clear demographics data published, there's just no discussion about it. we're not the only ones, saw a similar map of Belgium and high/med areas shows the border between Walloon and Flanders regions.

midnight_rendezvous · Oct 13, 2020

beorhthelm said:
could be a factor, so could a lot of things, including people simply not following the protocol.

Could be? Really? You're going to sit there and try and suggest it only might be a factor?

As for people not following protocol, firstly, the advice given, especially at the start was incredibly vague and ambiguous, and secondly most people did follow protocol. Sure, there was some people didn't but the vast majority did. That is, until a certain Mr Cummings decided to test out his eye sight...

Blue Valkyrie · Oct 13, 2020

Mustafa said:
No.

Economy can't take such another big hit for the sake of merely postponing the inevitable.

Corona is here for good. We just need to accept this and get back to normal.

No it isn't. Medical science will beat it - or mitigate it down to the effects of the common cold - but we need to buy the science some time.

happypig · Oct 13, 2020

beorhthelm said:
theres some very clear demographics data published, there's just no discussion about it. we're not the only ones, saw a similar map of Belgium and high/med areas shows the border between Walloon and Flanders regions.

Can you point me at it ? I'd be interested to look at it.

The Merry Prankster · Oct 13, 2020

Reddleman said:
Absolutely not. Data in no way merits such an approach.

Can you list your scientific qualifications?

I want to know if I should listen to you or SAGE

dazzer6666 · Oct 13, 2020

Not as suggested. Two weeks isn't enough to be effective, and I don't think adherence will be that strong. Its also unnecessary in many areas............

beorhthelm · Oct 13, 2020

happypig said:
Can you point me at it ? I'd be interested to look at it.

[tweet]1314651637831675910[/tweet]

easier to find than i thought. down the tread a similar one of Switzerland, more notable for incredibly low levels in Germany and Austria - we should be doing what ever they are doing because its working.

Farehamseagull · Oct 13, 2020

For me it just can’t happen. The most important thing to me is keeping a roof over my partner and childrens heads and keeping them fed so I will only abide by and accept a lockdown if they pay my mortgage and food bills for the next few months.

I literally can’t afford another lockdown, I’ve just about survived the last 6 months financially thanks to the mortgage holiday I took having been furloughed and then lost a job due to the impact of the pandemic as the company couldn’t continue. Started a new job a couple of months ago and I love it, it’s going brilliantly and I can see light at the end of the tunnel to get back on my feet financially. Dealing with people face to face in a totally Covid secure way. Another lockdown will ruin all of that.

So many people are going to be in a similar and worse situation and if the same level of financial support from the government and banks is not available again, I can’t see people going along with it. We need to find a way of dealing with the virus day to day in as normal and safe way as possible. The country’s mental state and economy can’t deal with another lockdown.

Giraffe · Oct 13, 2020

No. It’s time to just get on with it. Protect the vulnerable but let everyone else take their chances now. The downside of repeated lockdowns and bail out from the Government is far worse than the virus.

A1X · Oct 13, 2020

Mustafa said:
As they are less likely to be in work, vulnerable groups should be shielded.

Stopping healthy working people from working is not an option that should be considered again.

What about if those "healthy working people" are living with vulnerable people who should be shielded, as will often be the case under the current housing market with younger people living with parents? People can also work just as effectively from home in many professions.

Sorrel · Oct 13, 2020

A1X said:
I'd be genuinely fascinated to know what body count the people who keep pushing for this are prepared to tolerate.

We can use the ONS figures for England and Wales to find out - at the end of the year - what percentage of deaths above expected occurred this year. The current figures show that 52,345 more deaths have occurred than the average 5 year expectation - 14% more deaths than expected.

If we could get the annual Covid deaths lower than the level of normal flu & pneumonia deaths, which these days are between 25,000 and 35,000 a year, then it would be a reasonably good outcome. It depends, though, on whether there is a corresponding drop in the number of flu and pneumonia deaths (as there has been seen somewhat this year).

The number of excess Winter deaths we have had in some previous years (see chart below), which in the least worst years were around 18,000 but usually in the mid 20,000s would be even better to reach.

Beyond that I think we would need to be in entirely wiping out the disease area - at that point we need to start considering the chances of the restrictions causing more deaths in themselves than the prevention saves. It's very hard to determine the level of excess non-Covid deaths, but from what I've read it's up a few thousand, but not a large amount more.

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