[Football] Big Team Bias

Uter · Sep 28, 2020

Mo Gosfield said:
Five minutes of stoppage time included all the substitutions and injury time. Solly scored in the 95th minute so it was not unreasonable to add on another 30 seconds for his goal. Even being generous, he could have added another minute. The ref had two opportunities when the ball went out of play ( throw-in and corner ) but continued to play on. The cross that was blocked, leading to the corner, appeared to be over the line but was not reviewed. No, the facts are irrefutable. He played more ' over-time ' than was warranted.

Didn't a similar thing happen against Arsenal at home last season? My recollection is that Maupay scored the winner just as the added time was supposedly up. But Arsenal not only had time to kick off, they played on for 2 more minutes or possibly more, although I think perhaps there was a stoppage for with the Maupay/Guendouzi incident?

I think against Man Utd yesterday there was a substitution just before full time, which was probably after referee had indicated to the 4th official how much time to add, so that probably explains 30 seconds. I get that time could also be added for excessive celebrations, so perhaps another 30 seconds for that. Even with both those incidents, I cannot really work out how an extra 90 seconds were played up to the hand ball. Had March missed that header would he have allowed us an extra minute, or would he have blown right on 95 minutes?

Uter · Sep 28, 2020

I think people probably need to be aware of their own biases when looking for evidence to support or disprove whether referee bias is real or not.

This study supports the theory that successful teams benefit from referee bias:

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspor.2020.00019/full

Whereas this one does not:

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/20...-certain-teams-in-the-english-premier-league/

If you want to prove a point on the internet you can usually find what you want somewhere. Motivated reasoning and confirmation bias at work.

Personally, I think it probably is a thing, but quite minor, so very hard to detect and prove.

vagabond · Sep 28, 2020

Mo Gosfield said:
Five minutes of stoppage time included all the substitutions and injury time. Solly scored in the 95th minute so it was not unreasonable to add on another 30 seconds for his goal. Even being generous, he could have added another minute. The ref had two opportunities when the ball went out of play ( throw-in and corner ) but continued to play on. The cross that was blocked, leading to the corner, appeared to be over the line but was not reviewed. No, the facts are irrefutable. He played more ' over-time ' than was warranted.

Correct.

Please can people not lose sight of this, rather than going through historical VAR decisions and random stats and slating people for making accurate observations.

The bloke played over 97minutes when it was 5 mins injury time. It’s unforgivable. It’s either subtle bias or gross incompetence for an elite level referee. For either reason he should be not be refereeing at this level.

Super Steve Earle · Sep 28, 2020

wellquickwoody said:
Each to their own I guess, but I hate it with a passion.

Yes, it allows more accurate decisions. End of positives.

It breaks up play, it slows the game down, it leads to ridiculous scenes like yesterday. Most importantly, it is refereeing for armchair fans. Fans who actually go to games are having a less enjoyable matcha experience.

As you say, each to their own. We are all armchair fans at the moment, but I am certainly not by choice. You have put your opinions as facts, but they are just opinions. I go to every live home game and VAR enhances my match day experience. We were victims of some diabolical refereeing decisions in the few years prior to VAR and I am much happier that most decisions for either team are generally correct by whatever margins. I do resent the implication that I only like VAR because I'm an armchair fan. What I don't like this season is the revised handball rules, which are the same with or without VAR, and the touchline reviews. For example there is no way, the Connolly penalty decision on Saturday could be reversing a clear and obvious error. The ref was managed by Hoops.

Sheebo · Sep 28, 2020

Uter said:
Small sample, so cannot draw any real conclusions, especially as it's so skewed by Man Utd's +7, but:

Big 6 +1.17
The rest -0.38

If that continues then it's going to be harder to argue that this is just down to randomness.

Maybe it only has a tiny over effect a season, but when you consider other areas where it's possible for bias to occur, e.g. time-keeping, cards, free kicks it could add up to a few extra points a season.

The bias goes a lot, lot wider than VAR. It has always been here..

rippleman · Sep 28, 2020

Swansman said:
This part is weird, I dont think its within the rules in any other league as far as I know. Really odd.

And it never used to be.

When I was reffing the rule in the professional leagues (not that I ever reffed in the Football League!) was that you could never referee your home town team.

Martin Bodenham was born in Brighton and I have no recollection of him ever being allowed to referee a BHAFC league game (although I'm pretty sure he reffed us in pre-season friendlies, testimonials etc).

Mo Gosfield · Sep 28, 2020

rippleman said:
And it never used to be.

When I was reffing the rule in the professional leagues (not that I ever reffed in the Football League!) was that you could never referee your home town team.

Martin Bodenham was born in Brighton and I have no recollection of him ever being allowed to referee a BHAFC league game (although I'm pretty sure he reffed us in pre-season friendlies, testimonials etc).

I'm pretty certain I spoke to Martin about this years ago and he confirmed that he wasn't allowed to do any of our games, even when he moved to the West Country.

Seasider78 · Sep 28, 2020

The Wizard said:
I don’t really understand the ‘subconscious’ bias theory, if I was a ref and there was any subconscious bias surely it would be for the under dog wouldn’t it? Why would there be any underlying bias towards a big team because of stature?

I do think there is something in the bias theory, I just can’t really understand why referees would be subconsciously bias towards bigger teams.

If you don’t give Manchester United or Liverpool a decision it will be very high profile if you don’t give Brighton one nobody really cares

blue-shifted · Sep 28, 2020

The poll misses the predominant reason for the painfully obvious big club bias .

It's the managers that the refs are scared of. They know that the Mourinho's and Klopp's of this world will eviscerate them in the interviews if they upset them and that will be heavily reported and bad for their career.

The big 6 managers treatment of refs looks emotional. But the ferocity is carefully calculated to ensure they get the decisions next time. The authorities won't stick up for refs against Pep or Ole, any ref who brings the PL's name through the media can expect to get lowly assignments in the coming weeks.

Manager's are generally ********s, because being an ******** works.

Graham will be entirely philosophical and he will spend his entire managerial career on the wrong end of that sort of rough justice because of it.

FWIW. I'd rather have a manager like Graham. If a club doesn't represent your values, what's the point in supporting them.

zefarelly · Sep 28, 2020

Referees went 'professional' some time ago.

I don't think they are professional enough. A bit like estate agency is a profession . . . .
VAR has rendered linesmen pretty much redundant. It certainly makes them look incompetent.

When I think of a top drawer ref I think of someone like Pierluigi Collina. Managers would respect him, not hound him into submission.

The FA are ****ing useless, fining a gazillionaire £5k for calling the ref out is utterly pointless and meaningless.

I think the VAR system should be binned . . . .IF the ref has a doubt ALL replay angles shoulds be made available to him at the side of the pitch instantly, he and onlt he can confirm his decision or change his mind. One Ref and one set of rules. Which everyone was happy with before VAR ****ed everything up. Give the ref the tools the authority, and responsibility and the rewards that go with it.

Oh . . . . and Maguire, the **** needs a slap, with a shovel . . . .if he hadn't hounded the ref into VAR at the end . . . . . the game was over. . . .

Bold Seagull · Sep 28, 2020

As others have said, coverage and scrutiny.

Games involving the top 6 are generally on the highlights packages longer, talked about more, scrutinised more. This means mistakes or decisions against these clubs are highlighted in far more detail.

Turn the tables round and if it was United lost due to the 8th minute of injury time being played, a penalty given then rescinded for them, see if Motd etc. are mentioned time added and other decisions or not. Massive difference. Even now, all the focus is on the penalties ManCity and Spurs conceded...

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[Football] Big Team Bias

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It's the Illuminati behind it

Pressure from the PL on refs

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