[Football] The three promoted teams

Weststander · Sep 20, 2020

Still two plus weeks of transfer business to go.

I’d expect Stains, Burnley, West Ham and Leeds to spend significantly or take loanees, plus Fulham would be foolish not to replace their inept defenders.

Far too early to say.

But I’m confident for us with GP’s revolution.

Beach Hut · Sep 20, 2020

Defence is key, we moved from -25 to -15 in one season and things look promising to better that already

worthingseagull123 · Sep 20, 2020

I think Leeds will be alright.

Too early to say for Villa of course.

But WBA, Fulham, West Ham and Newcastle look poor.

Ecosse Exile · Sep 20, 2020

I thought WBA looked quite good against Everton, until they went down to 10 and even then they managed an equalizer, then Everton stepped up a gear and they couldn't cope. Up til that point though they impressed me far more than Leeds and Fulham.

This will be a problem for all 3 imho, at the moment they are playing against sides that haven't really hit their strides yet, while they still have the buzz from promotion. A couple of defeats and that buzz will soon be gone and the reality will hit them hard. So far none of them look well prepared for it imho.

We will soon see if Bielsa is quite as godlike as many in the media and in Leeds seem to think, i'm not saying he's no good, i just think he's missing half a team of the required quality, which has, in the past, been a reason for him to walk. Bilic and Parker have similar problems, but i feel without the same pressure from the media and fans may make a better fist of it.

Weststander · Sep 20, 2020

worthingseagull123 said:
I think Leeds will be alright.

Too early to say for Villa of course.

But WBA, Fulham, West Ham and Newcastle look poor.

Newcastle were outstanding at West Ham last week (whilst West Ham bossed the Emirates match last night).

All a bit chaotic.

But for us, consistently good, as we played well in all three league and cup games so far.

nwgull · Sep 20, 2020

Leeds defence looks weak, and the bloke they’ve replaced White with seems to be a liability. I can easily see them being dragged into a relegation fight unless they tighten up at the back.

Bry Nylon · Sep 20, 2020

nwgull said:
Leeds defence looks weak, and the bloke they’ve replaced White with seems to be a liability. I can easily see them being dragged into a relegation fight unless they tighten up at the back.

I didn't realise till I watched MoTD2 that Koch has conceded 2 penalties in his first first 2 games. Bargain. :lolol:

Yoda · Sep 21, 2020

Leeds remind me of Fulham from 2 seasons ago. Great to watch going forward but cannot defend for toffee.

Fulham remind me of Villa last season. Will struggle for goals and have a defence as useless as a chocolate fireguard.

West Brom so far remind me of Huddersfield when they went down so far. Just nothing to look forward to going into almost all their matches.

dwayne · Sep 21, 2020

Yoda said:
Leeds remind me of Fulham from 2 seasons ago. Great to watch going forward but cannot defend for toffee.

Fulham remind me of Villa last season. Will struggle for goals and have a defence as useless as a chocolate fireguard.

West Brom so far remind me of Huddersfield when they went down so far. Just nothing to look forward to going into almost all their matches.

Ahhh dunno about west brom diangana and perrera are very impressive. They are exciting as well. Most of the rest of the team are nowhere near good enough tho.

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Yoda · Sep 21, 2020

dwayne said:
Ahhh dunno about west brom diangana and perrera are very impressive. They are exciting as well. Most of the rest of the team are nowhere near good enough tho.

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Exactly my point, they have a couple of players that can excite at time but the rest of the team is pony and are going to lose most games because if it and therefore not much to look forward to.

Bridcutt · Sep 21, 2020

I expect Leeds to start to fail at about the 2/3 mark of the season. Happens every season (except last due to lockdown saving themj as they can't play their football for 38 + games.

Fulham and West Brom look certain to go down though already as it stands. West Brom have good wingers and Fulham have Mitro but the rest of the teams are champ standard

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FatSuperman · Sep 21, 2020

I know there are some real statistics haters on here, but for those that care, I'm not sure Leeds will be a 'free scoring' team. They slightly underperformed their xG over the course of the last couple of seasons. But so far this season they have been massively over performing.

Obviously some chances will go in, but if you add up their entire 'expected' return across both matches, they should have scored about 1 goal (0.87) if you exclude the penalty. So overall they have outperformed xG by FIVE goals in just two matches. That means they either have very clinical finishers, or they've been lucky...

Costa - 2 goals from 0.16 expected
Harrison - 1 goals from 0.16 expected
Bamford - 2 goals from 0.14 expected
Klich - 1 goals from 0.08 expected (excludes the penalty vs Fulham)

We've been a bit fortunate / clinical, but nowhere near as much. Our total xG over two games is 2.52 (excluding pens) and we've scored 3 (excluding pens)

Maupay - 1 goal from 0.97 (excludes the penalty)
Connolly - 1 goal from 0.34
Trossard - 1 goal from 0.10

I'll try to head off some obvious questions.

The sums above for the players won't add up to the total, because others players have also had shots - I've only bothered to show goal scorers.
xG is used to show you a little more about the match just beyond the scoreline. No, it doesn't tell you how 'well' a team played, but it shows you the quality of the chances they have created.
xG is a comparison of all similar chances and how likely they are to be scored. For example, a penalty is considered an 80% chance to be scored (0.8 xG). As another example, Maupay's header miss vs Chelsea is scored 35% of the time.
Clinical finishers (like Murray) will outperform their expected goals. Awful finishers (Benteke) will underperform. There will be lots of swings in between, players go on blue runs etc, but over the course of an entire season, most strikers are about in line with expected goals.
Bamford currently performing at 14 times his expected goals. If he keeps this up and scores as he did last season, he's on track to get 347 goals. I haven't checked, but I think that'll be a record.

schmunk · Sep 21, 2020

FatSuperman said:
Our total xG over two games is 2.52 (excluding pens) and we've scored 3

4

FatSuperman said:
I haven't checked, but I think that'll be a record.

FatSuperman · Sep 21, 2020

FatSuperman said:
Our total xG over two games is 2.52 (excluding pens) and we've scored 3

schmunk said:
4

I should have been a bit clearer - I'm excluding the penalty from goals expected and goals scored :thumbsup:

Greg Bobkin · Sep 21, 2020

Fella commentating on the radio was banging on about how great Leeds were, after they won. Clearly oblivious of the fact that they were 4-1 up and let it slip to 4-3. Also made out like there was a HUGE chasm between Leeds and Fulham, even though the latter had only lost by one goal – the same difference that Leeds lost to Liverpool, when everyone was raving about them being 'back' and seemingly a shoo-in for Europe!

Bonkers. I certainly won't be getting and Leeds defenders in my FPL team anytime soon!

ferring seagull · Sep 21, 2020

Bry Nylon said:
I didn't realise till I watched MoTD2 that Koch has conceded 2 penalties in his first first 2 games. Bargain.

That's consistency for you

hans kraay fan club · Sep 21, 2020

Bry Nylon said:
I didn't realise till I watched MoTD2 that Koch has conceded 2 penalties in his first first 2 games. Bargain.

Two games, two Koch ups.

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