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Interesting facts from Govt



Albion Dan

Banned
Jul 8, 2003
11,125
Peckham
You don’t usually see much of this in the media but it’s all there in black and white on the Govt website, I certainly think we’d have a very different perspective if care homes had been protected or hospitals weren’t forced to label CV as reason of death when it probably wasn’t.

The Truth about Covid-19 is NOT always what is being reported

(Includes latest government figures and data available as of 31st August 2020, unless otherwise stated)

You should read what the government tells you on its websites because it contains all of the facts to prove this.

The government has made some important points that you may have missed in how the media has reported the fear around Covid-19:

Point 1 – Covid-19 Low Impact Overall –Per the Government:

OPEN GOVT QUOTE: “As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious disease (HCID) in the UK...... Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall).... “END GOVT QUOTE.

Link to govt website: http://bitly.ws/9zZT

Point 2 – Covid-19 made a notifiable disease – Per the Government:

On 5thMarch 2020 the UK government made Covid-19 a notifiable disease. This meant that, unlike with the flu or many other respiratory illnesses, Covid-19 had to be included on death certificates. As such, however ill someone already was with another condition they would be included and recorded within the Covid-19 statistics.

Link to govt website http://bitly.ws/9A2d

Point 3 –Cause of Death may not be Covid-19 –Per the Government:

OPEN GOVT QUOTE :”Total number of deaths since the start of the pandemic of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19. The actual cause of death may not be COVID-19 in all cases” END GOVT QUOTE

Link to govt website: http://bitly.ws/9A2F

Point 4 – Can Include Deaths for Any Reason after a Positive Test – Per the Government:

The government’s website recently stated:

“Deaths are included if the deceased had had a positive test for COVID-19, however long after the test they died.”

This means that someone with no symptoms could have tested positive for Covid-19 and five months later be run over by a bus and still be included within the government Covid-19 death statistics.

The government recently corrected this issue and reduced the reported deaths in England by 5,377 and now they “only” include those who test positive, even if they had no symptoms, and die for any reason including a road traffic accident within 28 days of the positive test. This brings England’s methodology in line with the rest of the UK.

Link to govt website: http://bitly.ws/9A2F

Point 5 – Positive Test not Needed to Include Someone – Per the Government:

The government data on the numbers of people dying in hospital with Covid-19 states that it:

OPEN GOVT QUOTE “contains information on the deaths.........of patients who have died in hospitals in England and either tested positive for COVID-19 or where no positive test result was received for COVID-19, but COVID-19 was mentioned on their death certificate.” END GOVT QUOTE

So a positive test for Covid-19 is not even needed and it doesn’t mean that Covid-19 will be the main contributing factor in someone’s death in order to include them in the Covid-19 statistics.

Link to govt website http://bitly.ws/9A3D

Point 6 – Not all Pre-existing Conditions Initially Recorded- Per the Government:

The government has shared the numbers of those dying in hospital with serious co-morbidities (information on deaths in the community is not provided).The government has also told us that they didn’t keep a record of many of these until a number of people had already died, for example.

The government only started to record the deaths of people with Covid-19 who also had Ischaemic Heart Disease (a leading cause of death worldwide) after a total of 9,114 people had already died with Covid-19 in England and for other serious conditions such as Diabetes, Chronic Pulmonary and Kidney Disease only after 1596 people had already died with Covid-19.

Link to govt website http://bitly.ws/9A3D

Point 7 – Many already Suffering with Pre-Existing Conditions –Per the Government:

The government has shown us that Covid-19 predominantly affects those who have low immunity or already compromised health. It is therefore no surprise that more than 95% of those dying in hospital, for whom data is available, were suffering with a least one serious pre-existing condition.

The remaining almost 5% or 1390 people are listed as dying without a pre-existing condition.

However, earlier data on co-morbidities is not provided on the government websites and therefore some or all of these 1,390 people may have died with a pre-existing condition that was not being monitored by the government at the time (see point 6).

The government has now stopped providing the total number of co-morbidities that those who died in hospital were suffering with, but when the numbers were last reviewed (deaths were at a similar level to now) the government stated that there were 47,296 recorded pre-existing conditions against 27,990 people then recorded as having a pre-existing condition.

So on average at that point in August each person dying with Covid-19 with a pre-existing condition had 1.6 pre-existing conditions (obviously some may have suffered with more and some maybe less but 27,990 (of the 29,378 total deaths in hospital at that time) all had at least one pre-existing condition recorded.

Link to govt website http://bitly.ws/9A3D

Point 8 – The Elderly have Suffered most – Per the Government:

The government has shared the age groups of those dying in hospitals (information on deaths in the community is not provided) and they show that Covid-19, as with many other conditions, predominantly affects the elderly. The age ranges provided are split into large groups of 19 years but an indication is provided below from the governments’ data:

· Of those dying, 53% were above the age of 80 years. The average lifespan (across men and women) in the UK is 81 years (Wikipedia)

· Of those dying over 91% have been above the age of 60 years.

· Of those dying over 99% have been above the age of 40 years.

Link to govt website http://bitly.ws/9A3D

Point 9 – Half of those that have Died have been in Care Homes - Per the Government:

Latest available government figures show that England saw 36,852 people die with Covid-19 (almost 90% of the UK’s total reported Covid-19 deaths in hospital and in the community).

Link to govt website http://bitly.ws/9A2F

Of these people the government website shows that 18,702 people who have died in England were resident in Care Homes; more than 50% of all the deaths in England.

Link to govt website http://bitly.ws/9A5e

The government has also confirmed that between 17 March and 15 April, 25,000 elderly people were moved from hospital into Care Homes. Due to government policy at the time, not all patients were tested for Covid-19 before being discharged.

Link to National Audit Office website: http://bitly.ws/9A5F

Point 10 – The NHS had 64% Less patients in Q2 vs. Q1 - Per the Government:

NHS Hospitals in England had lots of spare capacity during the Covid-19 crisis, on average 64% less acute beds occupied in calendar Quarter 2 vs. Quarter 1 this year (58k over 90k occupied acute beds), representing a huge fall in NHS workload over the period which is not reflective of the huge crisis portrayed by the media.

Link to the government website: http://bitly.ws/9zRr

The cause of this was partly the elderly being moved out of hospitals and into care homes and also reduced admissions from A&E (many being too frightened to attend) and the cancellation of operations, cancer therapies etc.

Likewise Nightingale Hospitals were also left empty and then dismantled.

This is particularly important because of the people dying with Covid-19 in England (36,582), many more people died in hospital (29,531) than in the community.

Note: At the moment the government numbers do not reconcile when we consider the care home deaths being reported in terms of the setting that care home residents were in at the time of their death. It may be that this information needs to be updated following the government’s rework of the numbers mentioned above.
 




Fitzcarraldo

Well-known member
Nov 12, 2010
960
When you say 'the media' who specifically are you talking about? It rather invalidates the rest of what you are saying whenever you lump every single news publication/broadcaster in together.

Also 'you don’t usually see much of this in the media' is a strange sentence as doesn't that mean: you do see this in 'the media' but I am going to pretend that you don't?
 


Albion Dan

Banned
Jul 8, 2003
11,125
Peckham
When you say 'the media' who specifically are you talking about? It rather invalidates the rest of what you are saying whenever you lump every single news publication/broadcaster in together.

Also 'you don’t usually see much of this in the media' is a strange sentence as doesn't that mean: you do see this in 'the media' but I am going to pretend that you don't?

I mean that anything of this nature would get a tiny share of the covid narrative if any at all as opposed to the never ending cases count, note they dont report deaths in headlines much now as that trend would be far too good news and stop everyone sh**ting themselves. Thought it was quite obvious. Main media = BBC, ITN, SKY, Broadsheets and red tops etc who have been on a crusade of fear porn since the outset.
 


beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,292
yes, all publically available information, all except one (point 6) i have seen in the press.
 






Albion Dan

Banned
Jul 8, 2003
11,125
Peckham
yes, all publically available information, all except one (point 6) i have seen in the press.

So knowing all of the above information do you feel the way and message the media is presenting around the virus and it’s implications are correct? And do you think government strategy is correct?
 


beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,292
So knowing all of the above information do you feel the way and message the media is presenting around the virus and it’s implications are correct? And do you think government strategy is correct?

the media like to ramp up a fear and i believe they should be restricted in their reporting in national emergencies. i wouldnt be so charitable to call the government response a strategy. things could be different, more clarity and coordination is needed.
 


darkwolf666

Well-known member
Nov 8, 2015
7,576
Sittingbourne, Kent
So knowing all of the above information do you feel the way and message the media is presenting around the virus and it’s implications are correct? And do you think government strategy is correct?

I think what you have eloguently proven is that this government (to be fair with many worldwide, outside of Asia), was ill prepared and equipped for a Pandemic. They clearly didn't set out their terms of reference for data collecting and have had to muddle through, tinkering at the edges changing things and muddying the waters with regards the statistics.

As a former analyst, I know the most important thing to ascertain at the outset of a piece of work is the Terms of Reference, something which clearly here hasn't been conveyed to those collecting the data. Also there is a need to know the audience the work will be presented to, this has clearly failed again, as there are just too many variables on datasets.

The man in the street has to dig to get to the facts, which shouldn't be the case, clear concise information should be available to all, with more in-depth information to those that need to know (point 6).
 
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beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,292
I think what you have eloguently proven is that this government (to be fair with many worldwide, outside of Asia), was ill prepared and equipped for a Pandemic. They clearly didn't set out their terms of reference for data collecting and have had to muddle through, tinkering at the edges changing things and muddying the waters with the regards the statistics.

its based on standard data stats collected by NHS/collated by ONS, only a new catagory of Covid added (which happens from time to time). ONS then republish in many (many) different sets. i wouldnt blame the ONS for trying to make sense of the raw data, except people come along and think this is the raw data, unaware its a snapshot.
 


darkwolf666

Well-known member
Nov 8, 2015
7,576
Sittingbourne, Kent
its based on standard data stats collected by NHS/collated by ONS, only a new catagory of Covid added (which happens from time to time). ONS then republish in many (many) different sets. i wouldnt blame the ONS for trying to make sense of the raw data, except people come along and think this is the raw data, unaware its a snapshot.

I understand they are basic data sets, but terms of reference would define requirements, like not including those deaths occurring 28 days from a positive Covid test, as they were for the rest of the UK.
 


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