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[Football] Relegation odds 20/21



jimhigham

Je Suis Rhino
Apr 25, 2009
7,734
Woking
If Fulham maintain their average points per game they’ll get another 5.78 points. Let’s be nice and call it 6. They still don’t catch us. Let’s be nicer still and assume they get a few extra points when the blood and thunder final matches kick in. They’re running out of matches, with only 21 points to play for.

None of this factors in what might happen with Newcastle.

We’ve eight matches to essentially pick up one more win and, most likely, a draw here or there. Tonight was a shame but hardly unexpected. Fulham losing has minimised the damage. We should have enough to get over the line, as we’re playing decent enough stuff just now.

Hold the nerve.
 




vagabond

Well-known member
May 17, 2019
9,804
Brighton
If Fulham maintain their average points per game they’ll get another 5.78 points. Let’s be nice and call it 6. They still don’t catch us. Let’s be nicer still and assume they get a few extra points when the blood and thunder final matches kick in. They’re running out of matches, with only 21 points to play for.

None of this factors in what might happen with Newcastle.

We’ve eight matches to essentially pick up one more win and, most likely, a draw here or there. Tonight was a shame but hardly unexpected. Fulham losing has minimised the damage. We should have enough to get over the line, as we’re playing decent enough stuff just now.

Hold the nerve.

Fulham have 7 games to get 2 wins and a draw more then us before the end of the season. If we get even a draw with our game in hand, they will need 3 more wins then us with our GD.
 


dangull

Well-known member
Feb 24, 2013
5,110
Prior to the game tonight, stuck £15 on at 45s to go.

Just cashed in for £18.53.

Puntastic mate.

Way to go.
That's a really good bet when most neutrals were expecting a routine home win. That's off course turned out to be the case in the end.
 


Weststander

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Aug 25, 2011
63,872
Withdean area
50/1 without playing. WBA and SheffU not listed.

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nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
13,736
Manchester
I have to confess to not understanding these things, but it's interesting to see that the odds on us to go down have shortened - yet Fulham (presumably the team most likely to catch us) have gone from 2-5 to 1-6 to go down.

Newcastle and West Brom’s odds have lengthened after their wins, so the odds in everyone that didn’t win shorten a little.
 


Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
I have to confess to not understanding these things, but it's interesting to see that the odds on us to go down have shortened - yet Fulham (presumably the team most likely to catch us) have gone from 2-5 to 1-6 to go down.
I think we are less likely to go down after the point earned tonight than before kickoff :shrug:
 




Dave Fishwick

Well-known member
Feb 28, 2021
1,273
London
I think we are less likely to go down after the point earned tonight than before kickoff :shrug:

the bookies would've had us in for just over 1pt from the game though given we were strong favourites in the match betting, therefore we have underachieved in their eyes, hence the small clip in relegation odds
 


mashman156

Well-known member
Aug 7, 2009
511
Southampton
Think the main reason for the odds changing us more due to West Brom picking up some form. However unlikely it is, they've brought themselves into the mix with those 2 wins. They're 9 points behind us (with shocking GD so call it 10). 1 more win to put any remaining fears to bed.
 
















Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,637
West west west Sussex
Our odds seem to increase when we don't play then tighten when we do. :lolol:
 


Jim D

Well-known member
Jul 23, 2003
5,249
Worthing
I don't know why WBA are 1/66 when Fulham are 1/8. In my opinion WBA have a better chance of survival - not saying they will though.
 


Change at Barnham

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2011
4,898
Bognor Regis
I don't know why WBA are 1/66 when Fulham are 1/8. In my opinion WBA have a better chance of survival - not saying they will though.

It probably has something to do with the fact that Fulham still have Burnley and Newcastle to play which if Fulham won would have a bigger effect on things.
 




Weststander

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Aug 25, 2011
63,872
Withdean area
It probably has something to do with the fact that Fulham still have Burnley and Newcastle to play which if Fulham won would have a bigger effect on things.

Fulham also have a critical 4 points advantage over WBA (they have a far superior GD).

In addition WBA have to achieve a net 10 points gain on Burnley, from an ever diminishing list of fixtures.
 




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