What this might be telling us is that the French Covid deaths would have died anyway. That’s the first thing which comes to my mind
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England had highest excess death rate in Europe over first half of 2020
- Thread starter WATFORD zero
- Start date
What this might be telling us is that the French Covid deaths would have died anyway. That’s the first thing which comes to my mind
The Wizard
Well-known member
- Jul 2, 2009
- 18,383
‘Excess death rate’ can surely be linked to many things, that aren’t COVID.
So until we have an answer as to what the hell Public Health England are playing at with how they report deaths, this question is really hard to answer, many of the excess deaths will I’m sure be put down to lack of care for things that are normally treatable, according to the last numbers I saw thousands of people died at home in April, totally unrelated to COVID, I would assume because people were not calling 999 in genuine emergencies because of the fear of going to hospital and subsequently dying of things that people would normally survive. I think excess deaths are a dangerous measurement because my hunch is a LOT of people have died due to lack of clinical care for other things.
I think truly answering this question is tough and you will only be able to answer it once the dust has settled, at the moment we are listing people who had COVID 3 months ago, recovered and then died of a heart attack months later as a COVID death and for me that sums the situation up, it’s utterly ridiculous that this is happening.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we are the worst hit country though, government handling could have been better, ethnically diverse population, extremely unhealthy habits, terrible hygiene, very high obesity and diabetes rates + high heart disease rates, unfortunately its a perfect storm of shit.
So until we have an answer as to what the hell Public Health England are playing at with how they report deaths, this question is really hard to answer, many of the excess deaths will I’m sure be put down to lack of care for things that are normally treatable, according to the last numbers I saw thousands of people died at home in April, totally unrelated to COVID, I would assume because people were not calling 999 in genuine emergencies because of the fear of going to hospital and subsequently dying of things that people would normally survive. I think excess deaths are a dangerous measurement because my hunch is a LOT of people have died due to lack of clinical care for other things.
I think truly answering this question is tough and you will only be able to answer it once the dust has settled, at the moment we are listing people who had COVID 3 months ago, recovered and then died of a heart attack months later as a COVID death and for me that sums the situation up, it’s utterly ridiculous that this is happening.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we are the worst hit country though, government handling could have been better, ethnically diverse population, extremely unhealthy habits, terrible hygiene, very high obesity and diabetes rates + high heart disease rates, unfortunately its a perfect storm of shit.
It's amazing how quickly you can go off someone, isn't it?
When I last asked about this topic, there was an overwhelming preference to keep Covid discussions where they currently are > https://www.northstandchat.com/show...forum-and-move-threads-back-to-the-main-board
So this will be going the same way now.
However, I shall ask the question again as that was two months ago now, amazingly.
To be clear [MENTION=396]WATFORD zero[/MENTION]: you don't decide where Covid threads go.
When I last asked about this topic, there was an overwhelming preference to keep Covid discussions where they currently are > https://www.northstandchat.com/show...forum-and-move-threads-back-to-the-main-board
So this will be going the same way now.
However, I shall ask the question again as that was two months ago now, amazingly.
To be clear [MENTION=396]WATFORD zero[/MENTION]: you don't decide where Covid threads go.
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Yes ironically it could be the thinner you are the wealthier and vice versa
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,300
excess deaths is great for normalisation of the data across countries. i see this looking at the source ONS datasets, subtract recorded covid deaths from the total excess deaths, left with non-covid excess.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,300
partially true. something we and most civilised countries dont do is hide deaths. people know about them, they are fairly meticulously recorded. cause of death and comorbidities (additional illness) are subject to much more variation.
The most bizarre thing is how we got so many of the obvious things wrong.
- Quarantine for arrivals at airports
- Locking down too late
- Diluting the message to save the job of a SPAD
- No masks until way too late
These were fairly simple things to get right, and they got ALL of them wrong. And they still are. There's some slack to be cut for a lot of things because these are unprecedented circumstances, and a lot of things they got right (the furlough stuff in particular), but some of the things they got wrong really are wholly unfathomable, and frankly unforgivable.
- Quarantine for arrivals at airports
- Locking down too late
- Diluting the message to save the job of a SPAD
- No masks until way too late
These were fairly simple things to get right, and they got ALL of them wrong. And they still are. There's some slack to be cut for a lot of things because these are unprecedented circumstances, and a lot of things they got right (the furlough stuff in particular), but some of the things they got wrong really are wholly unfathomable, and frankly unforgivable.
- Jul 10, 2003
- 25,796
- Thread starter
- #28
Fair enough. I thought we posted on the main board and you decided where it went, but I won't do it again
As per my post, this defeats the object. You pointed out you couldn’t find anyone reporting this figure...it’s for a reason.
And numbers of deaths, and therefore excess deaths, is an incredibly rudimentary calculation. There’s little to manipulate and/or misinterpret. It says what it does on the tin.
portlock seagull
Why? Why us?
- Jul 28, 2003
- 17,071
Excellent points Weststander. Especially 3 & 4. People of Indian sub continent ethnicity are genetically more prone to asthma, a contributory factor. Plus, many minorities interpreted household as extended family when it came to isolation, bubbles and so forth. And culturally, Britain has become a nation of ‘rights without responsibilities‘ opinionated narcissists, who often need saving from themselves. So good luck to any government trying to tell “us” what to do! Remind me, which part of the country says “we won’t be druv”?
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,300
true to a point. its basic data "this many more deaths that the 5-year average", so normallised it doesnt tell us much. first question is why? medical statisticians look for reasons to attribute to it, flu, cold winters, or in this case covid.
portlock seagull
Why? Why us?
- Jul 28, 2003
- 17,071
HT, do you know whether we top this league regularly and do other European countries always submit data? I get the point about rudimentary, but what if the “tin” doesn’t tell the full picture? Or it’s dented, like peeled plum tomato’s always are
I’m open to others telling me I’m wrong and why. But I think we Brits have always had a not insignificant unruly, belligerent, fck rules, portion of the population. Perhaps it’s in many of us?
From lobbing litter, fly tipping, spitting at police, not accepting when in the wrong, parents attacking teachers if they tell Johnny off, vandalising things, road rage violence even when the driving guilty party, the whole petrol-heads really hate cyclists thing, disrespect.
A portion of UK society weren’t going to be told what to lockdown. That extends to some middle aged and elderly folk too .... people don’t ditch a lifetime of not giving a damn about society and neighbours, just because they reach 65.
With masks, the WHO and the vast majority of scientists spent months unsure if they had any benefit at all. I clearly recall UK experts, The Naked Scientist, as well as GP’s on radio/TV months into lockdown simply passing on the science as they should, not hearsay or subjectivity, that the evidence was they have no or little effect.
It was only much later that the science changed.
In fairness, they’re having to learn fast in unprecedented (modern) times.
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clapham_gull
Legacy Fan
- Aug 20, 2003
- 25,307
I agree to a point, but most people will do the right thing. Unfortunately the somewhat trustworthy Tories of the part (even if you disagreed with them ideologically) has morphed into a neo-liberal small state populist survival of fittest party.
Thatcher never finished her project etc...
It fundamentally mistrusts the population to do what it was told because it is under the illusion it thinks like they do. This led to a delay into a somewhat draconian but necessary lock down.
True to form many individuals within the party broke the rules (they don't apply to us) and the Prime Minister was under extreme pressure from the backbenchers (mostly ERG) to loosen the lock down.
You still have MPs openly questioning mask wearing.
There will be a backlash at the next election.
HT, do you know whether we top this league regularly and do other European countries always submit data? I get the point about rudimentary, but what if the “tin” doesn’t tell the full picture? Or it’s dented, like peeled plum tomato’s always are
Excess deaths is a measure relative to a country’s norm. So you will only see a high number when a country has a specific issue which differs from the “normal”. Covid is a current example but another is that French heatwave where lots of old people died. I wouldn’t therefore expect any county to regularly top this league.
The excess death figure is a simple descriptive statistic. It’s a guide. Nothing more, nothing less. You will need to investigate further, to be sure there are no other contributory factors causing the excess and you have a fuller picture.
And yeah, why always tinned plum tomatoes?
I think the eventual lockdown was typically British laissez faire. Boring for us, but not oppressive.
Near continental neighbours used the full might of police, paramilitaries and the army to enforce it. Even outdoor exercise banned. Oppressive, but it worked, with a far quicker fall in cases and deaths.
Personally, I’d have hated that. Out of interest, could other NSC’ers have stomached being in effect held at home for two months (bar sanctioned trips out for food or meds), for the greater good?
BN41Albion
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2017
- 6,401
Perhaps. But 7% and 0.2% is a remarkable difference. Obesity in France isn't as high as here, but it isn't the slimmest nation in the world either now, and they smoke a lot more than we do still. Just seems odd to me, considering the amount of deaths they had Covid related. Makes me still question the data slightly, even though I do agree with your post #14
BN41Albion
Well-known member
- Oct 1, 2017
- 6,401
I wonder whether obesity has been a factor, really.
There are many other countries nearby with similar or not far of our obesity rates now who didn't suffer badly.
As your own (excellent!) post before mentioned, I think the ethnically diverse population factor is very interesting to note for the reasons you mentioned. As well as not locking down hard enough. I do believe most brits would've adhered to it (it's not as if other countries didn't have problems with a certain % of people not adhering to the strict lockdown measures - I'm sure it would have been a similar % here), but the fact we had a slack lockdown in comparison, and let's face it, weakly enforced in a lot of cases (not the police's fault to add) , probably hasn't helped either.
Agree with your other points too about care homes and lots of major transport hubs for a compact country