[Albion] Still think we’re safe?

GT49er · Jul 13, 2020

kevo said:
Both of them don't have to.

But somebody else then has to, Watford or Wet Sham. And even that only works if we don't get anything from our last three matches.

Nothing's impossible, I agree - but what is more likely? Us losing five in a row, or Villa and B'Muff winning two out of the next three (and both Watford and Wet Sham picking up more points than us too)? Freak result after freak (or at least unlikely) results could send us down, but it would take a lot of freak results for that to happen.

Thunder Bolt · Jul 13, 2020

GT49er said:
But somebody else then has to, Watford or Wet Sham. And even that only works if we don't get anything from our last three matches.

Nothing's impossible, I agree - but what is more likely? Us losing five in a row, or Villa and B'Muff winning two out of the next three (and both Watford and Wet Sham picking up more points than us too)? Freak result after freak (or at least unlikely) results could send us down, but it would take a lot of freak results for that to happen.

West Ham play Villa and Watford therefore they can’t all get maximum points.

kevo · Jul 13, 2020

GT49er said:
But somebody else then has to, Watford or Wet Sham.

No, they don't. They are both only two points behind us!

It really wouldn't take a sequence of freak results for us to go down. But we will be OK if we win one of our remaining three.

symyjym · Jul 13, 2020

GT49er said:
But somebody else then has to, Watford or Wet Sham. And even that only works if we don't get anything from our last three matches.

Nothing's impossible, I agree - but what is more likely? Us losing five in a row, or Villa and B'Muff winning two out of the next three (and both Watford and Wet Sham picking up more points than us too)? Freak result after freak (or at least unlikely) results could send us down, but it would take a lot of freak results for that to happen.

The chances of losing five in a row increases when we have already lost two of them. Our last three games are not going to be walk overs, and just losing the next two will probably take it to the last game of the season to decide the last relegation place.

If we think that Bournemouth, Watford and West Ham haven't got a fight in them to win two of their next three we would be fooling ourselves because they are all quite capable on their day.

We have just two games to avoid our fate being settled on the final day.

FatSuperman · Jul 13, 2020

nwgull said:
One more bit of positivity: Looking at the remaining fixtures of all 4 teams below us, I wouldn’t swap our 3 fixtures for any of them!

Nor would you swap positions with any of them. We are certainly in a better place than those in the drop zone - they are much more reliant on other team's messing up than we are!

AlbionInUs · Jul 13, 2020

It baffles me that a loss to City, arguable the best team in the world, leads our fan base to believe that we will get 0 points from the remaining games, and that all future seasons will be doom and gloom. Since the restart alone, Man City beat the champions 4-0, Burnley 5-0, Newcastle 5-0, and Arsenal 5-0. Burnley and Arsenal have bounced back well, whilst Newcastle narrowly lost to Watford. We still have 7 points since the restart, we are still 5 1/2 points from the drop; and many here tipped us for relegation. West Ham and us have the easiest remains fixtures of the bottom 6. Whist Bmuff and Watford have some of the hardest. Man City has put a dampener on our recent run, but we didn’t even play a full strength side. IMO, the City game is irrelevant to our form. Contrary to what many believe, 80/1 is more than fair.

SeagullDubai · Jul 13, 2020

dingodan said:
Looking at the table, just imagine if we had lost to Arsenal.

We'd be 17th, with only 2 points on Bournemouth and 3 points on Villa with 3 games to go.

Imagine if Maupay had scored the penalty against Leicester. Swings and roundabouts Dingo

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OzMike · Jul 13, 2020

I think 2 more points will be enough, may rue that missed penalty which would have given them to us.
I don't think we will go down, but sailing close to that possibility will give me better odds for my 'avoiding relegation' bet for the next season.
By only just surviving last season, I got 15/1 odds against relegation for this season so put $50 on it, will get $750 back.
The trick is to put the bet on at the end of the season and not the beginning of the next, as the odds seem to take a little tumble when new players/manager come in.
Apart from one season, I have made a decent profit from this bet every other season.
Gives me some beer money, as well as covering other bets, like winning the league, cups and getting into Europe etc.

nwgull · Jul 13, 2020

OzMike said:
I think 2 more points will be enough, may rue that missed penalty which would have given them to us.
I don't think we will go down, but sailing close to that possibility will give me better odds for my 'avoiding relegation' bet for the next season.
By only just surviving last season, I got 15/1 odds against relegation for this season so put $50 on it, will get $750 back.
The trick is to put the bet on at the end of the season and not the beginning of the next, as the odds seem to take a little tumble when new players/manager come in.
Apart from one season, I have made a decent profit from this bet every other season.
Gives me some beer money, as well as covering other bets, like winning the league, cups and getting into Europe etc.

You’re telling us that you got odds of 15-1 against us surviving the season? We were never available at anything like that price. We’ve never been anything other than odds on to survive, even before a ball was kicked.

OzMike · Jul 13, 2020

nwgull said:
You’re telling us that you got odds of 15-1 against us surviving the season? We were never available at anything like that price. We’ve never been anything other than odds on to survive, even before a ball was kicked.

Will be interesting to see what the odds are over here at the end of this season.

Perfidious Albion · Jul 13, 2020

I have'nt wet the bed yet, but it is now vital that we gain points in our last three games. Starting with Southampton on Thursday. Victory please Mr Potter .

nwgull · Jul 13, 2020

OzMike said:
Will be interesting to see what the odds are over here at the end of this season.

We’ll be massively odds on to survive. Even in our very first PL season, if you’d wanted to back our survival you’d have only been able to get odds on.

There’s no way you got 15-1 against.

One Teddy Maybank · Jul 13, 2020

Thunder Bolt said:
West Ham play Villa and Watford therefore they can’t all get maximum points.

Exactly.

I don’t expect anything from Stains, but feel we’ll beat Newcastle.

Not worried.

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Tokyohands · Jul 13, 2020

I've been looking at the table more nervously ever since that Footballing World Owes Us An Apology thread appeared prematurely.

sparkie · Jul 13, 2020

This makes me feel better :

Man City beat Bournemouth
Villa fail to beat Everton

Albion draw v Southampton

...means that the Albion can only go down if Bournemouth or Villa overtake our goal difference.

Albion beat Southampton and Thursday could even be 'Safety Day'.

Icy Gull · Jul 13, 2020

We wouldn’t have it any other way, who needs the season decided with three games to go when you can worry yourself stupid every game, maybe?

I think we are going to have some worrying to do for at least a couple of games, and who knows it might go down to needing something at Burnley

What’s not to like? This is what you signed up for :thumbsup:

nwgull · Jul 13, 2020

Icy Gull said:
We wouldn’t have it any other way, who needs the season decided with three games to go when you can worry yourself stupid every game.

To be fair, we normally wrap things up with 2-3 games to play. And I have a feeling that it will be no different this year.

sparkie · Jul 13, 2020

Icy Gull said:
We wouldn’t have it any other way, who needs the season decided with three games to go when you can worry yourself stupid every game, maybe?

I think we are going to have some worrying to do for at least a couple of games, and who knows it might go down to needing something at Burnley

What’s not to like? This is what you signed up for [emoji106]

I "need" it finished as soon as possible so we can have the joy of relaxing games, and Potter can experiment and prepare for next year.

Also, the sooner we have certainty for incoming transfer strategy the better.

Bold Seagull · Jul 13, 2020

sparkie said:
This makes me feel better :

Man City beat Bournemouth
Villa fail to beat Everton

Albion draw v Southampton

...means that the Albion can only go down if Bournemouth or Villa overtake our goal difference.

Albion beat Southampton and Thursday could even be 'Safety Day'.

The funny thing is, Southampton v Us is like playing a Champions League team, but for Bournemouth a week later it’s a nailed on 3 points. :lolol:

vagabond · Jul 13, 2020

GeorginaBrexiton said:
It baffles me that a loss to City, arguable the best team in the world, leads our fan base to believe that we will get 0 points from the remaining games, and that all future seasons will be doom and gloom. Since the restart alone, Man City beat the champions 4-0, Burnley 5-0, Newcastle 5-0, and Arsenal 5-0. Burnley and Arsenal have bounced back well, whilst Newcastle narrowly lost to Watford. We still have 7 points since the restart, we are still 5 1/2 points from the drop; and many here tipped us for relegation. West Ham and us have the easiest remains fixtures of the bottom 6. Whist Bmuff and Watford have some of the hardest. Man City has put a dampener on our recent run, but we didn’t even play a full strength side. IMO, the City game is irrelevant to our form. Contrary to what many believe, 80/1 is more than fair.

I don’t think anyone here is saying that, and basing anything solely on the Man City result. Most here are very positive for the future (see the thread ‘How much better are we’).

More a slight concern that taking 3 heavy defeats consecutively may impact player’s confidence.

I think if we stay up we are going to be in a brilliant place to kick on the GP revolution. We should stay up. We will stay up.

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