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[Albion] Was TB right to sack Chris Hughton?
- Thread starter Icy Gull
- Start date
keaton
Big heart, hot blood and balls. Big balls
- Nov 18, 2004
- 9,672
https://www.football365.com/news/ranking-premier-league-teams-xg-restart
I don't like xg. I like stats but I don't understand how you're supposed to tell it's accurate or not as it's never correct, it seems like stats for stats sake
I don't like xg. I like stats but I don't understand how you're supposed to tell it's accurate or not as it's never correct, it seems like stats for stats sake
London Irish
Well-known member
Come on who are you fooling, barely weeks go by when you aren't riding that hobby horse of kicking Chris for some reason. Perhaps at last you can retire it now?
I was probably among the more critical on here of Hughton's approach while he was manager but I don't see the point of slagging the guy off now he's gone - and gone for a fair while now. It's weird and unhealthy way to talk about our football, Potter should be judged on his own terms of what he's achieved
In hindsight, it is hard to argue that it wasn't the correct decision, it was a HUGE gamble though, and one many teams have got wrong. It was made very clear at a supporters club meeting that January that the club would stick by CH as long as we kept improving. PB stated that the aim was to better the 40 points amassed the previous season, or finish 14th place or higher - and for this to keep happening year on year. 3 points in your final 9 games is sackable, but I firmly believe if he had turned a couple of those draws into wins, and found a point somewhere else, he wouldn't have been sacked.
He's the most important manager in my supporting lifetime (first game in 1998) and his side both in the Championship and Premier League made me the proudest to be an Albion fan. However, I was in New Zealand at the end of last season and it became a depressing chore getting up at 3am (didn't miss a game) to watch us defend in the hope that we could salvage anything from each game. I still believe he deserves some larger form of recognition for the job he did at the Amex, and hope that there isn't any lasting bad blood between him and the club.
He's the most important manager in my supporting lifetime (first game in 1998) and his side both in the Championship and Premier League made me the proudest to be an Albion fan. However, I was in New Zealand at the end of last season and it became a depressing chore getting up at 3am (didn't miss a game) to watch us defend in the hope that we could salvage anything from each game. I still believe he deserves some larger form of recognition for the job he did at the Amex, and hope that there isn't any lasting bad blood between him and the club.
xG merely shows whether a team is carving out decent chances or not. It's more useful than just total shots, which could be 30-yarders that only tested the crowd in Row Z. What's wrong with assigning a value to the quality of a chance?
Uh_huh_him
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2011
- 10,738
I believe it's a stat primarily useful for bookies when calculating odds.
It doesn't have any relevance in relation to points and tables, but is useful for working out odds on total shots / shots on target, total goals and similar.
As a stat to compare what it's like watching us this season and last, I would say it's pretty accurate.
Yeah I just really don't like xG.
Currently, if it was just down to xG (for) alone Man City would be top of the Premier League with Liverpool second and Palace would be bottom. If it was down to the difference between xG and xGA then, again, City would be top, Liverpool second and Newcastle bottom. Either stat sees us comfortably in mid table.
However, in xG Norwich, Watford, Bournemouth and Villa are in the bottom six, and in the difference between the two West Ham and Villa are going down with Newcastle.
It's not therefore utterly useless in showing who the better sides are but it's not 100% reliable either. I tend to use it as a predictor of an exciting game where relatively high xGs and xGAs are involved.
https://understat.com/league/EPL
keaton
Big heart, hot blood and balls. Big balls
- Nov 18, 2004
- 9,672
Nothing but we don't know how accurate it is.
The fact that we have done better this season and the football has been better to watch in the main, justifies the sacking. The other key point is that clubs looking for managers have hardly been falling over themselves to get him in.
By all accounts it was a professional decision and not a personal one. Nobody has a bad word to say about him on a personal level from what I've read.
By all accounts it was a professional decision and not a personal one. Nobody has a bad word to say about him on a personal level from what I've read.
Jurgen Klopp has now started his news conference and began by praising Wednesday's opponents Brighton.
"They are a really good football team," said the Liverpool boss. "What they have done in the last season is incredible, implementing a proper football style.
"It is the biggest challenge in the life of a football manager, to implement your ideas while needing to get results, so I have a lot of respect for Graham Potter for what he is doing there.
"They changed their approach since lockdown, so we don't know exactly what we will face. We need to be ready for that. After that, Burnley, Arsenal and Chelsea are all fighting."
"They are a really good football team," said the Liverpool boss. "What they have done in the last season is incredible, implementing a proper football style.
"It is the biggest challenge in the life of a football manager, to implement your ideas while needing to get results, so I have a lot of respect for Graham Potter for what he is doing there.
"They changed their approach since lockdown, so we don't know exactly what we will face. We need to be ready for that. After that, Burnley, Arsenal and Chelsea are all fighting."
So, to summarise, these are the factors that form the basis of expected goals (xG):
What these don't explain
what is a 'big chance'?
How whether it is a header or struck with the foot makes a difference - why should a simple header be worth less than, say, a bicycle kick on the basis one is with the head, one is with the foot?
How close is the one-on-one? If the striker is on the edge of the box and the goalkeeper is on the line, it's a different situation to if the striker is on the penalty spot and the keeper is on the edge of the six yard box.
What it doesn't take into account:
Quality of player shooting
Quality of defenders
Quality of goalkeeper
Assist quality
Weather conditions
Pitch Conditions
Confidence
Momentum
Injuries
Time of the game/tiredness
How much of the goal is available to aim for
What's at stake? (i.e. if it's missed does it mean you're out of the league, or do you just win 4-0 instead of 5-0?)
So many opinion based variables, is it really any better than shots/shots on target? At least they tell us what happened rather than what some nerd with a calculator thinks should have happened.
- Assist type - long ball, through ball etc.
- Was it a header?
- Was the ball struck with the foot?
- Was it a big chance?
- Angle of the shot
- Distance of the shot
- Was it a one-on-one?
- Did it occur in open play or a from a set-piece?
What these don't explain
what is a 'big chance'?
How whether it is a header or struck with the foot makes a difference - why should a simple header be worth less than, say, a bicycle kick on the basis one is with the head, one is with the foot?
How close is the one-on-one? If the striker is on the edge of the box and the goalkeeper is on the line, it's a different situation to if the striker is on the penalty spot and the keeper is on the edge of the six yard box.
What it doesn't take into account:
Quality of player shooting
Quality of defenders
Quality of goalkeeper
Assist quality
Weather conditions
Pitch Conditions
Confidence
Momentum
Injuries
Time of the game/tiredness
How much of the goal is available to aim for
What's at stake? (i.e. if it's missed does it mean you're out of the league, or do you just win 4-0 instead of 5-0?)
So many opinion based variables, is it really any better than shots/shots on target? At least they tell us what happened rather than what some nerd with a calculator thinks should have happened.
We do know that a header from 24 yards is less likely to go in then a shot from within the 6 yard box. That's the kind of info the xg bods are looking at.
Resistance is futile. Embrace the nerd data world.
Uh_huh_him
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2011
- 10,738
You don't have to love it, just respect that Tony's knowledge of how to use it, has helped put us into the Premier League.
keaton
Big heart, hot blood and balls. Big balls
- Nov 18, 2004
- 9,672
If they gave those stats you could interpret it. Xg just gives you a number
A number based on a bunch of data- how much information do you want? I'm not saying it's something to stake your life on, it's just another part of the picture.
Lifelong Supporter
Well-known member
TB took the decision so it must have been the right decision. I would have liked to have seen CH remain and take the club forward this season. The reality is though that mostly every manager has a shelf life and there comes time for them to move on and a fresh approach introduced. CH's time to move on had come. The players he had were just not good enough for much more than he achieved.
GP has done a good job in his first season. He has introduced a large number of new faces into the squad but there is much work still to be done. I believe that the position we are in is the least TB would have expected with the continuing investment of the club. Significant funds have been used to bring in Maupay Webster, Trossard, Mooy, Lamptey and MacAllister.
We have survived but come next season the pressure and expectation will be higher. I wonder how many years GP will be with us !!
GP has done a good job in his first season. He has introduced a large number of new faces into the squad but there is much work still to be done. I believe that the position we are in is the least TB would have expected with the continuing investment of the club. Significant funds have been used to bring in Maupay Webster, Trossard, Mooy, Lamptey and MacAllister.
We have survived but come next season the pressure and expectation will be higher. I wonder how many years GP will be with us !!
Some relative bargains in there, possibly:
Macallister - signed months before Potter joined us - £7m & later £0.6m fee for ending his loan early.
Lamptey - £3m.
Mooy - £5m.
Good work by Dan Ashworth?
Not sure about Mooy, would have waited until the end of the loan.
Lamptey £3m ? - just wow!
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