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[Albion] Will 6 More Points Be Enough?



el punal

el punal

Well-known member
Aug 29, 2012
11,763
Bitterne,Southampton. In the land of wrong stripes
That is to preserve our Premier League status for next season. With all the results going our way this weekend and us having a 5 point cushion to the bottom three is suddenly a huge boost to our survival hopes. So will 38 points do the trick? With a huge goal difference in our favour against our rivals I am now feeling a bit more optimistic about the upcoming fixtures. One win and perhaps three draws in eight games is do-able. I just hope I’m not being over confident in my assessment. :ohmy:
 










B

big nuts

Well-known member
Jan 15, 2011
4,864
Hove
Icy Gull said:
I doubt it will be enough
Click to expand...

It will almost certainly be enough. If you offered me 38 now I’d take it. 38 points with our GD would require 3 teams to gain 11 points from 8 games (Watford) 12 points (West Ham & Bournemouth) or more far fetched 13 points (Villa)

I can’t see 3 of those 4 winning those points. It’s not impossible but 25/1 at best.
 




M

Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
16,642
Fiveways
Icy Gull said:
I doubt it will be enough
Click to expand...

Why? It'll be more than enough, and it's a sure sign that we're entering the end of the season, because you're getting more uppity, and posting morose comments like this.
Just to justify my claim: there are currently FIVE teams that are amassing less than a point a game. There will need to be three of them (assuming we don't make it, which I suspect is motivating your odd answer) that reach a point per game by the end of the season in order for the survival total to reach 38 (which you doubt will be enough). That means that three of them will not only have to start reaching a point per game over the next eight games, but they'll have to exceed it.
If you really think 38 points won't be enough, why not back up your claim by going LARGE on a spread bet firm on the survival total? That'll be a more productive use of your energies. And, while we're on this, why don't you find your posts from recent seasons indicating your viewpoint at a similar stage of the season of the survival points total, and then compare this with the actual required survival points total?
 


Beach Hut

Beach Hut

Brighton Bhuna Boy
Jul 5, 2003
71,959
Living In a Box
My irrational thinking is just one more win or three points is required as Villa, West Ham and Bournemouth are as bad as they were before the break and Norwich have no chance
 






B

blue-shifted

Banned
Feb 20, 2004
7,645
a galaxy far far away
big nuts said:
It will almost certainly be enough. If you offered me 38 now I’d take it. 38 points with our GD would require 3 teams to gain 11 points from 8 games (Watford) 12 points (West Ham & Bournemouth) or more far fetched 13 points (Villa)

I can’t see 3 of those 4 winning those points. It’s not impossible but 25/1 at best.
Click to expand...

I agree with you Big Nuts. It's possible 38 wouldn't be enough, but highly unlikely. In the same way that the 32 points we already have, might be enough, but it would take a similarly unlikely set of results. Both eventualities are about 20-1 shots.

To me, the points total that would make us more likely than not to stay up, (and i'm assuming our GD doesn't get overhauled, again, unlikely) is 35. West Ham and Bournemouth (17th and 18th) both have 0.9 ppg, if that continues, they end up on 34.2. Meaning actually 34 would be enough, however, I think we can round that up to 35 given the lack of predictability of post lockdown football.

P8 W1 D0 L7. Gives us greater than a 50% chance. That ignores the anecdotal evidence in front of us that West Ham and Bournemouth have big problems. I see nothing in their form to suggest they have the ability or fight to improve their ppg.
 


Stat Brother

Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,663
West west west Sussex
Can we still qualify for The Europa League?
 


GT49er

GT49er

Well-known member
Feb 1, 2009
46,715
Gloucester
el punal said:
Will 6 More Points Be Enough?
Click to expand...

Of course it will. Six more points for us will mean that all three of the teams immediately below us will have to win half of all their eight remaining matches - not just one or two of them, all three of them. Odds on that? Come on ...............................
 














Braggfan

Braggfan

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded
May 12, 2014
1,831
40 is the Magic number, but statistically if you finish on 38 you're still more likely to stay up than go down. I think 38 will be enough this year, but it will probably be close.
 


M

Milano

Well-known member
Aug 15, 2012
3,345
Sussex but not by the sea
I’m actually sorry Norwich are going to go, they try to play football.
I’d love it if Villa and West Ham joined them. The former have too many shithouse players ala Grealish and Mings, the latter due to the utter shithouses in their boardroom.
 


*Gullsworth*

*Gullsworth*

My Hair is like his hair
Jan 20, 2006
9,351
West...West.......WEST SUSSEX
Beat Leicester, Man U, Norwich and we are safe as houses. Sounds impossible but




I know we will lose all three,



But win one draw one lose one will do nicely.
 






B

big nuts

Well-known member
Jan 15, 2011
4,864
Hove
38 points would have kept you up in 18 of the last 21 seasons - 86%
37 points would have kept you up in 17 of the last 21 seasons - 81%
36 points would have kept you up in 12 of the last 21 seasons - 57%
35 points would have kept you up in 11 of the last 21 seasons - 52%
34 points would have kept you up in 7 of the last 21 seasons - 33%

You’d have to say law of averages and the form and points tally’s of the teams below us mean 1 more win is probably enough, 2 and we are almost certainly safe.
 


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