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Germany's R Rate.





vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
27,867
Looks like it out of control in Germany. So much for them having it under control. The powers that be in All European countries want us to start travelling again. It's a No from me. It will spike again everywhere in my opinion.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-germanys-r-number-rockets-again-from-1-79-to-2-88-12012143

I was gobsmacked when Johnson said " we want to get travel started again " the other week, absolutely insane ! I think foreign travel should be banned except for absolute essential travel and that if us Brits want a holiday we stay IN the UK and where possible travel by car in family groups. Mass merging of people to airports from different areas and then landing and spreading out in holiday resorts is insanity if every other country is doing similar, the mixing and merging of people from different societies IS a recipe for calamity.
 






melias shoes

Well-known member
Oct 14, 2010
4,830
I was gobsmacked when Johnson said " we want to get travel started again " the other week, absolutely insane ! I think foreign travel should be banned except for absolute essential travel and that if us Brits want a holiday we stay IN the UK and where possible travel by car in family groups. Mass merging of people to airports from different areas and then landing and spreading out in holiday resorts is insanity if every other country is doing similar, the mixing and merging of people from different societies IS a recipe for calamity.

Couldn't agree more.
 




LamieRobertson

Not awoke
Feb 3, 2008
46,487
SHOREHAM BY SEA
The R rate will fluctuate massively with low numbers. That is why in Germany they dont use it.

...and in that same report it talked about exactly that but Sky chose to omit that but from there story...doesn’t make such a good headline ..they love to worry people and the gullible take it all at face value
 


Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
16,560
Fiveways
Looks like it out of control in Germany. So much for them having it under control. The powers that be in All European countries want us to start travelling again. It's a No from me. It will spike again everywhere in my opinion.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-germanys-r-number-rockets-again-from-1-79-to-2-88-12012143

The important thing to take from this is the possibility of a second wave, not trying to point the finger at Germany. It hasn't been out of control in Germany, unlike in the UK, where the R-rate is still at a worrying level.
 


Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
59,198
The Fatherland
...and in that same report it talked about exactly that but Sky chose to omit that but from there story...doesn’t make such a good headline ..they love to worry people and the gullible take it all at face value

This. Germany has a low numbers, but there have been localised high infection rates in closed-communities such as meat-processing factories and some care homes and some other places. You only need a rudimentary grasp of mathematics to work out this will lead to a high r rate. This has been happening for a few weeks now, and is typically dealt with at a very local level by shut downs.
 




Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patreon
Jul 16, 2003
57,846
hassocks
This. Germany has a low numbers, but there have been localised high infection rates in closed-communities such as meat-processing factories and some care homes and some other places. You only need a rudimentary grasp of mathematics to work out this will lead to a high r rate. This has been happening for a few weeks now, and is typically dealt with at a very local level by shut downs.

Doesn’t fit in with the worlds ending agenda I’m afraid.
 




melias shoes

Well-known member
Oct 14, 2010
4,830
The important thing to take from this is the possibility of a second wave, not trying to point the finger at Germany. It hasn't been out of control in Germany, unlike in the UK, where the R-rate is still at a worrying level.

That's exactly what I was getting at . Not finger pointing. I didn't say it was originally out of control but it seems to be heading that way. A R rate of 2.88 to me is heading to losing control. It won't be long before it is heading back up all over Europe not just the UK.
Also being a small densely populated country like the UK the death rate was always going to be high.
The only way to keep this under control is to do what vegster said holiday in our own country. The moment we start mingling with people at packed airports on packed planes is the moment it spirals out of control again. Madness.
 




Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patreon
Jul 16, 2003
57,846
hassocks
This. Germany has a low numbers, but there have been localised high infection rates in closed-communities such as meat-processing factories and some care homes and some other places. You only need a rudimentary grasp of mathematics to work out this will lead to a high r rate. This has been happening for a few weeks now, and is typically dealt with at a very local level by shut downs.

Doesn’t fit in with the worlds ending agenda I’m afraid.
 


melias shoes

Well-known member
Oct 14, 2010
4,830
This. Germany has a low numbers, but there have been localised high infection rates in closed-communities such as meat-processing factories and some care homes and some other places. You only need a rudimentary grasp of mathematics to work out this will lead to a high r rate. This has been happening for a few weeks now, and is typically dealt with at a very local level by shut downs.

Good to hear.
 






Poojah

Well-known member
Nov 19, 2010
1,881
Leeds
I've been a consistent contributor to the good news thread, with my general opinion being that effective social distancing forces Covid-19 to become something less devastating over time, thus the lack of a second wave in many countries despite the relaxation of lockdowns.

I have to admit though, this headline has been the most jarring yet for my optimism. However, as explained by others already the concept of Germany's R rate being back to levels close to the UK's at peak needs further context; the baseline is low and outbreaks are localised.

I'd file this under 'one to watch'. This doesn't necessarily mean that we are now suddenly doomed to the dreaded second wave (which would be an economic catastrophy), nor should it be dismissed as an insignificant development. Let's see where we are in a week.
 


LamieRobertson

Not awoke
Feb 3, 2008
46,487
SHOREHAM BY SEA
Oh, those 50,000+ gullible people, how stupid of them!

Who mentioned 50k people? I didn’t ..perhaps you’ll rethink that...of course if you want to take each media headline at face value then carry on..I won’t be....perhaps gullible is the wrong word..but people get taken in with headlines and it can rule there lives ...Sky clearly chose the dramatic tone ..there’s enough scaremongering out there as it is.
 
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darkwolf666

Well-known member
Nov 8, 2015
7,575
Sittingbourne, Kent
Who mentioned 50k people? I didn’t ..perhaps you’ll rethink that...of course if you want to take each media headline at face value then carry on..I won’t be....perhaps gullible is the wrong word..but people get taken in with headlines and it can rule there lives ...Sky clearly chose the dramatic tone ..there’s enough scaremongering out there as it is.

Agree re the News channels wanting to outdo eachother when it comes to stories.

I just objected to your use of the word gullible when potentially over 50,000 people have already died from Covid.

Confirmation bias is a word I have heard bandied about a lot lately, and clearly it fits both sides of the argument...

You clearly believe everything in the garden is now Rosey (mine is, as I've spent the last 13 weeks there), so will have no truck with anyone who says otherwise.
Whereas others, like me, who have someone in our house who is likely to die if they end up in hospital with Covid, tend to focus on the more negative reports - just human nature from both sides I guess.
 


CheeseRolls

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jan 27, 2009
5,922
Shoreham Beach
A post Covid normal without a global foolproof vaccine, has to include outbreaks of infection. Strangely our governments most ridiculed slogan stay alert is I think precisely the right message, shame they have lost their bottle over this one. We need to check the local infection rate daily the same way as so many do for the weather and adjust our behaviour accordingly. Our governments NEED to ensure that they are fully behind track and trace and do whatever is needed to make it work. Spikes are not a problem, if they are discovered quickly and dealt with.
 




LamieRobertson

Not awoke
Feb 3, 2008
46,487
SHOREHAM BY SEA
Agree re the News channels wanting to outdo eachother when it comes to stories.

I just objected to your use of the word gullible when potentially over 50,000 people have already died from Covid.

Confirmation bias is a word I have heard bandied about a lot lately, and clearly it fits both sides of the argument...

You clearly believe everything in the garden is now Rosey (mine is, as I've spent the last 13 weeks there), so will have no truck with anyone who says otherwise.
Whereas others, like me, who have someone in our house who is likely to die if they end up in hospital with Covid, tend to focus on the more negative reports - just human nature from both sides I guess.

Nope don’t believe everything in the garden is rosey at all ..but for my own and others mental health I’ll look for the positive .we all have our burdens to bear..whether we share them on here or not. Anyway I’ve no desire to pick an argument with you so let’s move on
 


darkwolf666

Well-known member
Nov 8, 2015
7,575
Sittingbourne, Kent
Nope don’t believe everything in the garden is rosey at all ..but for my own and others mental health I’ll look for the positive .we all have our burdens to bear..whether we share them on here or not. Anyway I’ve no desire to pick an argument with you so let’s move on

No argument mate, I get a bit spikey and react to things, when maybe under different circumstances I wouldn't... Apologies!
 



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