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[Politics] Jacinda Arden
- Thread starter Medwayseagull
- Start date
Is it PotG?
Thrifty non-licker
Minor outbreak announced 
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-breaks-out-again-in-new-zealand-after-102-days-12047011
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-breaks-out-again-in-new-zealand-after-102-days-12047011
Bladders
Twats everywhere
My mate says she’s shithouse
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Minor outbreak announced
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-breaks-out-again-in-new-zealand-after-102-days-12047011
Not f**king about with their response though:
All that, on the basis of four cases, from one household. Fair play. Short-term pain, long-term gain.
sydney
tinky ****in winky
pretty sad that an island of 2 million inhabitants is being locked down for the sake of 2 people .......this virus will mutate so if we get it in 3 years it will probably kill more ...just saying
I think you may have misunderstood how human transmissible viruses work. In your defence, there's not been much about it in the news lately...
Ooh it’s a corner
Well-known member
Swift and decisive response from an empathetic LEADER - admirable and contrasting to others who purport to lead
Exactly this.
New Zealand had an easier job than the UK wrt Covid 19 for sure. I'd just rather we'd had Adern in charge as we all know it would have been handled far far better.
But she would probably have thought it was worth questioning some aspects of Brexit, so the "free press" would have done a job on her and made sure she didn't have a chance of getting in.
Is it PotG?
Thrifty non-licker
I get it now. If a manager does a decent job at Notts County, he'll be a shoo-in for the Man City job.
arewethereyet?
Well-known member
Let’s get the figures correct for you,
NZ as a whole has a population of 4.8 million, Auckland has a population of 1.6 million, so that’s cleared up your 2 million figure that you plucked from somewhere and for the sake of 2 people, well it’s actually 4 people with the virus.
highflyer
Well-known member
- Jan 21, 2016
- 2,435
More along the lines of 'if a manager proves themselves extremely competent, first in the Swedish leagues and then in the championship with (plucking a random name here) a team such as Swansea...then maybe it would be fair to assume that they might be a good bet to do well for a medium sized team with aspirations to get into the top ten in the premier league?
Let's be clear, at the global level the UK is not Man City!
sydney
tinky ****in winky
having lived there for 3 years in the 80's i would hazard a wild guess that 80% of the population is in Auckland and Wellington....and given the fact the Island has been virtually closed for the last 4 months it's obviously disappointing for them to have been compromised again with this dreadful virus that has a less than a 0.5% mortality rate.
Is it PotG?
Thrifty non-licker
Wonderful point, and eloquently put.
I maintain, however, that the demands on a day-to-day basis and the attitudes of the populous are a little different here.
One only needs to see beaches and some bars as evidence of conformity here. I would like to see the NZ boss handle this and get ALL of the nation onside before I praised too much.
Billy the Fish
Technocrat
Can't see what they're gaining from shutting down a whole city because of 4 cases. It's total overkill, they only need to contact trace, they could easily just enforced social distancing for a few days without closing a whole economy. Are they going to hit the panic button every time there's a positive case?
Tom Hark Preston Park
Will Post For Cash
- Jul 6, 2003
- 70,192
This. Especially as the 4 cases are reportedly from a single family
Uncle C
Well-known member
Covid cases identified in UK approx 312,000.
Covid deaths in UK approx 46,000.
Thats approx 15%
Kosh
'The' Yaztromo
I rather think the word ‘identified’ is key here... the initial failure to test the general population and the shambolic testing procedure in general, not to mention the asymptotic multitude milling about ... well it doesn’t take a genius to work out that the figures are (well) bollocks. The transfer speed globally suggests a far higher case rate than testing could ever keep up with and thus it’s fairly safe to assume the actual mortality rate is far, far lower. However, in serious cases (those identified, requiring hospital treatment) it’s a stark and high figure ... mostly bourne from an ageing population and the victory of modern science over mild illnesses.
I still think, however, there is a relative overreaction vs actual death risk to the fit proportion in society, however (again) even 1% of the current (bloated) global population is frankly terrifying.
When you look at it, as a government... 1% of nothing, well it’s nothing... 1% of 6 billion hmmmmmmm
It’s easy to talk figures, especially as a % the issue we face is that pandemics will (as they have always done, since global movement began) continue to wreak havoc... this particular one is seemingly virtually airborne and again it’s going nowhere fast... how governments react is based purely on whether they can idly let it play out or not... it’s Hobson’s choice.
Source please for that mortality rate figure.
It's dangerous to rely on the overall mortality rate:
1. The mortality rate varies a lot depending on demographics. Young (under 30), white, female? You're unlucky to even show symptoms, let alone get sick enough to require hospital treatment. Old (over 60), black, male? Chances are very high you'll need hospitalisation, and the mortality rate once there is a lot higher than 0.5%. The mortality rate in UK care homes has been eye-wateringly bad: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...uk-care-homes-13-times-higher-than-in-germany - over 5% of all residents in care homes died from covid-19. The actual mortality rate will be higher than that, as a lot of care homes managed to avoid having any covid cases. There's been reports of some homes having mortality rates of over half their residents having had major covid outbreaks.
2. The 0.5% number that gets bandied around a lot isn't accurate anyway. See https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality - the UK currently has a nearly 15% mortality rate for confirmed cases. That will be a big over-estimate, as our testing regime has been so piss-poor we'll have missed a lot of non-symptomatic cases early on (and probably still do now). On the flipside, it may also fail to take into account a lot of care home deaths from early in the pandemic where testing was not being carried out and Covid was not confirmed as being involved in the death as a result. However, if you look down the page you'll see that based on current knowledge a fairly good estimate of the real mortality rate is probably somewhere between 2% and 5%. But again, that fails to take into account demographics (see point 1).
3. There is increasing evidence that this virus can leave affected individuals who survive with long term health issues. There is significant risk of stroke after recovery, there is significant risk of long term lung damage, issues with chronic fatigue, etc.
4. The mortality rate for Covid-19 does not, and will not, take into account the additional deaths that occur as a result of the period when the NHS was at full stretch handling the peak of the crisis causing treatment for other diseases to be delayed (eg cancer patients who die unnecessarily due to their treatments being delayed).
5. There's growing evidence that this virus can attack us multiple times. It's closely related to the common cold, which we already know we lose immunity to between 3-6 months after the last time we had. Many members of society who survived hospitalisation due to covid-19 the first time around, may not survive a second encounter with the virus.
The mortality rate number (even in that 2-5% range) may not look high. But it's not just the mortality rate that matters - it's the background situation. Seasonal flu, for example, we have vaccines for to help protect those vulnerable to it. Flu has also been around for a long time, and it's well known how best to treat it to minimise the risk of death - and, crucially, if you get flu you know about it as barely anyone has flu without having significant symptoms. These are all things that don't, currently, apply to Covid-19. We're only now starting to discover effective treatments, we don't have a validated vaccine yet (despite what the Russians might want to claim), it is possible to catch and pass on the virus without knowing you have it, and before the pandemic started no one had any exposure to it before and thus no immunity in the community. Covid-19, therefore, spreads easily - which makes it far more likely that those who are susceptible to dying from it are far more likely to catch it, and having caught it are at greater risk of death.
It is highly irresponsible for anyone to make light of this disease by minimising it's impact throwing around a theory that the world has over-reacted because the mortality rate is "low". Especially if you're bandying around an unproven, unsourced percentage for that mortality rate.
Why take the chance? They've shut down for three days whilst they build a better understanding of the problem in order to act accordingly. Assuming this family haven't been abroad lately, they're not the only cases.
New Zealand is practically the only nation on the planet that has been able to establish virtual social and economic normality. Wouldn't we all like some of that right now? They're not going to let go of that lightly, and I don't blame them.
Ignore the 46k deaths number that gets reported daily in the press. It's known to be highly inaccurate at this point. Firstly, it missed a lot of deaths early on as it only counts those who had a positive test (and the testing regime early on was terrible). Secondly, it now counts everyone who dies who ever had a positive test for covid - even if that death was caused by a car accident, for example.
The ONS weekly reports (most recent taking us to the end of July) reports over 51k covid-19 related deaths (as measured by it being mentioned on death certificates) and that numbers excludes Scotland and Northern Ireland. Looking at the latest numbers from Scotland, we can take that estimate to 55k. Up to date numbers for Northern Ireland are hard to find, but look low - a good rough estimate of the UK total probably sits at ~56k for end of July.