[Finance] Statistics/Data Calculation problem

The Optimist said:

If I understand I think:
net gains = games won x (odd-1) - games lost
So for 12/13 net gains = 212 x 0.88 - 168 = 18.56
Yield = (gains / stake) x100
So for 12/13 yield = (18.56 / 380) x100 = 4.88%

The only question I have is it says max odds. Presumably the odds changed per game and then it matters what the odds were on the games won and lost.

Click to expand...

The Optimist said:

If I understand I think:
net gains = games won x (odd-1) - games lost
So for 12/13 net gains = 212 x 0.88 - 168 = 18.56
Yield = (gains / stake) x100
So for 12/13 yield = (18.56 / 380) x100 = 4.88%

The only question I have is it says max odds. Presumably the odds changed per game and then it matters what the odds were on the games won and lost.

Click to expand...

schmunk said:

I have the same understanding (although I would have done net gains = (games won x odd) - total games, but this gives the same answer!)

Click to expand...

neilbard said:

The odds are the average odds taken over each season.

Click to expand...

schmunk said:

I have the same understanding (although I would have done net gains = (games won x odd) - total games, but this gives the same answer!)

Click to expand...

The Optimist said:

In which case you'll only ever get an estimate of the net gains and yield. The estimate is also likely to be an overestimate as presumably you were more likely to win on games with shorter odds and less likely to win on games with longer odds. You need the average odds for just the games won.

Click to expand...

neilbard said:

Thanks guys for your help, Table 1. Shows the calculations using Max. Average Odds which I used, whereas Table 2. Shows calculations using actual odds per game, which my colleague used.

This shows a big difference.

Click to expand...

dsr-burnley said:

At risk of stating the obvious, if you've been doing different sums, you're bound to get different answers.

Click to expand...