How long do you think this shit will go on and what happens if its really long?

sparkie · May 12, 2020

crodonilson said:
Fair enough, everyone has different circumstances and opinions, and many people will be similar to you but if we all take this approach it will be almost impossible to get the economy moving and if we are shutting down the economy until the last quarter of the year the consequences down the line will be catastrophic. I'm also not sure what will be in place to make schools that much safer in September than they will be in June.

Also this is a forum where people express their opinions, we all have one and it's good to have debate but if you're so precious as to have to resort to calling someone a tool for not agreeing with you then maybe this isn't for you. Maybe try and be a bit kinder, have a nice day.

Express your opinions to your heart's content.

You got called a tool for casting judgement and telling people how they should parent their children.

Perhaps you can be a bit kinder from the saddle on your high horse ?

But you are right. Perhaps I don't need to read parental dictats from strangers, and because of them this "isn't for me".

Swansman · May 12, 2020

crodonilson said:
Fair enough, everyone has different circumstances and opinions, and many people will be similar to you but if we all take this approach it will be almost impossible to get the economy moving and if we are shutting down the economy until the last quarter of the year the consequences down the line will be catastrophic.

Wouldnt necessarily be the case if neo-liberal views of how the economy works and could work were not treated as laws of nature. A significant part of (service) economies could work fine even with signifcant portions not going to work if markets and banking were (swearing in thatcherian church) regulated.

crodonilson · May 12, 2020

sparkie said:
Express your opinions to your heart's content.

You got called a tool for casting judgement and telling people how they should parent their children.

Perhaps you can be a bit kinder from the saddle on your high horse ?

But you are right. Perhaps I don't need to read parental dictats from strangers.

I don't believe I did tell anyone how to parent their children, I have a child of primary school age and with the extra precautions and smaller class sizes taking place I will be sending her back when the time comes if and when the government deems it safe for children to go back. I think it is in all of our interests to try and get the country up and running, albeit with all of the new measures which are happening, as soon as possible.

Chicken Run · May 12, 2020

crodonilson said:
I don't believe I did tell anyone how to parent their children, I have a child of primary school age and with the extra precautions and smaller class sizes taking place I will be sending her back when the time comes if and when the government deems it safe for children to go back. I think it is in all of our interests to try and get the country up and running, albeit with all of the new measures which are happening, as soon as possible.

Agreed.

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A1X · May 12, 2020

Eventually we have to live with it in some measure. We are currently in lockdown not to shield ourselves from the virus but to prevent the ICUs being overrun when everyone gets it in the space of about 6 weeks. A normal flu season will see that happen over the period of 6 months and that's bad enough.

Mellotron · May 12, 2020

Depends what you mean by "this shit".

The virus will probably be around forever, but I also believe that it will become increasingly weaker - death by a thousand cuts - within 6-12 months and onwards.

blue-shifted · May 12, 2020

Personally, I doubt we'll get our miracle vaccine in the next few years.

My view is that we can't hide away for ever. We should be using this time to massively up our healthcare capacity before removing lockdown, age group by age group. Starting with up to 25 year olds, then whenever the spike is dealt with, 25 to 30, etc etc

Sadly, the elderly and vulnerable will probably never make it back out of lockdown.

Tom Hark Preston Park · May 12, 2020

'The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. Lasting for more than 12 months from spring 1918 to early summer 1919, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world's population at the time.' [Wikipedia]

The 1918 flu pandemic passed. This will too. With an almighty assist from hugely improved science and greatly increased general awareness of best practice in defeating it

Jim in the West · May 12, 2020

I was talking to a colleague in Sweden yesterday. The policy there is to have SOME restrictions, but not too severe, because they recognise that the virus will be with us for a long time, and you can't impose draconian lockdown for very long. So, in Sweden, primary school kids are at school, bars and restaurants are open (although in restaurants every other table is empty, and in bars it's table service only). People are using public transport, which is about 30% of normal capacity. It's all very different to here (and, indeed, many other countries). Their government seems to have been very upfront about the risks and the reasons for the measures. Swedes aren't expecting things to dramatically improve any time soon, but they have about enough freedom to lead a semi-normal life.

narly101 · May 12, 2020

I don't see a particular view on here from the Teachers. Be interesting to hear what they have to say as they'll be putting their lives and the lives of their families at the front of it. NHS workers have been isolating themselves from the rest of their families because of the risks. Should teachers from the 1st June, be doing the same?

Notters · May 12, 2020

narly101 said:
I don't see a particular view on here from the Teachers. Be interesting to hear what they have to say as they'll be putting their lives and the lives of their families at the front of it. NHS workers have been isolating themselves from the rest of their families because of the risks. Should teachers from the 1st June, be doing the same?

Aren't most of them still working anyway, for the kids of key workers? My sister in law is (year 4 primary).

keaton · May 12, 2020

Notters said:
Aren't most of them still working anyway, for the kids of key workers? My sister in law is (year 4 primary).

But they're doing less days a week physically in school and are able to keep children to safe distancing at the moment. They won't be able to do this when more children attend. There will also be more risk from passing it on to or from keyworkers via school and from the children using public transport to and from those on the trains and buses.

Thunder Bolt · May 12, 2020

Is it mutating or are people getting lax in Wuhan? Six new cases there today.

Billy the Fish · May 12, 2020

do we now live in a society that will always be forever looking over its shoulder....

That might not be too far from the truth. The global population is rising exponentially, if you think of it purely as a numbers game it's just a bigger habitat for a virus to live in and more chances of jumping the species barrier. More people living in poverty adds fuel to the fire.

Really we need to develop a global repose system.

WilburySeagull · May 12, 2020

keaton said:
But they're doing less days a week physically in school and are able to keep children to safe distancing at the moment. They won't be able to do this when more children attend. There will also be more risk from passing it on to or from keyworkers via school and from the children using public transport to and from those on the trains and buses.

The science relating to children getting and passing on the virus appears very uncertain. The latest view appears to be they are not key carriers but I have not seen the evidence.

Teachers are not in the same position as nhs staff because the latter are dealing with seriouly ill people all the time. Having said that no one should be told to work i an environment that is knowingly unsafe.

I also think that sending reception and year 1 kids back is effectively ditching social distancing for them: even 12 in a room will not magically make them able to distance. I say that as a grandad of a 5 and 8 year old living in the same household with them and mum who is a nurse. Even for us who try to distance its a huge problem for little o es to remember.

narly101 · May 12, 2020

Notters said:
Aren't most of them still working anyway, for the kids of key workers? My sister in law is (year 4 primary).

They are but it's limited. They're in on a shift basis dependent on the needs of the key worker kids - so for instance my wife (Year 3) at a single form entry school, is in around 2 days every 2 weeks (around 19 kids max from the whole school). If you look at 1st June regs, it could mean c90 kids for a single form entry school which would increase the amount of staff who would be required to come back, plus continuing to school the other years remotely.

narly101 · May 12, 2020

So the government advice for education establishments provides this scientific advice;

"What does the latest scientific advice say?
We have been guided by scientific advice at every stage. The latest scientific advice to government is that:

there is high scientific confidence that children of all ages have less severe symptoms than adults if they contract coronavirus and there is moderately high scientific confidence that younger children are less likely to become unwell if infected with coronavirus
limiting the numbers of children going back to school and college initially then gradually increasing numbers, guided by scientific advice, reduces risk of increasing the rate of transmission
schools and other settings can make changes to how they are organised and put measures in place to reduce risks
We have provided advice to schools and other settings on the steps they should consider taking, this includes:

limiting the amount of contact between different groups of children (such as smaller class sizes with children and staff spread out more)
additional protective measures, such as increased cleaning and encouraging good hand and respiratory hygiene"

This doesn't touch on the elephant in the room - can children who are likely to be asymptomatic pass on the virus, and how likely is that?

Albion Dan · May 12, 2020

The problem is how the messaging and media have whipped up a frenzy where everyone is now sh&&ting themselves way beyond the actual risk of the disease killing you. If this goes on really long the sentiment of people wanting to hide away waiting for a cure that may never come is going to have to change as if we don't get back to some sort of normal then we are going to live in a world where huge swathes of the population live on a universal credit system living hand to mouth. The prospect for our children will be a world where employment is scarce.

BLOCK F · May 12, 2020

blue-shifted said:
Personally, I doubt we'll get our miracle vaccine in the next few years.

My view is that we can't hide away for ever. We should be using this time to massively up our healthcare capacity before removing lockdown, age group by age group. Starting with up to 25 year olds, then whenever the spike is dealt with, 25 to 30, etc etc

Sadly, the elderly and vulnerable will probably never make it back out of lockdown.

Blimey blue-shifted, you must truly be feeling extra blue today.
As an older gent of almost 72 do you really think that the likes of me will be unlikely to make it out of lockdown or are you talking about the vulnerable shielders with underlying conditions?
Anyway, I can assure you that not many of my age will be prepared to live our lives out under 'house arrest', come hell or high water!

narly101 · May 12, 2020

Albion Dan said:
The problem is how the messaging and media have whipped up a frenzy where everyone is now sh&&ting themselves way beyond the actual risk of the disease killing you. If this goes on really long the sentiment of people wanting to hide away waiting for a cure that may never come is going to have to change as if we don't get back to some sort of normal then we are going to live in a world where huge swathes of the population live on a universal credit system living hand to mouth. The prospect for our children will be a world where employment is scarce.

Speaking on behalf of myself and my family, I'm not particularly "shitting" myself about a virus which could kill me (I'm most likely to have had it way back in February), but it's the worry about who I could pass it on to if I carry it. The testing fiasco in this country is appalling. If you could implement testing for all essential workers and their families regardless of whether you have symptoms or not would go a little way to appeasing my concerns. It's the asymptomatic concern which seems to be falling through the cracks.

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How long do you think this shit will go on and what happens if its really long?

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