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[Travel] When do you think full scale international travel will open up again?

When can we travel again?

  • 0-3 Months (We'll be travelling again by July)

    Votes: 7 3.8%

  • 3-6 Months (Sometime between Aug-Oct)

    Votes: 53 29.0%

  • 6-9 Months (Sometime between Nov-Jan)

    Votes: 42 23.0%

  • 9-12 Months (Sometime between Feb 21-Apr 21)

    Votes: 37 20.2%

  • More than 12 months (Not before May 21)

    Votes: 23 12.6%

  • More than 18 months (Not before Nov 21)

    Votes: 12 6.6%

  • More than 2 years (Not before May 22)

    Votes: 6 3.3%

  • Even longer!

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • Total voters
    183


Ⓩ-Ⓐ-Ⓜ-Ⓞ-Ⓡ-Ⓐ

Ⓩ-Ⓐ-Ⓜ-Ⓞ-Ⓡ-Ⓐ

Hove / Παρος
Apr 7, 2006
6,540
Hove / Παρος
How long until we can just hop on a plane and go anywhere again?

We own a restaurant abroad in a town that is heavily dependant on tourism. As a best case scenario we're hoping things will get back to some kind of normality, although in lesser numbers, by January 2021. Although if we have a huge surge in US/European Coronavirus in cases again over next winter, perhaps it won't be until April 2021. I can't see any scenarios where it's sooner than 8-9 months away.

I imagine international air travel will be the very last thing to be reopened as it will require international cooperation from many countries, dependant on how much the virus is under control in each respective country. Probably some routes will open up sooner, I can see travel within Europe being possible perhaps in 3-4 months.

Poll to follow.

Edit: Doh! Forgot to click "Add Poll"!

2nd Edit: Found the retrospective poll button!
 
Last edited:






dazzer6666

dazzer6666

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Mar 27, 2013
52,385
Burgess Hill
sydney said:
8 - 10 months minimum.........and you will probably need to have been vaccinated to get on a plane/boat.
Click to expand...

Bit awkward as very unlikely to be a vaccine rolled out to the masses by then......

Think it'll be earlier, but with pre-boarding and arrival healthchecks (as has been happening in Asia for years), a degree of distancing on planes (for example middle seats empty as Easyjet are already proposing) and a ton of country-by-country restrictions that will roll on and off depending on the prevalence of CV19 infection rates.
 


Wilko

Wilko

LUZZING chairs about
Sep 19, 2003
9,922
BN1
As a frequent traveller and someone who is trying to tick off every country in the world, this is one area I am gutted about. I tend to tick off at least 5 new countries a year but this year will get to none! I know in the grand scheme of things it does not matter and the health and well being of people is most important of course but as you say. cannot see any international travel in 2020 t all.
 


sydney

sydney

tinky ****in winky
Jul 11, 2003
17,750
town full of eejits
dazzer6666 said:
Bit awkward as very unlikely to be a vaccine rolled out to the masses by then......

Think it'll be earlier, but with pre-boarding and arrival healthchecks (as has been happening in Asia for years), a degree of distancing on planes (for example middle seats empty as Easyjet are already proposing) and a ton of country-by-country restrictions that will roll on and off depending on the prevalence of CV19 infection rates.
Click to expand...


i hope so mate.....we'll see.:mad:
 






Chicken Run

Chicken Run

Member Since Jul 2003
NSC Patron
Jul 17, 2003
18,432
Valley of Hangleton
Wilko said:
As a frequent traveller and someone who is trying to tick off every country in the world, this is one area I am gutted about. I tend to tick off at least 5 new countries a year but this year will get to none! I know in the grand scheme of things it does not matter and the health and well being of people is most important of course but as you say. cannot see any international travel in 2020 t all.
Click to expand...

Have you been to Lichtenstein?
 


mikeyjh

mikeyjh

Well-known member
Dec 17, 2008
4,486
Llanymawddwy
No chance it will be within 12 months, zero - Even when it does start up, supply will be low, prices may be much higher than we're used to..... Those airlines that are still in existence will take months to get up to full capacity.
 




Blue Valkyrie

Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
No idea really, but I doubt it'll start in any meaningful way before the end of this year.
 


Mellotron

Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
31,835
Brighton
Some level of travel in late 2020 IF there isn’t a big wave in autumn/winter, then full scale from next spring/summer.
 


Notters

Notters

Well-known member
Oct 20, 2003
24,869
Guiseley
It depends what you mean by full scale? I imagine there could be one or two countries which get the virus late on who may have restrictions for some time?
 




Swansman

Swansman

Pro-peace
May 13, 2019
22,320
Sweden
Sweden remains open for travel from EU countries + UK, Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein.

Full, unrestricted international travel as before... at least two years.
 


highflyer

highflyer

Well-known member
Jan 21, 2016
2,434
I suspect never. At least, not back to where we were.

Obviously it will 'open up' again to some extent, and I hope that will mean that for smaller scale and flexible businesses (which I am hoping is you) there is a positive future.

But I cannot see things going back to where they in terms of the 'use aeroplanes like buses' culture we have built up over last couple of decades.

There will essays written elsewhere on this. But here are some of my initial thoughts:

- People will have less money and thus won't travel, which will reduce volume overall and push up costs (thus having a knock on effect) for those that still have the means and desire to fly. God knows what will happen in reality, but I personally don't buy the 'V shaped instant recovery' theories. I think it will take a few years and in that time culture will shift away from the expectation that we can hop on a plane and fly almost anywhere for a few quid.

- A lot of airines/travel businesses will have gone under and the sense of how risky/fragile that sector is will make it hard to get investment to re-expand. So there will be less competition and less companies prepared to operate at a loss in order to gain bigger market share. Again pushing up costs and lowering volumes.

- Even after the immediate threat of Covid-19 (which is itself likely to last quite a long time at the global level, even after a vaccination exists) there will be lingering uneasiness about international travel amongst a lot of people. Would you book a trip to China, or a cruise (which usually involves flying) in the near future?

- Reduction in business travel (as people have learnt it is both possible and much much cheaper to talk to each other on line) will be maintained to some extent, and that reduction in volume will push up costs for others

- Climate change hasn't gone away. It remains to be seen how far we are going to 're-set' post crisis (I'm not very optimistic with regard to UK and US governments, but there will be others that are going to go in a different direction and we are likely to get dragged along). There will certainly be a lot of pressure for any fiscal stimulus to be directed, at least in part, towards building a low carbon economy.

I personally think we needed this change, but wish this could have happened over a longer time and in a planned and managed way. The sudden crash is going to cause a lot of worry and misery (I also work in a sector that's going to be decimated and have no idea how I'll maintain any income longer term, so I am not blind to how this feels). But the industry has had its head in the sand, and assumed they could carry on flying and expanding indefinitely and somehow climate change solutions would come from elsewhere.
 








sydney

sydney

tinky ****in winky
Jul 11, 2003
17,750
town full of eejits
highflyer said:
I suspect never. At least, not back to where we were.

Obviously it will 'open up' again to some extent, and I hope that will mean that for smaller scale and flexible businesses (which I am hoping is you) there is a positive future.

But I cannot see things going back to where they in terms of the 'use aeroplanes like buses' culture we have built up over last couple of decades.

There will essays written elsewhere on this. But here are some of my initial thoughts:

- People will have less money and thus won't travel, which will reduce volume overall and push up costs (thus having a knock on effect) for those that still have the means and desire to fly. God knows what will happen in reality, but I personally don't buy the 'V shaped instant recovery' theories. I think it will take a few years and in that time culture will shift away from the expectation that we can hop on a plane and fly almost anywhere for a few quid.

- A lot of airines/travel businesses will have gone under and the sense of how risky/fragile that sector is will make it hard to get investment to re-expand. So there will be less competition and less companies prepared to operate at a loss in order to gain bigger market share. Again pushing up costs and lowering volumes.

- Even after the immediate threat of Covid-19 (which is itself likely to last quite a long time at the global level, even after a vaccination exists) there will be lingering uneasiness about international travel amongst a lot of people. Would you book a trip to China, or a cruise (which usually involves flying) in the near future?

- Reduction in business travel (as people have learnt it is both possible and much much cheaper to talk to each other on line) will be maintained to some extent, and that reduction in volume will push up costs for others

- Climate change hasn't gone away. It remains to be seen how far we are going to 're-set' post crisis (I'm not very optimistic with regard to UK and US governments, but there will be others that are going to go in a different direction and we are likely to get dragged along). There will certainly be a lot of pressure for any fiscal stimulus to be directed, at least in part, towards building a low carbon economy.

I personally think we needed this change, but wish this could have happened over a longer time and in a planned and managed way. The sudden crash is going to cause a lot of worry and misery (I also work in a sector that's going to be decimated and have no idea how I'll maintain any income longer term, so I am not blind to how this feels). But the industry has had its head in the sand, and assumed they could carry on flying and expanding indefinitely and somehow climate change solutions would come from elsewhere.
Click to expand...

time for the CIA to release some of its alien tekkers......:D:D
 


Silverhatch

Silverhatch

Well-known member
Feb 23, 2009
4,300
Preston Park
All dependent on 2nd/3rd wave, vaccine availability, reliable antibody testing/immunology, economic recovery and how many airlines are still in business. They'll also be a renewed and vigorous debate about the necessity for business air travel and moving large numbers of people globally for conferences etc. In other words... **** knows.
 






ManOfSussex

ManOfSussex

We wunt be druv
Apr 11, 2016
14,745
Rape of Hastings, Sussex
On a related note and I said this to a friend last week who was the same, I can't actually remember the last time I even saw a plane in the sky.
 


Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,719
Back in Sussex
ManOfSussex said:
On a related note and I said this to a friend last week who was the same, I can't actually remember the last time I even saw a plane in the sky.
Click to expand...

The last time I did - a couple of weeks or so ago, I opened up a "what's that plane" type app, and it was a Fedex cargo plane that had come from Memphis and was going to Paris.
 


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