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[News] The UK’s “Three Stage” Exit Strategy To Ease The Coronavirus Lockdown



Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,575
Back in Sussex
(Yes, I know this should belong in the CV sub-forum, but I think it's a discussion that might best live here, for a while at least, given its significance)

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/coronavirus-uk-lockdown-three-stage-exit-plan

As ministers publicly remained tight-lipped about a so-called “exit strategy” for lockdown — and some in cabinet complained that they were being kept out of the loop on Downing Street’s plans — BuzzFeed News can reveal:

A “best case scenario” being worked on by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) hopes to end lockdown restrictions for certain non-essential shops and industries in the short-term, from early to mid-May.

Some social distancing measures could then gradually be relaxed in the medium-term, in June and July, eventually leading to the reopening of pubs and restaurants towards the end of the summer.

Long-term “shielding” for elderly and vulnerable people could mean the public being told they face limits on seeing over-70s parents or grandparents for as long as 12-18 months until a vaccine is found.

The timeline relies on SAGE scientists calculating how many new COVID-19 infections per day the UK’s test and trace capabilities can manage, and an “impossible” political decision for Downing Street on how many deaths per day they are willing to accept in order to be able to lift some restrictions before there is a vaccine.​
 


Tim Over Whelmed

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 24, 2007
10,163
Arundel
Wow, that isn't looking good for the travel and hospitality industries. I was rather hoping UK travel sector would get a unexpected boost this Summer.
 


Bob!

Coffee Buyer
Jul 5, 2003
11,058
"The strategy will depend heavily on significant improvements in infection rate data over the next three weeks,
Britain dramatically increasing its testing and contact tracing capacity,
tens of millions of people downloading a new NHS app,
the efficacy of antiviral drugs at reducing symptoms of COVID-19,
and strict measures remaining in place for elderly and vulnerable people until a vaccine is found."

Gonna be a while before it can be introduced then.
 


Guinness Boy

Tofu eating wokerati
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patreon
Jul 23, 2003
33,809
Up and Coming Sunny Portslade
I was just going to move this to the sub-forum and then I saw who posted it and read the opening paragraph...….

I played poker online with a group of mates last night and one of them has a daughter who works in a big West End theatre. He said she's been told that she can't reasonably expect to go back to work before the end of October at the earliest. If anything this leaked timeline looks very optimistic.
 


ManOfSussex

We wunt be druv
Apr 11, 2016
14,729
Rape of Hastings, Sussex
"Part of the reason is that it is now believed fewer people have contracted the virus than the experts expected"

Doesn't that contradict some studies that think more people have had it than thought and herd immunity etc?
 




Tim Over Whelmed

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 24, 2007
10,163
Arundel
"The strategy will depend heavily on significant improvements in infection rate data over the next three weeks,
Britain dramatically increasing its testing and contact tracing capacity,
tens of millions of people downloading a new NHS app,
the efficacy of antiviral drugs at reducing symptoms of COVID-19,
and strict measures remaining in place for elderly and vulnerable people until a vaccine is found."

Gonna be a while before it can be introduced then.

The COVID-19 App this morning only showed 2.5m users, so you're right, some way to go, only 2,500 in the Arun District.
 


studio150

Well-known member
Jul 30, 2011
29,553
On the Border
An interesting read.

A little disappointed in the option to relax lockdown by age bands, as I assume that it would younger people who would be released first, so that anyone in their 50s or 60s will be left at home for a lot longer.

Also a little worried about the app requirement given that most Government IT is at best useless.
 


Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
73,363
West west west Sussex
What's NSC's exit strategy from being 'kind'?
 




Guinness Boy

Tofu eating wokerati
Helpful Moderator
NSC Patreon
Jul 23, 2003
33,809
Up and Coming Sunny Portslade
An interesting read.

A little disappointed in the option to relax lockdown by age bands, as I assume that it would younger people who would be released first, so that anyone in their 50s or 60s will be left at home for a lot longer.

Also a little worried about the app requirement given that most Government IT is at best useless.

It won't be the government developing the app. You'd hope they'd sub-contract it to someone decent, rather than the cheapest going, given how much other money has been spunked.
 


Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 11, 2003
73,363
West west west Sussex
It won't be the government developing the app. You'd hope they'd sub-contract it to someone decent, rather than the cheapest going, given how much other money has been spunked.

They were rather unlucky yesterday.

'£20 million' trending on Twitter.

I clicked to catch up on Captain Tom only to find half the posts concerned the £20 million the country spent on Chinese testing kits that didn't work!!!
 


PeterOut

Well-known member
Aug 16, 2016
1,231
"It might be this scenario" ... "It could be that one"..... "We don't have enough data yet" etc, etc, etc

Pure speculation at the moment, by journos, politicos and boffins.

Oh yes, and a good proportion of contributers to NSC :whistle:
 




Mellotron

I've asked for soup
Jul 2, 2008
31,722
Brighton
Roughly what you’d expect at this stage, although obviously a changing situation every day, so a fair chance this plan could be out of date in either direction within weeks.

However, I wonder how people who fall just above the over-70 line would feel - like my Dad. Pretty healthy, and I suspect he would rather “take his chances” if given the choice.
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,779
Lancing
There will be no pubs to come back to by late Summer
 


bhafc99

Well-known member
Oct 14, 2003
7,049
Dubai
I prefer Trump’s three stage plan, as revealed on one of the chat shows the other night:

Phase One
Reopen all golf courses

Phase Two
Reopen all hotels that rhyme with ‘Dump’

Phase Three
Reopen all fast food outlets that serve fried food in buckets

Now that’s an exit strategy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 






Stumpy Tim

Well-known member
I wonder where schools fit into this. In terms of getting back to normality, I think for many that is more important than restaurants and pubs - not for owners of, and workers at, pubs and restaurants of course
 


vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
27,866
I was just going to move this to the sub-forum and then I saw who posted it and read the opening paragraph...….

I played poker online with a group of mates last night and one of them has a daughter who works in a big West End theatre. He said she's been told that she can't reasonably expect to go back to work before the end of October at the earliest. If anything this leaked timeline looks very optimistic.

I'd fully expect close human contact in enclosed buildings such as theatres and cinema's and music gigs will be the last things to return to any sort of normality. One contaminated person in a cinema for a couple of hours could infect dozens. And yes, somehow the government has to work out what an " acceptable " ( absolutely horrifying ) level of fatalities would be to balance with getting the economy moving again.
 


Uncle Spielberg

Well-known member
NSC Patreon
Jul 6, 2003
42,779
Lancing
The death toll for years and decades will be huge after this virus is done, due to poverty, mental health issues, suicide, poor health, poor nhs as no money left. Not sure we are on the right track with this but will go along with it, well we have no choice. Expect to be under house arrest until late June at the earliest. Can't see any spectator football until 21/22 season starts
 






Papa Lazarou

Living in a De Zerbi wonderland
Jul 7, 2003
18,834
Worthing
"Part of the reason is that it is now believed fewer people have contracted the virus than the experts expected"

Doesn't that contradict some studies that think more people have had it than thought and herd immunity etc?

The failure to test in this country means we're all in the dark on this. As it say, nothing can happen until we have massively increased our testing numbers.
 



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