If no vaccine or treatment for 5 years

blue-shifted · Apr 16, 2020

If we knew we had to live much like we are now for the next 5 years. Ie schools, public spaces and offices closed, government paying wages etc, would you support either of the following views?

1) We isolate as long as we need to save £500k+ lives in the UK and 10s of millions worldwide
2) We have to let the virus go through the population and accept the massive loss of life to get back to normality

Now it maybe there is some partly viable middle option involving contact tracing or to isolate the elderly, but which is your option closest to? Which would you regard as the least worst?

Five years sounds a long time, but usually it's much longer to create a vaccine. It could be that scaling up to 7bn doses would take years. It may also be that no viable vaccine can ever be produced. So it's a bad scenario, but not implausible.

RossyG · Apr 16, 2020

I think I spot an aberrant £ in that post. :smile:

We’d have to go with option two and hope for herd immunity and/or a milder mutation. It’s the lesser of the two evils by a country mile.

Surf's Up · Apr 16, 2020

Try this article in the Guardian today -

No matter how you crunch the numbers, this pandemic is only just getting started

William Hanage
Professor of the Evolution and Epidemiology of Infectious Disease - Harvard.

Simster · Apr 16, 2020

It would be about the NHS managing the load so I suppose the solution might be to massively ramp up health care spending whilst accepting a sort of partial lock-down that halves the number of people out an about in normal circumstances, with no public gatherings at all of over 500 people.

doogie004 · Apr 16, 2020

Thought we were supposed to be protecting the old and vulnerable this time around ? That seems to b working out .... not .

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sparkie · Apr 16, 2020

I'm pretty certain there will be some level of medical mitigation of the virus within a few months.

That may not be a vaccine, but there will be some treatment breakthroughs - drugs to lessen the symptoms, or better practices determined for when and at what intensity or timeframe to give oxygen.

beorhthelm · Apr 16, 2020

at some point there comes the realisation that the isolation approach is causing as many deaths as without, so we'd lift restrictions having built up some capacity in health service, and let public take care to not spread too fast. if you're unwell you stay in, if you are suspectible to illness you stay in.

Swansman · Apr 16, 2020

Five years.. from what I've read most viruses mutate into something that are unlikely to kill their host, and humans would also becom more resilient to it. I dont think it would much of a problem in five years regardless what happens. The vaccine (if I turn off my tinfoil hat for a minute) is probably more about saving tenths (or hundreds..) of millions of lives during the upcoming next few years.

Bold Seagull · Apr 16, 2020

If you had enough testing, with current technology tracking (all be it with a huge loss of privacy) you could map where infected cases are and therefore isolating and avoidance could become a new normal.

If the world had had enough tests this pandemic would look very different. Going forward could be all about tests, anti-body tests and tracking.

Dick Swiveller · Apr 16, 2020

Well the sub forum was a 5 minute wonder.

Deleted member 22389 · Apr 16, 2020

Thank you very much China.

Lincoln Imp · Apr 16, 2020

Whichever way you look at it and given that a vaccine looks 12 months away it looks quite unlikely that any supporter over 70 will be allowed to watch the Albion until the season after next.

Harry Wilson's tackle · Apr 16, 2020

Christ, is this the official hysteria thread?

As I often say, if my old mum had had a cock she'd have been my dad :facepalm:

Mods can you move this to the Cova board, where it can sink into oblivion. Paging [MENTION=616]Guinness Boy[/MENTION]

Baldseagull · Apr 16, 2020

bashlsdir said:
Thank you very much China.

It may be that China's actions or inactions are in some way culpable for this pandemic, including possible engineering of this virus, but sooner or later there is going to be another one, and it could emerge from anywhere, though perhaps China is always the most likely starting point given the population size, and the range of animals considered food.

Guinness Boy · Apr 16, 2020

Harry Wilson's tackle said:
Christ, is this the official hysteria thread?

As I often say, if my old mum had had a cock she'd have been my dad

Mods can you move this to the Cova board, where it can sink into oblivion. Paging [MENTION=616]Guinness Boy[/MENTION]

Yes indeed. While there is a fair bit of cross over (because all our lives are basically CV19 all of the time right now), this sort of very specific type of thread really belongs in the sub-forum

jakarta · Apr 16, 2020

Simply and clearly cannot happen, this is not World War III and sadly even if we lost 50-100,000 people that is out of a population of 70 million and we need to carry on the normal business of the nation. A bit of me is enjoying sitting on my arse and going through You Tube Cricket matches but the sensible bit of me knows I have to get back out there and get some work done and invoices generated...

matumaini · Apr 16, 2020

Mustafa said:
We are, and have always been, relying on herd immunity.

We can't go on living like this obviously. This is just to keep the NHS numbers manageable.

Until there is a vaccine, vulnerable people will have to be very, very careful and we have to be careful to protect them when around them - the rest of us will return to almost normality, being extra mindful of hygiene of course - and self isolation as we have symptoms or get tested positive.

The anti-body test is the next big step, as we can be confirmed to be "clear" as we have had the virus and recovered, and essentially live life normally again.

With the idiots seen not adhering to social distancing, these are the type of individual to exactly not self isolate and selfishly carry on their daily activities infected large volumes if people unfortunately!

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blue-shifted · Apr 16, 2020

There are some general consensus's on this thread.

1) Blue-shifted should never have ignored the NSC sub forum etiquette. What a knob
2) Ultimately the herd immunity approach is going to have to take over from the hiding away even if that costs lives ......
3) However, we need to be looking to find ways to mitigate the effects of this as much as possible

Solid at the back · Apr 17, 2020

1) We isolate as long as we need to save £500k+ lives in the UK and 10s of millions worldwide

Is the correct answer. People need to make these sacrifices and stop moaning how bored they are. It's tough.

Deleted member 22389 · Apr 17, 2020

Solid at the back said:
1) We isolate as long as we need to save £500k+ lives in the UK and 10s of millions worldwide

Is the correct answer. People need to make these sacrifices and stop moaning how bored they are. It's tough.

If the government starts relaxing restrictions in three weeks time, I will still be social distancing as best I can, until we get a vaccine. It's going to be hard but it's possible we can return to some normality, as long as people don't get in your face and restrictions remain in places like supermarkets. How restaurants and other things will work, I do not know.

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