Over 60s (+same household) stay on lockdown. Everyone else out?

dwayne · Apr 15, 2020

Look at these figures which I'm taking as true....(I hope they are anyway!)

No. of deaths by Age Group in England till 5PM 14th April.
0-19 Yrs : 8
20 - 39 Yrs : 92
40 - 59 Yrs : 892
60 - 79 Yrs : 4655
80+ : 6009
Total : 11656 (yday 11005) - Increase by 651

Note - Figures provided above only for England region not for whole UK from hospitals only.

What if.... just the over 60s and people who live in same household stay on lockdown and everyone else are released ?! Herd immunity could be achieved reasonably quickly but would the NHS still be overwhelmed? Food for thought or a stupid idea?

Blue Valkyrie · Apr 15, 2020

It's certainly worth considering.

59 year olds could have a proper night out on the booze the night before their birthday and then have a long lockdown to get over the hangover.

Notters · Apr 15, 2020

Isn't that exactly what the government suggested originally (well, it was 70+) but got slammed for?

Would ~10,000 more deaths of under 60s be acceptable?

Swansman · Apr 15, 2020

dwayne said:
Look at these figures which I'm taking as true....(I hope they are anyway!)

No. of deaths by Age Group in England till 5PM 14th April.
0-19 Yrs : 8
20 - 39 Yrs : 92
40 - 59 Yrs : 892
60 - 79 Yrs : 4655
80+ : 6009
Total : 11656 (yday 11005) - Increase by 651

Note - Figures provided above only for England region not for whole UK from hospitals only.

What if.... just the over 60s and people who live in same household stay on lockdown and everyone else are released ?! Herd immunity could be achieved reasonably quickly but would the NHS still be overwhelmed? Food for thought or a stupid idea?

Its sort of what we're doing here.. people are generally (as long as they are careful) recommended to go on with their lives but the 70+ are sternly recommended (though no law) to stay the fck inside.

Its working out fairly well. Yes we have a lot of young people in intensive care but almost all of them survive. Average age of death here is 80 because its everywhere in the care homes, but the age group 60-75 are doing quite fine compared to elsewhere.

dwayne · Apr 15, 2020

Notters said:
Isn't that exactly what the government suggested originally (well, it was 70+) but got slammed for?

Would ~10,000 more deaths of under 60s be acceptable?

10k more deaths are gonna happen whether we like it or not. At some point we have to roll the dice. I doubt any government in the world wants to be the trailblazer for any original thought at this point in time though sadly.

(Fair play Sweden)

Notters · Apr 15, 2020

dwayne said:
10k more deaths are gonna happen whether we like it or not. At some point we have to roll the dice. I doubt any government in the world wants to be the trailblazer for any original thought at this point in time though sadly.

(Fair play Sweden)

I'm just talking about under 60s though, there will be many more over 60s.

Whether they will happen anyway depends upon the effectiveness of treatment and how soon a vaccine becomes available.

Swansman · Apr 15, 2020

dwayne said:
10k more deaths are gonna happen whether we like it or not. At some point we have to roll the dice. I doubt any government in the world wants to be the trailblazer for any original thought at this point in time though sadly.

(Fair play Sweden)

Not that our government got much to do with it. Every day there is a press conference at 14.00 lead by the state epidemiologist, the chief of the National Board of Health and Welfare and some representant from the Civil Contingencies Agency. They are running the show. Our PM comes around once a week and says "wash your hands please". Its a thin line between having "original thoughts" and "hiding from responsibility".

dwayne · Apr 15, 2020

Notters said:
I'm just talking about under 60s though, there will be many more over 60s.

Whether they will happen anyway depends upon the effectiveness of treatment and how soon a vaccine becomes available.

Yes but we will be coming out of lockdown in a few weeks anyway. And there are suggestions that more lockdowns could follow which is a major problem for the economy.

My theoretical model would mean no need for additional lockdowns for under 60s if cases started bubbling up again in smaller numbers as NHS could handle.

We surely still have to assume that more than 50% of the population will get covid at one point or another whatever we do.

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Kinky Gerbil · Apr 15, 2020

dwayne said:
Look at these figures which I'm taking as true....(I hope they are anyway!)

No. of deaths by Age Group in England till 5PM 14th April.
0-19 Yrs : 8
20 - 39 Yrs : 92
40 - 59 Yrs : 892
60 - 79 Yrs : 4655
80+ : 6009
Total : 11656 (yday 11005) - Increase by 651

Note - Figures provided above only for England region not for whole UK from hospitals only.

What if.... just the over 60s and people who live in same household stay on lockdown and everyone else are released ?! Herd immunity could be achieved reasonably quickly but would the NHS still be overwhelmed? Food for thought or a stupid idea?

Sorry for being lazy - do you know how many of the under 59 had underlying health issues

Rugrat · Apr 15, 2020

Notters said:
I'm just talking about under 60s though, there will be many more over 60s.

Whether they will happen anyway depends upon the effectiveness of treatment and how soon a vaccine becomes available.

Not sure of the maths to get to 1000

If we've had (round numbers) 100,000 reported cases to date how many of those under 60? Assume 50%?

So 1000 deaths from 50,000 (assume no more of the 50,000 die) that's 2%

Mild symptons and asymptomatic rate assume 3:1?

Assume 25% never get it?

So 10M cases needing testing/hospitalisation? Assume 70% under 60 (as over 60's are self isolating)

7M hospitalised x2% = 140,000

I'm assuming I've ballsed up here somehwere!!

dwayne · Apr 15, 2020

Rugrat said:
Not sure of the maths to get to 1000

If we've had (round numbers) 100,000 reported cases to date how many of those under 60? Assume 50%?

So 1000 deaths from 50,000 (assume no more of the 50,000 die) that's 2%

Mild symptons and asymptomatic rate assume 3:1?

Assume 25% never get it?

So 10M cases needing testing/hospitalisation? Assume 70% under 60 (as over 60's are self isolating)

7M hospitalised x2% = 140,000

I'm assuming I've ballsed up here somehwere!!

Interestingly 140k is the roughly the amount of hospital beds in the country I believe. And that 140k might be spread over a few months

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dwayne · Apr 15, 2020

Kinky Gerbils said:
Sorry for being lazy - do you know how many of the under 59 had underlying health issues

Not sure I copied from a verified tweet !

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beorhthelm · Apr 15, 2020

Kinky Gerbils said:
Sorry for being lazy - do you know how many of the under 59 had underlying health issues

numbers ive seen its nearly all, >90%. may have been non-UK data, cant refind easily.

schmunk · Apr 15, 2020

Blue Valkyrie said:
It's certainly worth considering.

59 year olds could have a proper night out on the booze the night before their birthday and then have a long lockdown to get over the hangover.

dazzer6666 · Apr 15, 2020

dwayne said:
Look at these figures which I'm taking as true....(I hope they are anyway!)

No. of deaths by Age Group in England till 5PM 14th April.
0-19 Yrs : 8
20 - 39 Yrs : 92
40 - 59 Yrs : 892
60 - 79 Yrs : 4655
80+ : 6009
Total : 11656 (yday 11005) - Increase by 651

Note - Figures provided above only for England region not for whole UK from hospitals only.

What if.... just the over 60s and people who live in same household stay on lockdown and everyone else are released ?! Herd immunity could be achieved reasonably quickly but would the NHS still be overwhelmed? Food for thought or a stupid idea?

Not stupid - think this is partly what will drive the gradual release of lockdown in various stages (not in order necessarily) :

-schools and colleges to open (limited risk)
-open shops (with distancing being managed how most of the supermarkets are now initially)
-Over 60s (then reduce to over 70s) remain locked down for a while longer
-get people back to work asap (phased, and maybe slower in London to limit crowding on public transport etc)
-extend 'going outdoors' but still avoiding large gatherings etc (however there seems to be increasing evidence that the virus doesn't transmit very well outdoors)
-pubs, restaurants etc reopen but limit numbers to avoid crowding initially

etc

Thunder Bolt · Apr 15, 2020

Rugrat said:
Not sure of the maths to get to 1000

If we've had (round numbers) 100,000 reported cases to date how many of those under 60? Assume 50%?

So 1000 deaths from 50,000 (assume no more of the 50,000 die) that's 2%

Mild symptons and asymptomatic rate assume 3:1?

Assume 25% never get it?

So 10M cases needing testing/hospitalisation? Assume 70% under 60 (as over 60's are self isolating)

7M hospitalised x2% = 140,000

I'm assuming I've ballsed up here somehwere!!

I know of at least two over 60s, who were retired, going back into work for the NHS, following the call for help.

Notters · Apr 15, 2020

Rugrat said:
Not sure of the maths to get to 1000

If we've had (round numbers) 100,000 reported cases to date how many of those under 60? Assume 50%?

So 1000 deaths from 50,000 (assume no more of the 50,000 die) that's 2%

Mild symptons and asymptomatic rate assume 3:1?

Assume 25% never get it?

So 10M cases needing testing/hospitalisation? Assume 70% under 60 (as over 60's are self isolating)

7M hospitalised x2% = 140,000

I'm assuming I've ballsed up here somehwere!!

I was doing much simpler maths than that - but likely to be error prone!

Assumptions:

-Circa 10% of population have had the virus already
-Everyone will get it.

Deaths to date of under 60s ~1000

Future deaths of under 60s ~1000 x ~10 = ~10,000

Notters · Apr 15, 2020

dazzer6666 said:
Not stupid - think this is partly what will drive the gradual release of lockdown in various stages (not in order necessarily) :

-schools and colleges to open (limited risk)
-open shops (with distancing being managed how most of the supermarkets are now initially)
-Over 60s (then reduce to over 70s) remain locked down for a while longer
-get people back to work asap (phased, and maybe slower in London to limit crowding on public transport etc)
-extend 'going outdoors' but still avoiding large gatherings etc (however there seems to be increasing evidence that the virus doesn't transmit very well outdoors)
-pubs, restaurants etc reopen but limit numbers to avoid crowding initially

etc

I would add, importantly - if you can work from home then keep working from home. I know of a lot of people happily doing this now who hadn't/couldn't/weren't allowed to before.

Rugrat · Apr 15, 2020

dwayne said:
Interestingly 140k is the roughly the amount of hospital beds in the country I believe. And that 140k might be spread over a few months

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140,000 deaths.

7M hospitalised sounds rather a lot too!!!

Would be interested to see someone with a bit more of a grasp of the current numbers and how they apply to the overall population having a go at this. I got ancy yesterday with the 'let's just got for herd immunity' approach but I would still like to see someone have a sensible go at the numbers

Rugrat · Apr 15, 2020

Notters said:
I was doing much simpler maths than that - but likely to be error prone!

Assumptions:

-Circa 10% of population have had the virus already
-Everyone will get it.

Deaths to date of under 60s ~1000

Future deaths of under 60s ~1000 x ~10 = ~10,000

Got it .... 6M had it so far would be good I've no idea if that's optimistic .. I doubt anyone does

If nobody else got it now I assume the 1000 deaths would increase to ??

So difficult but as I've said elsewhere I can't see anything other than going down this sort of route and hope that as many safety barriers can be put up to protect.

As for the wrinklies it's a case of locking down till the vaccine or effective treatment shows up and I suspect there's going to be more than a few false dawns in that regard

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