Number of Deaths

Tim Over Whelmed · Apr 6, 2020

Given that around 1,600 people die each day during this time of the year do we have any way of knowing what the overall death rate is at the moment? My point being is that every death is a tragedy for the family and friends of those involved but how many above the seasonal average are we? There is a difference between dying of corona virus and dying with corona virus and I wondered whether the figure is inflated to sensationalise as the media tends to do?

macky · Apr 6, 2020

Good question

KZNSeagull · Apr 6, 2020

Indeed. It is the only way to see how bad this pandemic actually is, but I have yet to hear these figures mentioned at all.

Baker lite · Apr 6, 2020

Plooks said:
Well you could look up the numbers and work it out. Or just try and cause more hysteria by posting on here like you did.

What?WHAT? What are you talking about? The op asks a perfectly reasonable question and sensible debate ensues, then you rock up and start talking out of your clacker valve.... again.
Christ on a bike..

Poojah · Apr 6, 2020

It is a good question, and whilst I don’t have the answer to it I’ve seen a couple of reports that suggest that roughly two thirds of deaths would have occurred anyway (even if they may have been slightly expedited by the virus). If we peak at around 1,000 deaths per day, that would equate to a little over 300 ‘extra deaths’.

That’s an increase of approximately 20% assuming your figure of 1,600 is correct. A figure, you might argue, not significant enough to shut down the global economy for. However, that would overlook the fact that this is the peak with a suppression strategy in place. Without it, due to a rapid spread and the subsequent impact on healthcare systems, I imagine you’d quickly end up with a figure many times multiple of the norm. And that’s not something any sensible, Western government could be seen to preside over.

helipilot · Apr 6, 2020

More people died in March 2019 and 2018 than they did in 2020. A good video source here;

https://news.sky.com/video/covid-19-how-do-figures-of-virus-deaths-compare-to-a-normal-year-11964813

Raphael Meade · Apr 6, 2020

I haven't done the maths but I would say that they are slightly above the seasonal average in NYC;

https://www.mediaite.com/news/nyc-c...-parks-to-bury-bodies-of-coronavirus-victims/

New York City council health committee chairman Mark D. Levine claimed on Monday that the city will soon start to bury coronavirus victims in mass graves at a city park due to shortages of morgue and funeral home space.

“NYC’s healthcare system is being pushed to the limit. And sadly, now so is the city’s system for managing our dead,” declared Levine in a series of Twitter posts, noting that New York City’s morgues, funeral homes, and cemeteries are having to deal with “the equivalent of an ongoing 9/11.”

“Every part of this system is now backed up,” he explained. “A typical hospital morgue might hold 15 bodies. Those are now all full. So OCME has sent out 80 refrigerated trailers to hospitals around the city. Each trailer can hold 100 bodies. These are now mostly full too. Some hospitals have had to add a 2nd or even a 3rd trailer.”

“Grieving families report calling as many as half a dozen funeral homes and finding none that can handle their deceased loved ones,” Levine claimed. “Cemeteries are not able to handle the number of burial requests and are turning most down… And still the number of bodies continues to increase. The freezers at OCME facilities in Manhattan and Brooklyn will soon be full. And then what?”

Levine then claimed that, “Soon we’ll start ‘temporary interment’. This likely will be done by using a NYC park for burials (yes you read that right). Trenches will be dug for 10 caskets in a line.”

Raphael Meade · Apr 6, 2020

And by no means a pop at OP as was a very polite question but just as an FYI in case you are unaware, that the 'difference between dying OF corona and WITH corona' is a narrative being pushed very heavily by extreme right wing media and Russian bots online, in support of Trump and his government to try and downplay the number of deaths occurring on his watch. Just in case you were not aware

Weststander · Apr 6, 2020

Good question.

Annual influenza viruses cause wildly different numbers of deaths from winter to winter, depending on the strains. The government produce very detailed reports that have carefully collated data. When this is all done, I suspect they’ll dichotomise numbers between the two diseases.

The BBC have covered the differing ways countries record COVID deaths, a dichotomy between:

France and the UK for example, where COVID19 mortality numbers include all deceased found to have had the disease, regardless of the cause of death; whereas

Sweden only publish numbers of deaths confirmed to be directly due to COVID19.

HitchinSeagull · Apr 6, 2020

They only count deaths in hospitals and clinics and there are currently quite regular call outs for covid related sudden deaths across North London. So you could argue the numbers given could be significantly lower than the real figures.

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Weststander · Apr 6, 2020

Raphael Meade said:
And by no means a pop at OP as was a very polite question but just as an FYI in case you are unaware, that the 'difference between dying OF corona and WITH corona' is a narrative being pushed very heavily by extreme right wing media and Russian bots online, in support of Trump and his government to try and downplay the number of deaths occurring on his watch. Just in case you were not aware

BBC radio calmly covered this last night without a politician in sight. Countries really are recording COVID19 deaths differently, they said making comparisons between nations difficult. That’s all.

Deportivo Seagull · Apr 6, 2020

Raphael Meade said:
And by no means a pop at OP as was a very polite question but just as an FYI in case you are unaware, that the 'difference between dying OF corona and WITH corona' is a narrative being pushed very heavily by extreme right wing media and Russian bots online, in support of Trump and his government to try and downplay the number of deaths occurring on his watch. Just in case you were not aware

Well it’s a question asked in the depor household.
If this had happened in 2018 and my mother had caught it she would have stood no chance. Seasonal flu would have finished her off. As it was cancer and shit that goes with it took her in the June. My father would have been touch and go. If it happened in 2019 then he would have certainly died after catching the virus. As it was he died in the July from pneumonia.
The point is that a dose of seasonal flu would have done them in. Hence why I took them to the doctors each autumn for the flu jab and if any of the family got flu like symptoms or even a heavy cold we would keep well away.
It’s unfortunately a valid question.

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RossyG · Apr 6, 2020

Apparently the guidelines say that any death where the victim has Covid can be put down as a C-9 death, so it’s a good question.

And the fact that only hospital deaths are recorded muddies the water even more.

Guinness Boy · Apr 6, 2020

Plooks said:
Well you could look up the numbers and work it out. Or just try and cause more hysteria by posting on here like you did.

Is this you?

Raphael Meade · Apr 6, 2020

Weststander said:
BBC radio calmly covered this last night without a politician in sight. Countries really are recording COVID19 deaths differently, they said making comparisons between nations difficult. That’s all.

Good to know, wasn't aware of that. I'm not uninterested in the thoughts on it at all or dismissing, just more curious that it's also the line a certain set of commentators are taking for whatever their agenda is.

Raphael Meade · Apr 6, 2020

Deportivo Seagull said:
Well it’s a question asked in the depor household.
If this had happened in 2018 and my mother had caught it she would have stood no chance. Seasonal flu would have finished her off. As it was cancer and shit that goes with it took her in the June. My father would have been touch and go. If it happened in 2019 then he would have certainly died after catching the virus. As it was he died in the July from pneumonia.
The point is that a dose of seasonal flu would have done them in. Hence why I took them to the doctors each autumn for the flu jab and if any of the family got flu like symptoms or even a heavy cold we would keep well away.
It’s unfortunately a valid question.

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Very fair point - and sorry to hear about what sounds like a very rough couple of years in your family

Weststander · Apr 6, 2020

Raphael Meade said:
Good to know, wasn't aware of that. I'm not uninterested in the thoughts on it at all or dismissing, just more curious that it's also the line a certain set of commentators are taking for whatever their agenda is.

I didn’t know about that. Sounds like Alt-Right loons in the USA, trying to detract from the deadly incompetence of their orange hero.

Raphael Meade · Apr 6, 2020

Weststander said:
I didn’t know about that. Sounds like Alt-Right loons in the USA, trying to detract from the deadly incompetence of their orange hero.

Yeah I think that's it. Honestly makes it hard to see if something really is valid/plausible when they jump on it, because they distort for their own ends so well. Bizarre time out here, that's for sure!

Weststander · Apr 6, 2020

RossyG said:
Apparently the guidelines say that any death where the victim has Covid can be put down as a C-9 death, so it’s a good question.

And the fact that only hospital deaths are recorded muddies the water even more.

The ONS and NHS do include non-hospital deaths in UK Covid19 mortality stats, but naturally it took longer for those numbers to come through. Comprehensively, they include those fatalities where death certificates state cause of death COVID19 or suspected COVID19.

France has done exactly the same, giving this spike in daily mortality numbers:
31 March - 509
1 April - 1,355
2 April - 1,120
3 April - 1,053
4 April - 518

Weststander · Apr 6, 2020

Raphael Meade said:
Yeah I think that's it. Honestly makes it hard to see if something really is valid/plausible when they jump on it, because they distort for their own ends so well. Bizarre time out here, that's for sure!

Their views sicken me, as does the power they now have in The States, Hungary and Russia, so I make a point of never coming across their bile. That’s includes :wanker:

’s Fox News.

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