China's reported coronavirus cases and deaths

bhafc99 · Apr 3, 2020

Wasn't there an incident at one point when the Chinese media briefly showed some figures that were HUGELY more than the 'official' data, but then this set was almost immediately replaced with another 'normal' low set?

Swift denials at the time that there were two different sets in existence (the 'real' and the 'released'), but I wondered then and I wonder even more now....

Triggaaar · Apr 3, 2020

Harry Wilson's tackle said:
Yes.

Well we agree there.

If you look at Spain the UK and Italy, roughly one death per ten cases. In China it is way different. The US data looks dodgy too.

Of course none of the figures are accurate, but there is a 'signal' among the noise. Huge outliers are dodgy by definition.

One of the most obvious outliers is Germany. Perhaps they have stricter rules on which cases can be classed as deaths 'due' to Covid-19, rather than deaths 'with' Covid-19. But they are also testing more people who haven't been hospitalised, so they're number of cases will be higher and their death rate lower, so I don't get the feeling they're lying.

What makes me suspicious of the data from China is, well, everything. None of it adds up.

Triggaaar · Apr 3, 2020

beorhthelm said:
3. they have much more relaxed regulation on theraphy use, have been quick to trial malaria, AIDs, other drugs to see if they help treat the serious cases.

But we would have learned what did and didn't work from their trials. Countries getting the virus after China (so, all of them) would have benefited from the lessons China learned.

GingerBeerMan · Apr 3, 2020

Harry Wilson's tackle said:
Yes.

If you look at Spain the UK and Italy, roughly one death per ten cases. In China it is way different. The US data looks dodgy too.

Of course none of the figures are accurate, but there is a 'signal' among the noise. Huge outliers are dodgy by definition.

US data isnt dodgy, they just have a greater capacity to treat the virus as they have a greater overall population. An easier way to think of it is as a % of total healthcare capacity. While it's <100%, deaths will rise slowly as people are kept alive in ICU, as is happening in most of the USA right now. Give it a few weeks and the capacity will hit 100% such as in Italy and death ratio will rise. Also consider testing rates among the general populace.

beorhthelm · Apr 3, 2020

Triggaaar said:
But we would have learned what did and didn't work from their trials. Countries getting the virus after China (so, all of them) would have benefited from the lessons China learned.

we learnt what would be good to trial, and set them in progress. those trials are still on going, while in China they can use them more immediatly.

CheeseRolls · Apr 3, 2020

Rather than try and rubbish the figures, I have been trying to justify them, at least in my own mind. I have no idea if this is right or wrong.

1 Population movement. Wuhan is a city of nearly 10 million people. If you split the population of China East West, the distribution is an amazing 94/6%. Wuhan is in the West, but is quite some way from the major coastal hubs. It is further from Wuhan to Shanghai than it is from Lands End to John O'Groats. It is likely to be far easier to isolate even a large city like this, than say any major UK population centre.

2 The Chinese learnt a lot from SARS and applied it.

3 If you look at the infection spread across China. It is quite possible that infections are not coming from Wuhan, but from outside China into some of the more International facing cities.

Bakero · Apr 3, 2020

CheeseRolls said:
Rather than try and rubbish the figures, I have been trying to justify them, at least in my own mind. I have no idea if this is right or wrong.

1 Population movement. Wuhan is a city of nearly 10 million people. If you split the population of China East West, the distribution is an amazing 94/6%. Wuhan is in the West, but is quite some way from the major coastal hubs. It is further from Wuhan to Shanghai than it is from Lands End to John O'Groats. It is likely to be far easier to isolate even a large city like this, than say any major UK population centre.

2 The Chinese learnt a lot from SARS and applied it.

3 If you look at the infection spread across China. It is quite possible that infections are not coming from Wuhan, but from outside China into some of the more International facing cities.

To add to that, lockdown in Hubei began when China as a whole had less than 600 confirmed cases.

Bakero · Apr 3, 2020

Beijing steps up campaign in western media-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...estern-media-campaign-over-coronavirus-crisis

Harry Wilson's tackle · Apr 3, 2020

beorhthelm said:
so Germany another outlier, wider variance that China. we believe UK testing is under reporting cases too.

actually looking at the worldometers numbers, the world number is 5% of cases lead to death, so maybe Italy, France, Spain are off trend?

Yes. Just looked at the numbers again. Probably reasonable to say that differences in time from start of infection, differences in ways of reporting and differences in 'other things' explain the differences just as well as the Chinese making up the numbers. I am as guilty as anyone for seeing patterns that may not be there, and speculating on reasons for differences (between nations) that may not be 'real'. Probably best to focus on (and avoid) things that are false (like expecting bear bile or whatever shit Trump has recently promoted, praying, sticking a paper bag over your head, to effect a cure).

Harry Wilson's tackle · Apr 3, 2020

Triggaaar said:
Well we agree there.

One of the most obvious outliers is Germany. Perhaps they have stricter rules on which cases can be classed as deaths 'due' to Covid-19, rather than deaths 'with' Covid-19. But they are also testing more people who haven't been hospitalised, so they're number of cases will be higher and their death rate lower, so I don't get the feeling they're lying.

What makes me suspicious of the data from China is, well, everything. None of it adds up.

I Skyped a colleage in China 2 weeks ago, and am in more recent touch with someone else who lives there (Chinese mother, English father); they both think the disease is under control and the numbers we have been given are realistic.

Having looked again at the numbers, the only thing I can accept is the numbers are getting bigger everywhere.

The Wizard · Apr 3, 2020

In my mind it doesn’t even need to be questioned it’s totally and utterly made up numbers. Residents of Wuhan have said that the death toll there is at least 10 times what has been announced officially and perhaps more. Wuhan district in the large probably have a good amount of herd immunity now but the rest of China seeing 31 new cases out of 1.4B population seems impossibly low to me, even with total lockdown in some parts.

RossyG · Apr 3, 2020

The Chinese government is a corrupt dictatorship that disappears people who speak out. I wouldn’t trust them on anything.

Machiavelli · Apr 3, 2020

beorhthelm said:
while people have questioned the numbers since day 1, there's no evidence to support the suspicions. they have reported consistent numbers, and took extreme measures to limit spread.

if they are misreporting, we would also have to question all the models based on their numbers, and the policy responce.

Well, at least one person is speaking sense on this thread. I'd add in there that, on the whole, WHO have praised China's response.

Machiavelli · Apr 3, 2020

Harry Wilson's tackle said:
Yes.

If you look at Spain the UK and Italy, roughly one death per ten cases. In China it is way different. The US data looks dodgy too.

Of course none of the figures are accurate, but there is a 'signal' among the noise. Huge outliers are dodgy by definition.

Your later posts are better. The case numbers globally are extremely unreliable. They're not case numbers, they're confirmed case numbers, and the number of confirmed cases is dependent on the wildly different volume of testing that's going on in various countries. Death counts, on the other hand, that's a far more reliable indicator -- although by no means something that can be used to compare across national boundaries (eg China has a high proportion of smokers, leading to more fatalities; Italy's demographic is skewed towards the elderly, who are far more susceptible to the virus).

Harry Wilson's tackle · Apr 3, 2020

Machiavelli said:
Your later posts are better. The case numbers globally are extremely unreliable. They're not case numbers, they're confirmed case numbers, and the number of confirmed cases is dependent on the wildly different volume of testing that's going on in various countries. Death counts, on the other hand, that's a far more reliable indicator -- although by no means something that can be used to compare across national boundaries (eg China has a high proportion of smokers, leading to more fatalities; Italy's demographic is skewed towards the elderly, who are far more susceptible to the virus).

Indeed. I keep forgetting to give my head a wobble, then I remember.

Solid at the back · Apr 3, 2020

I think after China's initial response and subsequent misreporting of cases and in particular deaths that it is time for the rest of the world to cut them off until something drastic changes.

We wouldn't be seeing cases around the globe had they be honest. For a start if they were honest about case numbers the rest of the world would of taken it more seriously then what it did initially and been able to act sooner. The world could of been proactive and not reactive which is what we're seeing now.

China reported death numbers consistently at 2.1%

Barham's tash · Apr 3, 2020

Yes it was from the internet so probably sloblock but rumours circulating that 2.1m mobile users in China haven’t used their devices since end January....

RossyG · Apr 3, 2020

Machiavelli said:
Well, at least one person is speaking sense on this thread. I'd add in there that, on the whole, WHO have praised China's response.

The WHO have just parroted what China have told them.

The same WHO said in February that there was no need to stop flights coming from Wuhan and that wearing masks did nothing.

CheeseRolls · Apr 3, 2020

Solid at the back said:
I think after China's initial response and subsequent misreporting of cases and in particular deaths that it is time for the rest of the world to cut them off until something drastic changes.

We wouldn't be seeing cases around the globe had they be honest. For a start if they were honest about case numbers the rest of the world would of taken it more seriously then what it did initially and been able to act sooner. The world could of been proactive and not reactive which is what we're seeing now.

China reported death numbers consistently at 2.1%

If you haven't done already please take a read through this piece.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/03/why-weren-t-we-ready

Harry Lambert is a brilliant young journalist and has been very careful here, not to apportion political blame. However it is clear the UK government(s) were aware of the likelihood and impact of a pandemic and the lack of critical infrastructure in such an event, but chose not to plan for what was deemed the highest level national threat.

In this context it doesn't really matter where this one came from, or where the next one will emerge from, lessons need to be learnt rather than just looking to blame Johnny Foreigner.

colonies man · Apr 3, 2020

Triggaaar said:
Why is that?

Corrupt and dishonest in ways that a civilised society should be horrified by.,Australian business should hold their heads in shame.The world should treat China as a pariah.

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