Fascinating story from The Spectator

Albion Dan · Mar 26, 2020

Another piece that gives good balance that maybe we are overestimating the true effect of this virus:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

Coldeanseagull · Mar 26, 2020

Maybe I didn't read it correctly, but it seemed very contradictory in the way it came across. I also seemed to get a 'don't worry, it's not serious' message from it?

Albion Dan · Mar 26, 2020

What I took from it is that it is very possible that data interpretation is making this appear much worse than it may be. Germany’s death rate compared to others would suggest this is true.

Soton Seagull · Mar 26, 2020

Interesting article and must admit reflects many of my own thoughts in the subject; albeit not fashionable to say it is anything below bubonic plague in seriousness !

Clearly it is serious but serious enpough to effectivey shut down the entire world? Ultra cautious approach, which will likely pay off, but at what other costs? Certainly not advocating returning to normal quickly and hope some people learn lessons and keep washing their hands afterwards.

Odd times in which we live.

AmexRuislip · Mar 26, 2020

Albion Dan said:
Another piece that gives good balance that maybe we are overestimating the true effect of this virus:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

Cheers for posting, interesting read :thumbsup:

dazzer6666 · Mar 26, 2020

Seems to be more and more reports pointing in this direction. Will be fascinating to see results from the antibody testing start to come in as may help clarify things.

BLOCK F · Mar 26, 2020

Very interesting, as was the other article comparing mortality rates in Italy and Germany.

Mellotron · Mar 26, 2020

dazzer6666 said:
Seems to be more and more reports pointing in this direction. Will be fascinating to see results from the antibody testing start to come in as may help clarify things.

This. Here’s hoping for a much better understanding of this virus within the next week or two.

Guinness Boy · Mar 26, 2020

Good article.

A lot of that happens to agree with some of my later posts on the main thread. However, in particular, they have said the following far better than I could have, and it is something I 100% hope (and actually believe) Boris is considering:

The moral debate is not lives vs money. It is lives vs lives. It will take months, perhaps years, if ever, before we can assess the wider implications of what we are doing. The damage to children’s education, the excess suicides, the increase in mental health problems, the taking away of resources from other health problems that we were dealing with effectively. Those who need medical help now but won’t seek it, or might not be offered it. And what about the effects on food production and global commerce, that will have unquantifiable consequences for people of all ages, perhaps especially in developing economies?

There. I've now agreed with Boris and The Spectator in the space of a week. I think I need a (non Covid related) lie down :facepalm:

vegster · Mar 26, 2020

Albion Dan said:
Another piece that gives good balance that maybe we are overestimating the true effect of this virus:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

Some valid points there. It is still early days and yes, the death rate is strangely variable. I think the two concerning things the article did not pick up on are the speed and spread of the infection and the high percentage of hospitalisation and need for respiratory assistance. Yes ordinary 'flu kills many thousands each year but we never get SO many cases of 'flu at the same time. I think I might have had 'flu 2-3 times in my life but even in close confinement at schools we don't see the same numbers of infections as we do from Covid-19.

Secondly, the damage it seems to do to the lungs seems far worse requiring respirators that we simply don't have. If Covid-19 did not spread so rapidly and we had a few thousand more respirators available we might not even be talking about this. However, we are where we are and drastic action had to be taken.

doogie004 · Mar 26, 2020

Albion Dan said:
What I took from it is that it is very possible that data interpretation is making this appear much worse than it may be. Germany’s death rate compared to others would suggest this is true.

USA Italy Spain death rate suggests not

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Machiavelli · Mar 26, 2020

Although interesting, I remain unconvinced. In the penultimate paragraph, the author indicates that government policy is pursued without concrete evidence of excess harm. That is the case, but it's based upon projections of excess harm which, in turn, is founded on cutting-edge mathematical modelling. It's also the case that Covid-19 is far more virulent and transmissible than influenza, and we have no immunisation for it.
It's worth bearing in mind, that this well-argued piece begins with the claim that pathologists, etc don't deal in certainty, they deal in doubt. This is just a decent sceptical argument, but is not one to base a policy around in my view. What is a far more legitimate topic of debate is the one that the likes of Matthew Parris, Max Hastings, etc are raising about the costs of the policy that will follow and the toll that it will take on the younger generation(s).

Guinness Boy · Mar 26, 2020

Plooks said:
The thing it normal government operation IS lives V money.

No it isn't. That's just your biased perception of it.

Westdene Seagull · Mar 26, 2020

Plooks said:
In what way? How many times to we hear things like "we can not afford free education" "we can't afford to pay nurses more" etc. That is not perception, that is real.

Firstly we DO have free education. I really don't believe any government of the UK - of any colour - seriously goes, "Well, it doesn't matter if a few extra thousand people die, just as long as we save a few quid". And that is entirely different to having a budget to try and run a service efficiently. You constantly complain about how the previous generations have left your generation in financial turmoil - well, like it or not, all this money the government is currently spending to fight this virus on behalf of ALL generations, and that includes yours, is going to be paid for by your generation and even those that aren't yet born.

RossyG · Mar 26, 2020

Plooks said:
In what way? How many times to we hear things like "we can not afford free education" "we can't afford to pay nurses more" etc. That is not perception, that is real.

Not getting a grant to read Media Studies at Portsmouth isn’t life or death, though, is it?

And nurses should get more money, but they’re not dying because they’re not.

Guinness Boy · Mar 26, 2020

Plooks said:
In what way? How many times to we hear things like "we can not afford free education" "we can't afford to pay nurses more" etc. That is not perception, that is real.

Education is free from the age of 5 - 18 plus there are lots of free nursery places. So I've never heard it. I suspect there will be a big NHS pay rise at the end of this but money isn't why NHS staff do it.

dazzer6666 · Mar 26, 2020

Guinness Boy said:
Education is free from the age of 5 - 18 plus there are lots of free nursery places. So I've never heard it. I suspect there will be a big NHS pay rise at the end of this but money isn't why NHS staff do it.

Chuckled at that - it was an ongoing joke when daughter was Uni for 4 years doing her BSc Nursing.......................fully knowing that after being in the job 15-20 years she'd still probably be paid less than a cocky graduate entrant with a lesser degree 2 years into a banking career in the City.

Westdene Seagull · Mar 26, 2020

Plooks said:
OK Boomer. If you think so.

So exactly how much did you pay for your 5-18 year old education then Village Idiot ? What ever it was you should probably ask for a refund.

Guinness Boy · Mar 26, 2020

Plooks said:
Say to miss the point. Some education is free. All education is not and certainly not the part that educated the NHS workers!

So they didn't go to state school then?

And I call bullshit on you having never heard "we cant afford it". Lol. Pretty much all the tories were trotting that out at the last election so do not lie.

It's up to you to provide the quotes where they did. You're the "prosecution".

Guinness Boy · Mar 26, 2020

Plooks said:
What has state school got to do with it!? I said the part that educated them to work for the NHS! Or do you think you can become a Dr from just GCSEs and a few A-levels!?

So you do not recall this as just ONE examhttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-nurse-magic-money-tree-bbcqt-question-time-pay-rise-eight-years-election-latest-a7770576.html

Without school qualifications you can't go to Uni you THICKIT.

You said "Pretty much all the tories were trotting that out at the last election so do not lie."

The link you provided was NOT from the last election. May wasn't standing as PM

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Fascinating story from The Spectator

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