The End Game - Coronavirus

I’ve heard varying predictions about the length of time we’ll be in lockdown or even how long we’ll have to social distance. No one really knows currently. But when will we be back to normal, if ever?

Countries is SE Asia who have tracked, controlled and reduced infections seem to be the ones that will get back to normality first.

I think we could see the following sort of Covid protocol happening in China or Hong Kong very soon:

1. No infections for 14 days.
2. Last person recovers.
3. 14 day quarantine introduced to re-enter Country.
4. Internal lockdown removed.
5. Country removes 14 day quarantine for individuals travelling from other Countries based on last person recovering (14 days previous) in that Country.
6. Entire populations are vaccinated against the current Covid-19 strain.
7. If Covid-20 emerges from mutation due to the huge numbers of global infections.
8. All countries in the World close borders on announcement of Covid-20 and it’s contained in one Country.
9. Covid-20 Country closes borders.
10. Covid-20 Country locks down and introduces mass testing to track, reduce and control infection immediately.
Go to 1.

That is essentially it, yes, but I don't see how many countries can manage 1 & 2, and without those there's no end in sight.

China may manage it (maybe they already have) due to the extremely draconian lockdown measures they've taken but it still remains to be seen how practical it is to quarantine every new arrival, unless the state does it forcibly. But it only takes one person for the whole thing to start again.

I'm not sure there is any practical end game until a vaccine is available at scale. In the meantime improved therapeutics may provide significant assistance in dealing with those who experience severe symptoms, which should greatly assist stretched health services.

It should be noted that most viruses of this type tend to mutate into milder forms, so a mutation could well be a good thing.

I don't think we have enough information at the moment. If some of the initial studies, which suggest it's actually less deadly but a lot more infectious than thought, prove true, it could be over relatively quickly. A lot of the measures and preparations are based on a worst case scenario.

RossyG said:

It should be noted that most viruses of this type tend to mutate into milder forms, so a mutation could well be a good thing.

Click to expand...

That is very interesting.

My mutation idea was based on ‘Spanish Flu’ from the beginning of the last century that was more deadly during the 2nd spike but I’ve also heard Covid-19 is a form of common cold so could get a lot weaker as you say.

A very good article here on how we move forward. Well worth a read, even though it will take a little time...

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56