[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

highflyer · Jul 31, 2020

atomised said:
True. To keep it on the good news side cases figures dont seem to reflect serious cases and I cling to the hope the slight uptick is down to the targeted testing in these areas which is leading to the local measures we are currently seeing

The covid symptom study is indicating that overall, aross the UK, things have been pretty steady (and low) for a few weeks (up to the 26th July) now, but with a lot of variation at local level. So it certainly looks like the increased positive tests is likely down to more targeted testing and that identification of problems and strong early action at more local level is going to be the best way to keep things under control.

(Slightly less good news alert)

It also indicates you might want to take a bit more care if out and about in Lewes.

atomised · Jul 31, 2020

highflyer said:
The covid symptom study is indicating that overall, aross the UK, things have been pretty steady (and low) for a few weeks (up to the 26th July) now, but with a lot of variation at local level. So it certainly looks like the increased positive tests is likely down to more targeted testing and that identification of problems and strong early action at more local level is going to be the best way to keep things under control.

(Slightly less good news alert)

It also indicates you might want to take a bit more care if out and about in Lewes.

Is there a local spike in lewes then? I've not looked at those figures

Mellotron · Jul 31, 2020

highflyer said:
The covid symptom study is indicating that overall, aross the UK, things have been pretty steady (and low) for a few weeks (up to the 26th July) now, but with a lot of variation at local level. So it certainly looks like the increased positive tests is likely down to more targeted testing and that identification of problems and strong early action at more local level is going to be the best way to keep things under control.

(Slightly less good news alert)

It also indicates you might want to take a bit more care if out and about in Lewes.

I was a little confused by Johnson's comments today that in my mind do not tie up:

1. The R is between 0.8 and 0.9 nationally.
2. The prevalence of COVID-19 in our nation is currently increasing.

Both of these statements can't be true at the same time. Anyone?

atomised · Jul 31, 2020

Mellotron said:
I was a little confused by Johnson's comments today that in my mind do not tie up:

1. The R is between 0.8 and 0.9 nationally.
2. The prevalence of COVID-19 in our nation is currently increasing.

Both of these statements can't be true at the same time. Anyone?

That made no sense to me.either

Deleted member 2719 · Jul 31, 2020

Mellotron said:
I was a little confused by Johnson's comments today that in my mind do not tie up:

1. The R is between 0.8 and 0.9 nationally.
2. The prevalence of COVID-19 in our nation is currently increasing.

Both of these statements can't be true at the same time. Anyone?

*Good News Thread Alert*

I would be a good moderator. :wink:

A1X · Jul 31, 2020

Mellotron said:
I was a little confused by Johnson's comments today that in my mind do not tie up:

1. The R is between 0.8 and 0.9 nationally.
2. The prevalence of COVID-19 in our nation is currently increasing.

Both of these statements can't be true at the same time. Anyone?

I find it odd how the unlocking was all happening when the R rate was stated as being between 0.7 and 0.8, but now things are being locked back up at 0.8 to 0.9,

Mellotron · Jul 31, 2020

Mouldy Boots said:
*Good News Thread Alert*

I would be a good moderator.

I know - was hoping it would just be a quick aside with hopefully a positive answer.

Also, I hate pretty much every other Coronavirus thread. Ha.

Mellotron · Jul 31, 2020

A1X said:
I find it odd how the unlocking was all happening when the R rate was stated as being between 0.7 and 0.8, but now things are being locked back up at 0.8 to 0.9,

Perhaps it's that it's at 0.8-0.9, but if this continue in current direction of travel the Government fear it would tip over 1 again?

Which is a bit of a complex message for the masses, so I can understand if that's why it has been simplified (to something which doesn't quite make sense, but hey).

studio150 · Jul 31, 2020

Mellotron said:
I was a little confused by Johnson's comments today that in my mind do not tie up:

1. The R is between 0.8 and 0.9 nationally.
2. The prevalence of COVID-19 in our nation is currently increasing.

Both of these statements can't be true at the same time. Anyone?

There is a lag between the recorded R rate and the actual R rate.
So although the R rate is stated as between 0.8 and 0.9 given the increasing numbers it is probably just over 1, and the official R rate in a weeks or so time will reflect that.

Mellotron · Jul 31, 2020

studio150 said:
There is a lag between the recorded R rate and the actual R rate.
So although the R rate is stated as between 0.8 and 0.9 given the increasing numbers it is probably just over 1, and the official R rate in a weeks or so time will reflect that.

Understood - however, they shouldn't state that the R is at 0.8-0.9 now then, if it is incorrect and misleading.

Yoda · Jul 31, 2020

atomised said:
Is there a local spike in lewes then? I've not looked at those figures

Hopefully I've done the table correctly

Local Authority Area	June Cases (Confirmed)	July Cases to date (Confirmed)
Adur	13	6
Arun	23	10
Brighton & Hove	99	46
Chichester	11	14
Crawley	32	41
Eastbourne	54	62
Hastings	7	7
Horsham	51	11
Lewes	35	20
Mid Sussex	30	18
Rother	19	10
Wealdon	55	34
Worthing	26	17

A1X · Jul 31, 2020

Yoda said:
Hopefully I've done the table correctly

Local Authority Area June Cases (Confirmed) July Cases to date (Confirmed)
Adur 13 6
Arun 23 10
Brighton & Hove 99 46
Chichester 11 14
Crawley 32 41
Eastbourne 54 62
Hastings 7 7
Horsham 51 11
Lewes 35 20
Mid Sussex 30 18
Rother 19 10
Wealdon 55 34
Worthing 26 17

Bad news if it's rising in Eastbourne given the demographics

highflyer · Jul 31, 2020

atomised said:
Is there a local spike in lewes then? I've not looked at those figures

Well, it's bounced up a bit on that system, but given how it works I'd assume at a very local level a small increase in people reporting symptoms could lead to a bounce in predicted cases quite easily. And it is just predicted based on people self reporting, not actual, positve tests. All of which is to say I definitely am not trying to raise any concerns. Even if accurate, numbers are still very low, it's just relative to even lower areas around it.

Wherever we are, it is up to all of us to be careful, and do whatever we can to KEEP numbers low, rather than waiting for it to go up and then getting into another lockdown.

Green Cross Code Man · Jul 31, 2020

A1X said:
Bad news if it's rising in Eastbourne given the demographics

I am not sure Eastbourne is still bouncing up, I would imagine the opposite given there were no covid cases in all of East Sussex for a couple of days a couple of days ago.

Postman Pat · Aug 1, 2020

[Tweet]1289532357259665408[/tweet]

Despite the levelling off and recent increases in cases we have seen death numbers in hospital continue to fall.

blue-shifted · Aug 1, 2020

Postman Pat said:
[Tweet]1289532357259665408[/tweet]

Despite the levelling off and recent increases in cases we have seen death numbers in hospital continue to fall.

Some much needed balance to a few days of doom and gloom Postie. Excellent news

vegster · Aug 1, 2020

blue-shifted said:
Some much needed balance to a few days of doom and gloom Postie. Excellent news

Lets just hope this figure is about the same in 10 days to a fortnights time.

The Wizard · Aug 1, 2020

51 deaths in the last 5 days reported from in NHS hospitals, which is the lowest number since before lockdown.

Absolutely bizarrely, in that same 5 days, PHE outside hospital have reported 370 deaths. It’s simply astonishing, 3 weeks since the review was ordered and still no resolution to this quite clear total nonsense, 7 times the amount of people are dying outside of hospital from COVID than in hospital? Bull***t.

blue-shifted · Aug 1, 2020

The Wizard said:
51 deaths in the last 5 days reported from in NHS hospitals, which is the lowest number since before lockdown.

Absolutely bizarrely, in that same 5 days, PHE outside hospital have reported 370 deaths. It’s simply astonishing, 3 weeks since the review was ordered and still no resolution to this quite clear total nonsense, 7 times the amount of people are dying outside of hospital from COVID than in hospital? Bull***t.

It's very hard to assess risk with the confusion around the number of deaths attributable to COVID.

essbee1 · Aug 1, 2020

Mellotron said:
I was a little confused by Johnson's comments today that in my mind do not tie up:

1. The R is between 0.8 and 0.9 nationally.
2. The prevalence of COVID-19 in our nation is currently increasing.

Both of these statements can't be true at the same time. Anyone?

More testing coupled with people being more careful.

In other words - we're finding more, but it is amongst groups of people who are generally
very careful and not spreading it.

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