The Coronavirus plan, Stan

Bozza · Mar 17, 2020

I think this is worth a thread of its own, such is the fast-moving nature of the main discussion thread.

This is the paper that the Imperial College team, who are advising UK government, released tonight and held a press conference for.

It is incredibly fascinating, and the level of detail of the modelling quite something.

It is well worth a read if you can spare a bit of time.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...tPDo9ngRtorb2GKDUNO4S-jGvWuTLCUk06aOfeoQIyddo

These graphs are key (the lower is an exploded version of the upper).

The red line is, essentially, NHS capacity.
The black line is the "do nothing and let it rip" approach.
The orange line is all the measures announced today.
The green line is all the measures announce today PLUS school closing.

From this you can see why school closures have not been implemented yet, but at the point the orange line keeps climbing towards NHS capacity, closing schools will then curb transmission and keep demands on the NHS below breaking point.

From there you can see things are "in control" for want of a better description, until such time a schools return then a second wave comes along and it all goes crazy.

The paper discusses using hospital admissions as an on and off switch for some measures, relaxing slightly when the NHS is going OK and reimposing again when things start to rise. How practical this could be is the problem, I guess but, presumably, from a society perspective it may be better than a lockdown that could run for a year or more.

beorhthelm · Mar 17, 2020

short version: closure and isolation just means it comes back later.

atomised · Mar 17, 2020

Thanks Bozza. Much clearer now

Harry Wilson's tackle · Mar 17, 2020

Thanks for posting [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION]

Swansman · Mar 17, 2020

When I wrote about "millions of dead" in the other thread and got waved off as a looney, this is what I meant:

"We would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the
US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on
mortality"

I think its safe to say the systems will be overwhelmed.

Everyone will be locked up - for a very long time. Its a matter of days. There is no other possible development.

jonny.rainbow · Mar 17, 2020

beorhthelm said:
short version: closure and isolation just means it comes back later.

Schools will be closing eventually anyway. That second spike will happen regardless.

The Camel · Mar 17, 2020

Why don't they leave it to parental choice whether children go to school or not?

I completely understand the argument that some children of emergency workers need to be cared for. And schools should be kept open for this reason.

But when the parents are able to look after the kids why force them to school?

vegster · Mar 17, 2020

[MENTION=37204]the[/MENTION]clamp posted a short video clip about this the other day, I think it was linked to The WashingtonPost, extreme distancing is the way yo go but, it does cost the economy more as the isolation time required is lengthy.

Fungus · Mar 17, 2020

It'll all be over by Christmas.

Horses Arse · Mar 17, 2020

The Camel said:
Why don't they leave it to parental choice whether children go to school or not?

I completely understand the argument that some children of emergency workers need to be cared for. And schools should be kept open for this reason.

But when the parents are able to look after the kids why force them to school?

They've done nothing, taken no action. Vague suggestions and no firm action. All due to liability and commercial issues no doubt.

Meanwhile the rest of the world (Trump and Johnson excluded of course) are doing something meaningful.

Absolutely no leadership at all.

Sent from my Pixel 4 using Tapatalk

Wrong-Direction · Mar 17, 2020

Horses Arse said:
They've done nothing, taken no action. Vague suggestions and no firm action. All due to liability and commercial issues no doubt.

Meanwhile the rest of the world (Trump and Johnson excluded of course) are doing something meaningful.

Absolutely no leadership at all.

Sent from my Pixel 4 using Tapatalk

What the hell are you talking about, Boris is doing a fantastic job, he cares about everyone dont you know [emoji849]

Sent from my SM-A600FN using Tapatalk

Psychobilly freakout · Mar 17, 2020

Bozza said:
I think this is worth a thread of its own, such is the fast-moving nature of the main discussion thread.

This is the paper that the Imperial College team, who are advising UK government, released tonight and held a press conference for.

It is incredibly fascinating, and the level of detail of the modelling quite something.

It is well worth a read if you can spare a bit of time.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...tPDo9ngRtorb2GKDUNO4S-jGvWuTLCUk06aOfeoQIyddo

These graphs are key (the lower is an exploded version of the upper).

View attachment 121099

The red line is, essentially, NHS capacity.
The black line is the "do nothing and let it rip" approach.
The orange line is all the measures announced today.
The green line is all the measures announce today PLUS school closing.

From this you can see why school closures have not been implemented yet, but at the point the orange line keeps climbing towards NHS capacity, closing schools will then curb transmission and keep demands on the NHS below breaking point.

From there you can see things are "in control" for want of a better description, until such time a schools return then a second wave comes along and it all goes crazy.

The paper discusses using hospital admissions as an on and off switch for some measures, relaxing slightly when the NHS is going OK and reimposing again when things start to rise. How practical this could be is the problem, I guess but, presumably, from a society perspective it may be better than a lockdown that could run for a year or more.

Well thanks for that, I’m in the mood for driving to beachy head now, knowing this is probably going to take a year to run it’s course.
Very depressing reading, the most freighting thing was at the end..
“ no public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time. How populations and societies will respond remains unclear”

I can see some social disorder, and more panic, oh Jebus.....
I feel so sad.

pb21 · Mar 17, 2020

So, we carry on like we are now, but in six months it rips up again regardless, then what. :down:

Edit: just read the link the blue section:

"shows the 5-month period in which these interventions are assumed to remain in place."

beorhthelm · Mar 17, 2020

Horses Arse said:
They've done nothing, taken no action. Vague suggestions and no firm action. All due to liability and commercial issues no doubt.

Meanwhile the rest of the world (Trump and Johnson excluded of course) are doing something meaningful.

Absolutely no leadership at all.

Sent from my Pixel 4 using Tapatalk

read the graph. the model predicts all those countries doing something meaningful will get to do so all over again. incidently, most those meaningful things have only been for a week, sometime days.

dwayne · Mar 17, 2020

Wow so depressing. From all this 4 month talk coming out I thought we might be able to have a normal summer before the inevitable kick off again in winter.

This just looks like it will go on for a year.

If this is to be believed I can't see countries opening their borders for another year either.

And god only knows what the employment rates and economy will look like in a year.

highflyer · Mar 17, 2020

pb21 said:
View attachment 121111

So, we carry on like we are now, but in six months it rips up again regardless, then what.

I don't think this is helpful, with all respect [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION]

This is modelling that is used to plan, yes, and what it shows is that we can flatten and push the curve out, keeping within capacity of the NHS for some time to come.

That graph is interesting, and it indicates the threat of the future outbreak, yes.

But nothing is inevitable. We will have ramped up, hugely, the capacity of the NHS to deal, specifically with this. And more importantly, there will be a lot more data to work with and far higher capacity for testing, as well as much higher awareness. South Korea has shown what can be done to manage this with a test and trace approach, and I suspect that will be heavily employed once we are over the first hump. We will be able to manage this, given more time and information.

The real future challenge is going to be dealing with the economic consequences, but we are more than robust enough as a country to handle that.

And for now, what is most imprtant is that we stay together and look after each other. I say that knowing it may sound trite, but feeling that, for once, it is absolutely the most important thing to say and to act on,

I am slightly more vulnerable than most, but not so much that I am seriously concerned for my own health. And as such I am going to pledge, personally, to do everything I can from here on to look after others, in whatever way I can. If we all do that, we'll be good.

Solid at the back · Mar 17, 2020

Swansman said:
When I wrote about "millions of dead" in the other thread and got waved off as a looney, this is what I meant:

"We would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the
US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on
mortality"

I think its safe to say the systems will be overwhelmed.

Everyone will be locked up - for a very long time. Its a matter of days. There is no other possible development.

And people on this board have been calling me mad for my suggestions of strict curfews, border closures and closure of non-essential business. But that's exactly is happening in Europe.

HalfaSeatOn · Mar 17, 2020

If I understand the chart correctly, the amber and green line are treated in isolation of each other. I'd be asking what are the implications and options when combining the two to get the line closer to NHS capacity.

jimhigham · Mar 17, 2020

Oxy McFloppie-Tish said:
It'll all be over by Christmas.

That's not an agenda, Brenda!

Flippant, I know but mandatory given the thread title. Carry on...

cjd · Mar 17, 2020

Interesting that only the UK is following this plan. I wonder why the rest of Europe and much of the world is so thick as shit to be doing things very differently. Don't they know that the **** Boris Johnson and Donald the Strumpet are the most intelligent in the world..?

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