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  1. #8331
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wizard View Post
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    Regardless of whether input data and such is correct, these charts should not be made public itís totally irresponsible to release death predictions to the public in my opinion, it is REAL peopleís lives they are turning into meaningless numbers and Iíve seen dozens of people being really upset by these computer generated predictions.

    In a situation so uncertain, itís not right and these predictions have been wildly off already.
    I disagree with you on this one, although there are ways in which this model is problematic (that HWT has best articulated). The reason I disagree is that there are official figures that are released on a daily basis that you could apply this reasoning to.

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    • #8332

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      Quote Originally Posted by :J) View Post
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      Those FT graphs are very misleading. The distance between 100 and 200 deaths is exactly the same as between 500 to 1000 (or for that matter between 1000 to 2000). The US curve should be heading practically vertically at the moment, but looks like it's only gradually rising.
      It's a logarithmic scale, so a straight line means cases are going up by multiples, e.g. doubling every 2, 3 or 4 days, rather than even steps of, say, 100 per day
    • #8333
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      Quote Originally Posted by Harry Wilson's tackle View Post
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      Just a quick update. I earlier made some negative comments about Patrick Vallance that were informed in part by my recollection that a colleague who worked for him some years ago thought he was a dick. I have just checked with my colleague who reports 'no, that was XXXXX. Patrick was excellent'. We are referring here to his management skills and his ability to design and analyse an experiment.

      I am happy to retract my previous skeptical comments, and happy also to add that the ringing endorsement from my colleague (who is a real expert on designing and anlysing experiments, and processing numerical biological data) means that Vallance will have the right skill set to provide the best advice.

      I am very pleased about all that.
      I wonder if we'll get any of the trolls on the Brexit, etc boards owning up to an error
    • #8334
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      0 Not allowed!
      Quote Originally Posted by :J) View Post
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      Those FT graphs are very misleading. The distance between 100 and 200 deaths is exactly the same as between 500 to 1000 (or for that matter between 1000 to 2000). The US curve should be heading practically vertically at the moment, but looks like it's only gradually rising.
      I hadn't noticed that, that is a particularly shit graph scale...
    • #8335
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      Sounds like we are stuck with this for quite a while...
      I had run 17 miles from Grayshades before the school leopard caught me.....

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    • #8336
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      Quote Originally Posted by :J) View Post
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      Those FT graphs are very misleading. The distance between 100 and 200 deaths is exactly the same as between 500 to 1000 (or for that matter between 1000 to 2000). The US curve should be heading practically vertically at the moment, but looks like it's only gradually rising.
      I think it's slightly more that it's easy to be misled by them, rather than they are misleading. I noticed that Johns Hopkins are also using this irregular scaling, which isn't too helpful with their figures. There must be a reason why they're using this scaling, but I can't offer it. What I can say is that these guys are at the cutting edge of mathematical modelling, so I'd trust them for using it (rather than insisting upon me being right in dismissing them as being 'misleading')
    • #8337
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      Quote Originally Posted by Robdinho View Post
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      It's a logarithmic scale, so a straight line means cases are going up by multiples, e.g. doubling every 2, 3 or 4 days, rather than even steps of, say, 100 per day
      Ah - thanks for the info @Robdinho. Maybe the FT should flag them as such, to avoid misinterpretation by cretins like yours truly? We hear a lot about flattening the curve, but I guess these type of graphs aren't designed to show that?
    • #8338
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      Quote Originally Posted by Is it PotG? View Post
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      Would that be added to the official death toll?
    • #8339

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      931 is a horrible number when we are still at least 2 or 3 days from the peak, but how much of it is just a catch up in deaths from the weekend being reported? That 400ish figure on Monday obviously wasn’t anywhere near accurate.
    • #8340

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      I hate these daily releases of numbers. I really don’t see what good they do for the general public.
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