Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

e77 · May 31, 2021

Problem is people have been burnt before with restrictions being lifted then seemingly talking us back to square one. However the Vaccine does change things extensively (to the best of my knowledge it does at least offer some resistance to the Indian variant).

My big concern is forcing people back to offices, possibly via public transport. Post June 21st it might be possible for ten of you to go round someone's house but that is your choice and you don't have to do it. If someone lives in Worthing and works in London they won't have any choice to get on a commuter train and basically go from full social distancing to none. Also face coverings will probably remain compulsory on public transport, if for no other reason to inspire confidence.

I suspect we can progress towards normality on June 21st but not all the way until we get herd immunity in September.

dsr-burnley · May 31, 2021

drew said:
What exactly are the arguments against then other than making money?

The argument against lockdown is that the government must not have an automatic right to prevent citizens from doing anything they want. The government can only ban things if there is a sound societal reason why they should. The argument in favour of lockdown needs winning again and again and again if lockdown is to remain; we must never get to a position where visiting neighbours, watching football, having coffee mornings is banned by default unless specifically approved by the government.

dsr-burnley · May 31, 2021

Poojah said:
I think this is the crux of the matter. Putting to one side the rights and the wrongs of the approach, we have a government which is incredibly reluctant to lock down until such a point it becomes inevitable that the NHS will be toppled if we don’t. I don’t see this being any different, and whilst Patrick Vallance’s comments of last March about infections in the community actually being ‘desirable’ look ill judged in hindsight, I can see how a rise in cases amongst healthy 12 - 30 years olds might potentially be a good thing at this stage.

The big variable right now, that we haven’t had at the outset of any of the previous ‘waves’, is such a high level of vaccinated people amongst our population. If we can unlock on the 21st without overloading the NHS, we will in my opinion. My gut feel is that the 21st might just come a little bit too soon - I can see there being pockets of the country whereby the Indian variant is just too prevalent and I’d be surprised to see more regional restrictions.

That said, the virus is very much facing an uphill battle against vaccinations and with a surge in doses expected in the coming weeks I would expect any postponement will be only around 4 - 8 weeks a the very most. I think anything resembling another lockdown is even more unlikely.

Don't write off 4-8 weeks as if it doesn't matter. For 100,000 people it is the last weeks of their lives. For over half a million people, it is their last summer.

Look at the numbers of people in hospital. It's not rising.

Guinness Boy · May 31, 2021

e77 said:
Problem is people have been burnt before with restrictions being lifted then seemingly talking us back to square one. However the Vaccine does change things extensively (to the best of my knowledge it does at least offer some resistance to the Indian variant).

My big concern is forcing people back to offices, possibly via public transport. Post June 21st it might be possible for ten of you to go round someone's house but that is your choice and you don't have to do it. If someone lives in Worthing and works in London they won't have any choice to get on a commuter train and basically go from full social distancing to none. Also face coverings will probably remain compulsory on public transport, if for no other reason to inspire confidence.

I suspect we can progress towards normality on June 21st but not all the way until we get herd immunity in September.

I've been back in the office in London one or two days a week for the last month. It's been great. Got loads more done, not been interrupted by people filling your day with pointless Teams calls and been out for beers and food after work more or less each time. Every time I've been in there are more people coming back who are utterly fed up with being locked in.

However, going back to a 5 day a week commute isn't for me, nor for many I work with and our company has been understanding in this respect. To date you have to book a day in the office into a calendar in advance and there are limits on how many can go in.

That seems like a completely sensible way to carry on in the medium term and, knowing my CEO, he will make his own decision for the benefit of his company and workforce.

None of this should, in any way, stop people enjoying life outside and going back to sports events when so many have at least one vaccination.

It's time for this to end.

Poojah · May 31, 2021

dsr-burnley said:
Don't write off 4-8 weeks as if it doesn't matter. For 100,000 people it is the last weeks of their lives. For over half a million people, it is their last summer.

Look at the numbers of people in hospital. It's not rising.

Sorry, I was trying to be reasonably positive there in response to talk of a devastating third wave, more lockdowns etc.

I’m just sensing increasing nervousness about the removal of all restrictions, which is a far bigger single leap taken than any to date. It’s not that 4-8 weeks ‘don’t matter’, I just think it’s the most likely outcome based on what we know today, and that generally speaking we’ve given precisely 4 weeks to assess the impact of all previous rounds of easing. I personally think 4 weeks is the more likely outcome, which would still mean we would be pretty much the first big nation on the planet to have had Covid in a meaningful way, to have returned to more or less normality on a national level. That would be no mean meat.

Certainly wasn’t trying to be pessimistic, quote to to contrary.

beorhthelm · May 31, 2021

drew said:
What exactly are the arguments against then other than making money?

you say that like its a bad thing and making money is a justification in itself. that people's livelihoods, it matters a lot.

The Clamp · May 31, 2021

It has to end now. We have vast, unused Nightingale wards to handle any surges (if there are enough nurses, I know Brexit and the tory government's abuse of NHS staff have put a huge dent in our nursing staff). But end it must.

e77 · May 31, 2021

Guinness Boy said:
I've been back in the office in London one or two days a week for the last month. It's been great. Got loads more done, not been interrupted by people filling your day with pointless Teams calls and been out for beers and food after work more or less each time. Every time I've been in there are more people coming back who are utterly fed up with being locked in.

However, going back to a 5 day a week commute isn't for me, nor for many I work with and our company has been understanding in this respect. To date you have to book a day in the office into a calendar in advance and there are limits on how many can go in.

That seems like a completely sensible way to carry on in the medium term and, knowing my CEO, he will make his own decision for the benefit of his company and workforce.

None of this should, in any way, stop people enjoying life outside and going back to sports events when so many have at least one vaccination.

It's time for this to end.

I went to an office for the first time since lockdown last week and to be fair it wasn't too bad. As it was in the Midlands I managed to avoid most of the commuter trains but one train I could have got had a warning that social distancing couldn't be observed as it was so busy and to use another train.

Problem is with no government influence every office in London will do what is best for them which generally means getting everyone to their desk for 0900. Now I would catch a train at Durrington station so generally there is a bit of room but by the time you get to Hove there would be standing room only and no opportunity for any form of social distancing, which will also make face covers useless as people will be so close.

Will employers make allowances for people getting a later train? Probably most of them but you know as well as I do not all of them and although most will settle for seeing people two or three times a week most will try and avoid going into the office on a Friday so it narrows the window to four days.

We can do practically everything on the 21st but I don't think we can entirely be back to normal.

Guinness Boy · May 31, 2021

e77 said:
We can do practically everything on the 21st but I don't think we can entirely be back to normal.

It's time to stop legislating lock in and start legislating "at your own risk" though. Perhaps a removal of restrictions but with protection in law for those who can't or don't want to go into a busy office on a busy train.

Legislation has been swift in the pandemic. This can't be too much to ask?

darkwolf666 · May 31, 2021

Guinness Boy said:
It's time to stop legislating lock in and start legislating "at your own risk" though. Perhaps a removal of restrictions but with protection in law for those who can't or don't want to go into a busy office on a busy train.

Legislation has been swift in the pandemic. This can't be too much to ask?

How do you do that, legislate for those that "don't feel comfortable"?

Can't see that going down well in the office!

e77 · May 31, 2021

Guinness Boy said:
It's time to stop legislating lock in and start legislating "at your own risk" though. Perhaps a removal of restrictions but with protection in law for those who can't or don't want to go into a busy office on a busy train.

Legislation has been swift in the pandemic. This can't be too much to ask?

I think something like that would be suitable. Would only need to be for a couple of months until everyone adult has been offered the second jab.

Guinness Boy · May 31, 2021

darkwolf666 said:
How do you do that, legislate for those that "don't feel comfortable"?

Can't see that going down well in the office!

By making a temporary change to employment law so you can't be sacked if you choose to work from home without it affecting your performance.

darkwolf666 · May 31, 2021

Guinness Boy said:
By making a temporary change to employment law so you can't be sacked if you choose to work from home without it affecting your performance.

Sensible, but good luck with that idea... Can you imagine all the office bitching and pressure on people to conform?

Billy the Fish · May 31, 2021

drew said:
What exactly are the arguments against then other than making money?

Our entire way of life revolves around making and then spending money, it's not a trivial thing.

But also getting back simple freedoms that have been removed, that is also a big deal. People are far too flippant about keeping the restrictions going. The scientists always want 100% certainly about everything before they make a decision, it's time to take a calculated risk and give people their lives back.

Yoda · May 31, 2021

darkwolf666 said:
Sensible, but good luck with that idea... Can you imagine all the office bitching and pressure on people to conform?

Then that come's down to Harassment and you are already protected by it under the Equality Act 2010.

Guinness Boy · May 31, 2021

darkwolf666 said:
Sensible, but good luck with that idea... Can you imagine all the office bitching and pressure on people to conform?

Some maybe. My new company has a guy who is diabetic with a wife who is immuno compromised. He's not been in to any of the in person meetings and everyone's completely supportive of him.

Sussexscots · May 31, 2021

Guinness Boy said:
I've been back in the office in London one or two days a week for the last month. It's been great. Got loads more done, not been interrupted by people filling your day with pointless Teams calls and been out for beers and food after work more or less each time. Every time I've been in there are more people coming back who are utterly fed up with being locked in.

However, going back to a 5 day a week commute isn't for me, nor for many I work with and our company has been understanding in this respect. To date you have to book a day in the office into a calendar in advance and there are limits on how many can go in.

That seems like a completely sensible way to carry on in the medium term and, knowing my CEO, he will make his own decision for the benefit of his company and workforce.

None of this should, in any way, stop people enjoying life outside and going back to sports events when so many have at least one vaccination.

It's time for this to end.

Absolutely this.

It's time to return this country to the presumption of freedom, remove restrictions and repeal the Coronavirus Act.

beorhthelm · May 31, 2021

e77 said:
...Problem is with no government influence every office in London will do what is best for them which generally means getting everyone to their desk for 0900. Now I would catch a train at Durrington station so generally there is a bit of room but by the time you get to Hove there would be standing room only and no opportunity for any form of social distancing, which will also make face covers useless as people will be so close.

Will employers make allowances for people getting a later train? Probably most of them but you know as well as I do not all of them and although most will settle for seeing people two or three times a week most will try and avoid going into the office on a Friday so it narrows the window to four days.

i think many employers will make allowances for people getting in at different times. the bigger problem i expect is employees not wanting to be in late, and returning late. its been my observation with fairly flexible employers before covid, that people prefer to come in and leave earlier, not later. younger one do like the in late and stay late, though tend to be in London.

Kinky Gerbil · May 31, 2021

Cancer patients who decided not to seek treatment during lockdown are now overwhelming emergency units at hospitals across the country, health chiefs have warned.

Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, said A&E units were struggling to cope with the number of people seeking emergency treatment for cancer, hip and knee operations and other serious ailments after deciding not to come forward for help during the pandemic.

It comes after the NHS put some treatments on hold to allow hospitals to cope with an influx of Covid patients and to protect vulnerable cancer patients from infection.

The move led to a huge rise in people missing urgent cancer checks over the past year, while some people have been left waiting two years for vital orthopaedic surgery.

Mr Hopson warned that the “striking” surge in non-Covid patients meant some hospital trusts were already at 97 per cent bed capacity and may struggle to cope with a rise in cases if the full lifting of restrictions goes ahead on June 21.

What a mess

But we shouldn’t be held hostage by the NHS, open the nightingales if need be.

Sussexscots · May 31, 2021

Kinky Gerbils said:
Cancer patients who decided not to seek treatment during lockdown are now overwhelming emergency units at hospitals across the country, health chiefs have warned.

Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, said A&E units were struggling to cope with the number of people seeking emergency treatment for cancer, hip and knee operations and other serious ailments after deciding not to come forward for help during the pandemic.

It comes after the NHS put some treatments on hold to allow hospitals to cope with an influx of Covid patients and to protect vulnerable cancer patients from infection.

The move led to a huge rise in people missing urgent cancer checks over the past year, while some people have been left waiting two years for vital orthopaedic surgery.

Mr Hopson warned that the “striking” surge in non-Covid patients meant some hospital trusts were already at 97 per cent bed capacity and may struggle to cope with a rise in cases if the full lifting of restrictions goes ahead on June 21.

What a mess

But we shouldn’t be held hostage by the NHS, open the nightingales if need be.

Your final paragraph is correct.

Hopson has been a howling jeremaiad all through this. A career bureaucrat who won't have missed a day's pay throughout the pandemic. He's right though that there needs to be a full debate on the trade offs.

It is simply unacceptable that all of our lives, jobs and freedoms be forever subject to, and contingent upon, the smooth operation of the NHS.

What we have now, however, is Government by soundbite and social media. The national broadcaster and much of the mainstream media provide an uncritical platform for the gloomy predictions and dire warnings of certain individuals, like Hopson and Professor Ferguson. Ministers, who should be demanding that advisors confine themselves to advising, appear to have lost the power of critical thought and balanced risk assessment. Parliament continually votes to allow Johnson and his cronies to rule by fiat. Any examination of the very real and destructive harms of lockdown is entirely absent.

Enough. On June 21, this needs to end. All of it and the Coronavirus Act must be repealed. if it doesn't, if those pressing for delay get their way, then the next round of 'scariants' will surely follow, restrictions will drag on into Autumn and Winter . And then it'll be time for another lockdown.

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