Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

dazzer6666 · Jan 31, 2021

The Wizard said:
Why anyone still tries to reason with Crodo still I don’t know, just let him get on with it, he said earlier in the thread he’s an obese gentleman with vulnerable family members, it’s not his fault he’s scared and I don’t mean this in a condescending way towards him I really don’t, but people who have been fed fear since day one from all angles can you really blame them for being nervous wrecks? These people are a product of what the world has become, I genuinely feel sympathy for the guy alongside finding his posts fairly amusing as they do read as though they are being posted by someone living in a nuclear bunker.

Everyone has their own reasons and mind, he’s certainly not alone judging by social media, there are millions out there who don’t seem to comprehend that COVID isn’t this ruthless killer of all ages, as the chart I showed earlier in the thread proved, over 60’s account for 92% of deaths, but honestly, is it these peoples faults? Maybe ignorance for some but for many it’s just what is drummed into them every day.

Fair point but it’s also worth trying to reason with those who are (quite legitimately) very worried.......has to be some kind of balance to some of the scaremongering stuff the media seem to want to bombard us with. Hopefully as things progress over the next few weeks and the bad numbers continue to tumble people will start to feel a bit more positive.

dsr-burnley · Jan 31, 2021

Billy the Fish said:
Exactly what I thought when I read @crodo's link.

We've already lived through the scenario that they're modeling.

Last year restrictions were lifted in the summer and there were very few deaths. When their model predicts 1000 deaths in the summer how do they not instantly think "our model might be a bit wrong".

Very difficult to take Ferguson's mob seriously, have they ever been right about anything

Back in October, on October 31st in fact, the government produced statistics estimating deaths for the previous day as about 900. The actual total was 237. They were unable even to predict the day before's results, which ought to have cast severe doubts on their ability to predict the future's. I suspect this comes from the same school.

I really can't get the figures. The worst we had post-Christmas, with schools and workplaces active and with Christmas visits, was 1,250 deaths per day (rolling average). What these people are saying is that if 85% of the adult UK population is vaccinated by August and the vaccine reduces transmission by 60%, we will have 2,000 deaths per day in September. How can that make sense?

dazzer6666 · Jan 31, 2021

dsr-burnley said:
Back in October, on October 31st in fact, the government produced statistics estimating deaths for the previous day as about 900. The actual total was 237. They were unable even to predict the day before's results, which ought to have cast severe doubts on their ability to predict the future's. I suspect this comes from the same school.

I really can't get the figures. The worst we had post-Christmas, with schools and workplaces active and with Christmas visits, was 1,250 deaths per day (rolling average). What these people are saying is that if 85% of the adult UK population is vaccinated by August and the vaccine reduces transmission by 60%, we will have 2,000 deaths per day in September. How can that make sense?

It's bizarre - it seems as though they're basically assuming (modelling) all of those unvaccinated, and those for whom the vaccine is 'not fully effective' end up in hospital or dead. Nothing points to this being the likely outcome. Not serious illnesses so far as a % of infections, not vaccine efficacy (even on a single dose). Nothing. Looks like scaremongering of the highest order to me.

Thunder Bolt · Jan 31, 2021

Captain Tom is in hospital with Covid pneumonia.

Friends who have been working from home, and only going to the supermarket have caught it. They are recovering but have been quite ill.

darkwolf666 · Jan 31, 2021

dazzer6666 said:
Fair point but it’s also worth trying to reason with those who are (quite legitimately) very worried.......has to be some kind of balance to some of the scaremongering stuff the media seem to want to bombard us with. Hopefully as things progress over the next few weeks and the bad numbers continue to tumble people will start to feel a bit more positive.

The wife and I no longer watch the news, it appeared each channel was trying to outdo each other with the bad news stories...

We are both very worried about our futures, and that of our little nuclear family, and will continue to isolate, even when the wife finally gets her vaccination - that’s the advice from her oncology unit.

Basically until they can crunch some numbers for those with blood cancer we are in limbo - so yes, some people are still scared of going before their time!

Thunder Bolt · Feb 1, 2021

The South African variant has been found in Surrey despite the positive contacts not having travelled there.

[tweet]1356213209062137857[/tweet]

crodonilson · Feb 1, 2021

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/summer-plans-coronavirus-experts

Several leading epidemiologists mapped out what Summer will look like. Encouragingly whilst it will be nowhere near what was deemed a normal summer pre 2020 it should be much like last year where we will be allowed to mix in small groups with social distancing outdoors and take holidays within the UK.

Kinky Gerbil · Feb 1, 2021

crodonilson said:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/summer-plans-coronavirus-experts

Several leading epidemiologists mapped out what Summer will look like. Encouragingly whilst it will be nowhere near what was deemed a normal summer pre 2020 it should be much like last year where we will be allowed to mix in small groups with social distancing outdoors and take holidays within the UK.

I’m very interested to see how the public react to this all if cases are low/vaccines work etc

How many people will just ignore it?

A1X · Feb 1, 2021

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dazzer6666 · Feb 1, 2021

Kinky Gerbils said:
I’m very interested to see how the public react to this all if cases are low/vaccines work etc

How many people will just ignore it?

Don't think it'll be an issue if cases are low and the vaccines are shown to be working.....................can foresee problems with compliance if we're in some kind of 'inconclusive' space though..........

The narrative does seem to be shifting away from the relentlessly negative now though with 'Boris Johnson 'optimistic' about people's summer holiday prospects'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55890224

As we start to ease back through the tiers in a few weeks, each one will seem like a big slice of freedom - just need to be a bit patient. A pub beer garden with a pint and a 'substantial meal' on a warm April evening is on the cards I reckon.

loz · Feb 1, 2021

Kinky Gerbils said:
I’m very interested to see how the public react to this all if cases are low/vaccines work etc

How many people will just ignore it?

Well last summer it took about 2 days before our local was just as normal despite all the signage, so I would think if the virus is at the same level as last July / August it will be ignored.

I am not saying that is a good or bad thing BTW.

Kinky Gerbil · Feb 1, 2021

A1X said:
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USA wise, Cali has had the strictest lockdown.

Only just lifted the stay at home order

dsr-burnley · Feb 1, 2021

crodonilson said:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/summer-plans-coronavirus-experts

Several leading epidemiologists mapped out what Summer will look like. Encouragingly whilst it will be nowhere near what was deemed a normal summer pre 2020 it should be much like last year where we will be allowed to mix in small groups with social distancing outdoors and take holidays within the UK.

I wouldn't agree with your choice of word "encouraging", because I see this forecast as discouraging. This is a bare minimum ambition.

Healthy people under 60 had a 1 in 1,000 chance of dying if they caught coronavirus. But treatments have improved, so that makes it say 1 in 2,000. And if the vaccine is 90% successful as predicted, that means the risk of death is down to 1 in 20,000; but they say it reduces the severity of illness so let's make it 1 in 40,000. (And that's before we factor in the 60% estimated reduction in transmissibility.)

Is that enough to make people want to stop at home? Of course not. Yes, some people with irrational fears might incline to stop in, but the odds on being killed in a motor accident are about that and very few people stop at home for fear of being knocked down. So what they have to persuade people is that if they go out and life life as normal - not "new normal", but normal - they are going to cause large scale deaths in other people. And if the vaccine works, that won't be happening, so people won;t be persuaded.

crodonilson · Feb 1, 2021

dsr-burnley said:
I wouldn't agree with your choice of word "encouraging", because I see this forecast as discouraging. This is a bare minimum ambition.

Healthy people under 60 had a 1 in 1,000 chance of dying if they caught coronavirus. But treatments have improved, so that makes it say 1 in 2,000. And if the vaccine is 90% successful as predicted, that means the risk of death is down to 1 in 20,000; but they say it reduces the severity of illness so let's make it 1 in 40,000. (And that's before we factor in the 60% estimated reduction in transmissibility.)

Is that enough to make people want to stop at home? Of course not. Yes, some people with irrational fears might incline to stop in, but the odds on being killed in a motor accident are about that and very few people stop at home for fear of being knocked down. So what they have to persuade people is that if they go out and life life as normal - not "new normal", but normal - they are going to cause large scale deaths in other people. And if the vaccine works, that won't be happening, so people won;t be persuaded.

If only it were all that simple. Firstly the assumptions you make are on practically everyone getting a vaccine, through circumstance and personal choice many people will not take the vaccine which will still leave a lot of vulnerable people. Also there is so much virus still in circulation if we open the floodgates and let everyone live in old normality the cases will soar, this will lead at some point to vaccine escape from the virus and we'll be back to square one if the virus stops being nearly as effective. We already have a UK strain which is up to 70% more transmissible and a South African strain which the current vaccines are going to be less effective against which according to what we've heard today is in community transmission here. We must keep measures over the summer when many of us will have nil protection to avoid cases soaring again which will inevitably lead to more cases, more illnesses, more long covid, and more deaths in the vulnerable.

e77 · Feb 1, 2021

dsr-burnley said:
I wouldn't agree with your choice of word "encouraging", because I see this forecast as discouraging. This is a bare minimum ambition.

Healthy people under 60 had a 1 in 1,000 chance of dying if they caught coronavirus. But treatments have improved, so that makes it say 1 in 2,000. And if the vaccine is 90% successful as predicted, that means the risk of death is down to 1 in 20,000; but they say it reduces the severity of illness so let's make it 1 in 40,000. (And that's before we factor in the 60% estimated reduction in transmissibility.)

Is that enough to make people want to stop at home? Of course not. Yes, some people with irrational fears might incline to stop in, but the odds on being killed in a motor accident are about that and very few people stop at home for fear of being knocked down. So what they have to persuade people is that if they go out and life life as normal - not "new normal", but normal - they are going to cause large scale deaths in other people. And if the vaccine works, that won't be happening, so people won;t be persuaded.

I can't verify your numbers but i do agree we will come out of this quicker than some people think once we have vaccine coverage.

Butch Willykins · Feb 1, 2021

crodonilson said:
If only it were all that simple. Firstly the assumptions you make are on practically everyone getting a vaccine, through circumstance and personal choice many people will not take the vaccine which will still leave a lot of vulnerable people. Also there is so much virus still in circulation if we open the floodgates and let everyone live in old normality the cases will soar, this will lead at some point to vaccine escape from the virus and we'll be back to square one if the virus stops being nearly as effective. We already have a UK strain which is up to 70% more transmissible and a South African strain which the current vaccines are going to be less effective against which according to what we've heard today is in community transmission here. We must keep measures over the summer when many of us will have nil protection to avoid cases soaring again which will inevitably lead to more cases, more illnesses, more long covid, and more deaths in the vulnerable.

You can lock yourself away for as long as you like. But the British public won’t put up with it much longer. Once the majority have been vaccinated then good luck getting people to adhere to any kind of social distancing. It’s going to be a long hot BBQ summer with the economy rocketing back into life. And we’re gonna win the Euros.

dsr-burnley · Feb 1, 2021

As it stands, half a million grandparents have died of non-coronavirus causes without being able to legally hug their grandchildren in the past year. If this goes on for another year, that will bring the number up to a million.

Approx 800,000 people in this country had dementia at the start of this lot. The standard treatment for dementia is to get out and about, to have a routine, to meet people, to talk to people. Not to sit at home and watch TV. Hundreds of thousands of people are loses their minds faster than they should, and many more are speeding into dementia who should not be.

We know that people are not getting diagnosed with cancer because they are too frightened to go to hospital or the doctor can't see the symptoms by phone or they don't want to trouble the doctor because he is busy.

We know that many people are taking much less exercise and damaging their health in that way.

We know that people are losing jobs and losing income and poverty is spreading and taxes will rise and service will be cut, and people will suffer and will die because of that.

We know that neglected and abused children are not getting the attention they need.

All these are bad things resulting, one way and another, from coronavirus and its treatment. Sooner or later we are going to have to weigh up the two sets of minuses in the balance and we will have to conclude that while coronavirus is bad, the other is worse. We don't sit at home in fear of a flu mutation, or of any of the other coronavirus mutations whether affecting human or animals, and I don't think we need to sit at home purely for fear that this one might mutate.

crodonilson · Feb 1, 2021

dsr-burnley said:
We don't sit at home in fear of a flu mutation, or of any of the other coronavirus mutations whether affecting human or animals, and I don't think we need to sit at home purely for fear that this one might mutate.

That's because flu does mutate we know that and particularly nasty strains might kill 20,000 in a year with our old ways of living(still too many and hopefully with a new normal we will come to live with we'll never get that many again). Covid 19 will have killed the best part of 150,000 by the time March rolls around and that's with 3 lockdowns and strict social distancing measures over the rest of the year. Had we not locked down or done the restrictions we have then I think it's fair to say that number would have been 4 or 5 times higher and the NHS would have been overwhelmed, and unless you just let people die at home it would have had an even more profound impact in our health services with practically no other support able to take place.

The virus is as dangerous as ever, with new mutations now in community transmission more dangerous than ever, now is not the time to take the foot off the gas unless we want to see that 150,000 double again in the next 6-12 months.

Kinky Gerbil · Feb 1, 2021

Just catching up on Hancock, anyone else think he was rowing back on the fear?

dazzer6666 · Feb 1, 2021

Kinky Gerbils said:
Just catching up on Hancock, anyone else think he was rowing back on the fear?

Yep.......there definitely seems to have been a subtle shift in the messaging in the last 24 hours (Boris was also publicly positive about prospects for summer holidays).

The combination of success of the vacc rollout (plus presumably confidence in further supplies being available to complete the programme quickly), getting all adults vaccinated, quite rapidly falling infection numbers, hospitalisation numbers and now even death rates showing declining signs will mean gradually removing restrictions will be starting as soon as practicable.

Starting to soften the message a few weeks out makes sense - it’s really tricky balance for the Gov in terms of anything too positive leading to mass non-compliance with lockdown, but equally ‘lockdown fatigue’ and stream of negative commentary potentially having a similar effect.

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