beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,312
fair point, i was thinking of low uptake of TB and other vaccines here.
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
fair point, i was thinking of low uptake of TB and other vaccines here.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,194
When assessing the daily tests we use a 7 day rolling average which removes virtually all the daily variability. That rolling average suggests that cases halved between January 10th and January 27th, but the number of people being tested has barely changed.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
I like statistics. But where we have large scale real world data competing with a small scale statistical statistical model, then large scale real world data is more accurate.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,194
It is more accurate at assessing the total number of cases.
Here's what the Imperial study says. Between 6th and 22nd January, the number of cases was about the same as it was between the 23rd December and 5th January.
And here's what the daily totals say. On 21st December there were 30,000 cases. This rose steadily to 60,000 cases by 6th January. Then it fell steadily back to 38,000 on 22nd January. Conclusion: the number of cases in the first fortnight was very similar to the number in the second fortnight, but there was a sharp rise for the first two weeks followed by a sharp fall for the second two weeks.
The Imperial study comes to the same conclusion as the daily case study. That the number of cases in each two week period was similar. The Imperial study has no opinion on whether or not cases are rising and falling throughout the period; any attempt by Whitty or yourself to use it to judge that cases are not significantly falling, is wrong and (in Whitty's case) bogus.
crodonilson
He/Him
So according to your figures you really think the virus has shrunk by some 29% in the last weeks ave number of cases and the previous weeks. At that rate we'll be down to less than 5,000 daily cases by the end of Feb, you seriously think it is shrinking that quickly??
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,194
Yes, I really think that the virus is shrinking that quickly and furthermore I believe that counting the number of people who are ill is a good way of assessing trends in how many people are ill.
I do not have an opinion on how many daily cases there will be by the end of February because I am not a fortune teller.
crodonilson
He/Him
You shouldn't have to be a fortune teller, the countriy is in a loose lockdown and has been for several weeks now, the situation of the lockdown will not change between now and Febraury so the R rate and relative shrinking or growing should remain stable as it did in the first lockdown. So if you think the virus is shrinking by 30% week on week currently it's not hard to extrapolate that forward by only 4 weeks to have a rough idea of the daily positive cases. Lets see how many weeks it continues to shrink by 30% if the daily weekly rolling average is as accurate as you think and a better barometer than the imperial survey.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,194
If you believe that the variability of the spread of this virus is determined only by lockdown, then I fear you haven't being paying proper attention. There are lots of other variables.
I see that the EU are now going to 'inspect' all deliveries of the vaccine outside of their territories, with a view to authorising or refusing the deliveries. Do we know if this will include the components required to create new vaccines? If it does, do we know which components or chemicals required for the AZ vaccine are not produced in the UK? I can see this becoming a big political row in which there will be plenty of losers but not many winners.
The Wizard
Well-known member
- Jul 2, 2009
- 18,383
Be careful by the way, lots of fake vaccination phishing scam emails going about. Had this earlier today from the ‘NHS’ upon further inspection it’s from a hotmail email address and it’s asking you to click a link, luckily enough Im savvy with this kind of thing but as I have, make sure any older family members are aware of these going about, if the email doesn’t show an NHS number or your full name, it’s a scam.
Sussexscots
Fed up with trains. Sick of the rain.
Timely reminder that there are no depths to which these Fuds won't stoop.
I hate scammers with a passion. They should have their bollocks boiled in Lead.
Medwayseagull
JCB
Including the women ?
John Edmunds on sky reinforcing his view (sages?) that they will be pushing for lockdown till the vast majority are vaccinated
The Wizard
Well-known member
- Jul 2, 2009
- 18,383
Whilst he’s sitting at home, money rolling in and the rest of us lose our jobs & livelihoods.
Once the 15m are vaccinated by mid February, the age groups and vulnerable that equal 90%+ of fatalities there is simply no excuse for not easing restrictions slowly, obviously a few weeks after that so say early March, whilst continuing the vaccination program.
They’ll probably have discovered the new Pluto variant by then that renders vaccines useless or something.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,194
I don't think anyone (bar the conspiracy theorists) is saying that we must release lockdown in March no matter what. But there are people, like John Edmunds, saying that regardless of the current position, even if there are very few cases, hardly anyone in hospital, and no deaths at all - here's hoping! - that even in that case, we must not release lockdown.
Why?
Why?
There is no logical reason..........and no way the government will maintain lockdown in it’s current form. They’ll start easing restrictions as soon as it’s viable. Removing ALL restrictions may be some way off, but once we get to a point where very small numbers are going into hospital there won’t be any reason to maintain tight restrictions.
The Wizard
Well-known member
- Jul 2, 2009
- 18,383
There are around 15 million people over 60 in the uk so if the 15m target to immunise them is reached by mid February there can be no argument against lockdown being eased
The statistics from NHS England are stark, around 5000 of the deaths have been people under 60, compared to 64000 over 60. This doesn’t take into account that many of the people in the under 60 age group who have died will have had major underlying health issues, as well as the fact 40-59 is a massive age group with vastly different outcomes at the bottom and top end of it.
The statistics from NHS England are stark, around 5000 of the deaths have been people under 60, compared to 64000 over 60. This doesn’t take into account that many of the people in the under 60 age group who have died will have had major underlying health issues, as well as the fact 40-59 is a massive age group with vastly different outcomes at the bottom and top end of it.
Absolutely correct IMO. The only considerations will be the time lag (allowing those vaccinated to be protected - so we'll only see real movement in restrictions 3 weeks after 'Mr/Mrs 15 millionth vaccine customer' has been jabbed I suspect), that the NHS is back under control (hospitalisations are steadily falling now, not quite at the rate of infections yet but again there will be a 3 week time lag between the charts) and the data showing that a single jab has had the hoped-for dramatic effect on
the numbers of people getting seriously ill (everything so far points to this being the case but proof will be needed)
If those things align (and signs at the moment are positive), there is no way the Government will be able to resist the easing of restrictions, including from their own MPs. I still think we're looking at mid March for the first real step (assuming the mid-Feb vacc target is reached). Also not to forget all the time restrictions are being eased, we'll be vaccinating 3m+ people per week in progressively younger age groups.
Perfidious Albion
Well-known member
If anyone is feeling p####d off with lock down, being unable to go out, to visit , to be normal....just take a look at the BBCs short series "The Diary of Ann Frank" (it would now be on I Player) .
That was really a lock down ,in horrible circumstances. For me, it put things into perspective.
That was really a lock down ,in horrible circumstances. For me, it put things into perspective.