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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread







Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
57,900
hassocks
Patel about to announce quarantine in hotels from arrivals from South America, South Africa and Portugal.

Well the result of that will be no more flights from those places and an xfold increase in arrivals from Madrid etc

There has been no flights from South America for months, its a headline maker
 


crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
13,533
Lyme Regis
Be interesting to see how this goes with backbenchers

Think this was pretty much what they asked for?? A release from lockdown beginning 3 weeks after all of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated. All seems too soon for me, the return of schools will almostr certainly push the R rate back up to and over 1. By 8th March even optimistically we will still be likely to have 10,000+ official cases and many thousands more undetected. The pressure on the NHS will be severe, hopsitalisations and daths will only go down slowly from where they are now and will still be well above the peak of the first wave. I think this may mean the price for getting schools open will be pushing back the release of other restrictions, meeting family and friends, opening of non essential retail and finally opening of hospitality until into the Summer.
 


Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
57,900
hassocks
Think this was pretty much what they asked for?? A release from lockdown beginning 3 weeks after all of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated. All seems too soon for me, the return of schools will almostr certainly push the R rate back up to and over 1. By 8th March even optimistically we will still be likely to have 10,000+ official cases and many thousands more undetected. The pressure on the NHS will be severe, hopsitalisations and daths will only go down slowly from where they are now and will still be well above the peak of the first wave. I think this may mean the price for getting schools open will be pushing back the release of other restrictions, meeting family and friends, opening of non essential retail and finally opening of hospitality until into the Summer.

They were saying feb?
 


Sussexscots

Fed up with trains. Sick of the rain.
He may well be right, but pretty much everyone else that has looked at the data he has disagreed with his latest prediction in one way or another.

The point is, he broke lockdown before Cummings was reported to - He was pushing for it and broke it - no one should be talking to him and giving him a platform

Ferguson lost any moral authority he may have had when he decided the lockdown he was responsible in pushing for didn't apply to him when he wanted to pop out to shag his mistress.

His previous modelling predictions have been wildly inaccurate.

He shamelessly briefed/leaked to Peston the supposed increased lethality of the new variant before Johnson spoke on TV last Friday. Peston, of course, tweeted that, and so the media are in foment before Johnson even speaks.

The national broadcaster should not be giving a platform to his lobbying and self promotion.
 




crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
13,533
Lyme Regis
They were saying feb?

According to the Bolton News....

The Covid Recovery Group – made up of lockdown-sceptic Conservative MPs – has said the Government should begin unlocking from early March, when vaccinations for the most vulnerable have taken effect.
 


Rugrat

Well-known member
Mar 13, 2011
10,215
Seaford
There has been no flights from South America for months, its a headline maker

I assumed that too, but it still tickled me.

Many of us were saying such (some) measures should have been put in place when it kicked off in the Italian Alps, not sure the adage 'better late than never' applies to this one :facepalm:
 


Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
57,900
hassocks
Rumours the 22 countries announced by Boris Johnson may actually be the 30 on the existing "travel ban" list They are: South America Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela Central America Panama



Europe Portugal ncl Madeira and the Azores) Southern Africa Angola, Botswana, Democratic Congo, Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe. Islands: Cape Verde, Seychelles, Mauritius But I stress it may just be a Mauritius rumour


About 4 of these places have direct flights lol
 




beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,310
Rumours the 22 countries announced by Boris Johnson may actually be the 30 on the existing "travel ban" list They are: South America Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela Central America Panama



Europe Portugal ncl Madeira and the Azores) Southern Africa Angola, Botswana, Democratic Congo, Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe. Islands: Cape Verde, Seychelles, Mauritius But I stress it may just be a Mauritius rumour


About 4 of these places have direct flights lol

should be from all destinations or dont bother, right?
 








Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
57,900
hassocks
Rumours the 22 countries announced by Boris Johnson may actually be the 30 on the existing "travel ban" list They are: South America Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela Central America Panama



Europe Portugal ncl Madeira and the Azores) Southern Africa Angola, Botswana, Democratic Congo, Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe. Islands: Cape Verde, Seychelles, Mauritius But I stress it may just be a Mauritius rumour


About 4 of these places have direct flights lol

Just to add to this

Tanzania has no covid/Mauritius has a 7 day average of 2
 


ManOfSussex

We wunt be druv
Apr 11, 2016
14,748
Rape of Hastings, Sussex
Just to add to this

Tanzania has no covid/

According to the Tanzanian Government they are. It's amazing - they haven't reported a single death or a case since June last year and their President was rambling on yesterday about vaccinations saying: "You should stand firm. Vaccinations are dangerous. If the white man was able to come up with vaccinations, he should have found a vaccination for Aids by now; he would have found a vaccination of tuberculosis by now; he would have found a vaccination for malaria by now; he would have found a vaccination for cancer by now."

Elsewhere, 2 travellers into Denmark just last week from Tanzania tested positive for the South African variant, on top of 1 coming into Ghana as well.................
 
Last edited:


crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
13,533
Lyme Regis
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55827497

This survey is more accurate and flies in the face of the rapid decline in positive tests reported daily. It appears as Chris Whitty said that the lockdown measures are just about holding firm against the virus and we're not yet being breached but cases are hardly going down at all and any lifting of lockdown including opening schools will open the floodgates to another wave of covid, one our hopsitals can ill afford. On this evidence don't see any chance schools opening or any unlocking in March unless the vaccinations really start bringing infection rates down and quite quickly from now.
 




Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
57,900
hassocks
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55827497

This survey is more accurate and flies in the face of the rapid decline in positive tests reported daily. It appears as Chris Whitty said that the lockdown measures are just about holding firm against the virus and we're not yet being breached but cases are hardly going down at all and any lifting of lockdown including opening schools will open the floodgates to another wave of covid, one our hopsitals can ill afford. On this evidence don't see any chance schools opening or any unlocking in March unless the vaccinations really start bringing infection rates down and quite quickly from now.

Without even clicking on that link I knew it was an imperial report.
 


beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,310
According to the Tanzanian Government they are. It's amazing - they haven't reported a single death or a case since June last year and their President was rambling on yesterday about vaccinations saying: "You should stand firm. Vaccinations are dangerous. If the white man was able to come up with vaccinations, he should have found a vaccination for Aids by now; he would have found a vaccination of tuberculosis by now; he would have found a vaccination for malaria by now; he would have found a vaccination for cancer by now."

Elsewhere, 2 travellers into Denmark just last week from Tanzania tested positive for the South African variant, on top of 1 coming into Ghana as well.................

??? are you insinuating something?

and in bold, we do have a vaccine for TB, too many refuse to take it.
 


dsr-burnley

Well-known member
Aug 15, 2014
2,191
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55827497

This survey is more accurate and flies in the face of the rapid decline in positive tests reported daily. It appears as Chris Whitty said that the lockdown measures are just about holding firm against the virus and we're not yet being breached but cases are hardly going down at all and any lifting of lockdown including opening schools will open the floodgates to another wave of covid, one our hopsitals can ill afford. On this evidence don't see any chance schools opening or any unlocking in March unless the vaccinations really start bringing infection rates down and quite quickly from now.
On the face of it, if you test half a million per day with results on a daily basis you would expect to get a better view of a trend than if you test 166,000 over a fortnight. Apart from a journalist's random thought, do you have any actual evidence to as to why the relatively small Imperial test with fortnightly results gives a better view of the daily trend than the daily testing?
 


crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
13,533
Lyme Regis
On the face of it, if you test half a million per day with results on a daily basis you would expect to get a better view of a trend than if you test 166,000 over a fortnight. Apart from a journalist's random thought, do you have any actual evidence to as to why the relatively small Imperial test with fortnightly results gives a better view of the daily trend than the daily testing?

There are far more variables in the daily tests, you are relying on people coming forward for a test and the number of tests can fluctuate quite substantially daily. Tak for example on Sunday and Monday with a blanket of snow covering much of the country the number of tests carried out was down. The random imperial test is testing a fair sample of the population across different geographical areas, different ages groups, differe different vocations etc to get a good idea of the actual number of cases occuring not just how many cases have been picked up.
 




beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,310
the React studies carried out by Imperial and others is more accurate, being a proper scientific field study. couple of caveats though, its lags behind and catches more non-symptomatic, which aren't reflected in daily report from PHE.
 


ManOfSussex

We wunt be druv
Apr 11, 2016
14,748
Rape of Hastings, Sussex
??? are you insinuating something?

and in bold, we do have a vaccine for TB, too many refuse to take it.

Vaccine refusal is not the issue with TB in Africa. When you've lived 1.5km away from a clinic treating HIV/AIDS patients and watched people turning up for TB medication every day when you go past, you might know a bit more about it.
 


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