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  1. #18351
    A. Virgo, Football Genius
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHAPPERS View Post
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    Hey don't ask me but you'd think he's got a point wouldn't you? I guess the answer is going to be somewhere in the middle.
    probably not, if he's complaining that people on his self-selecting, self-reporting app are different to the data from actual lab results across all demographics.

    also the drop off is seen in Scotland (seperate app, data collection) and in Netherlands, we'll watch if Spain, Portugal and France follow this week.
    The English know how to make the best of things. Their so-called muddling through is simply skill at dealing with the inevitable.

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    • #18352
      Im The Scatman
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      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...es-misleading/

      One in four patients classed as a Covid hospitalisation is being treated for other reasons, official data reveal, prompting claims that the public has been misled.

      For the first time, the NHS national stocktake establishes how many patients categorised as Covid hospitalisations had another primary cause of admission. The data shows that of 5,021 patients currently classed as hospitalised by Covid, 1,166 were admitted for other reasons.

      On Thursday night, Tory MPs accused the Government of making "flawed decisions based on misleading data", with leading scientists questioning why the true picture was only now beginning to emerge.

      Since last March, the NHS has published daily statistics on the number of Covid hospitalisations and the total number of patients in hospital with the virus.
    • #18353
      Massive up 170417 LamieRobertson's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by Kinky Gerbils View Post
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      https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...es-misleading/

      One in four patients classed as a Covid hospitalisation is being treated for other reasons, official data reveal, prompting claims that the public has been misled.

      For the first time, the NHS national stocktake establishes how many patients categorised as Covid hospitalisations had another primary cause of admission. The data shows that of 5,021 patients currently classed as hospitalised by Covid, 1,166 were admitted for other reasons.

      On Thursday night, Tory MPs accused the Government of making "flawed decisions based on misleading data", with leading scientists questioning why the true picture was only now beginning to emerge.

      Since last March, the NHS has published daily statistics on the number of Covid hospitalisations and the total number of patients in hospital with the virus.
      Was Hancock fiddling something else?
    • #18354
      Members e77's Avatar
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      If someone had another condition made worse by Covid that caused them to be hospitalised then it is entirely legitimate to include them in the figures. In the middle of a pandemic did you seriously expect hospitals to hold a case conference for every admission or just follow the guidelines and mark it as Covid case? If people came into hospital for another reason then caught Covid then they were in hospital with Covid.

      They were getting on with treating people.
      Unreasonable drinker
    • #18355
      Im The Scatman
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      Quote Originally Posted by e77 View Post
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      If someone had another condition made worse by Covid that caused them to be hospitalised then it is entirely legitimate to include them in the figures. In the middle of a pandemic did you seriously expect hospitals to hold a case conference for every admission or just follow the guidelines and mark it as Covid case? If people came into hospital for another reason then caught Covid then they were in hospital with Covid.

      They were getting on with treating people.
      Good job the article says now.
    • #18356
      A. Virgo, Football Genius
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      Quote Originally Posted by e77 View Post
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      If someone had another condition made worse by Covid that caused them to be hospitalised then it is entirely legitimate to include them in the figures. In the middle of a pandemic did you seriously expect hospitals to hold a case conference for every admission or just follow the guidelines and mark it as Covid case? If people came into hospital for another reason then caught Covid then they were in hospital with Covid.

      They were getting on with treating people.
      if public policy may be determined by whether people are being hospitalised with covid, or in hospital with covid, we better be sure we count the incidence correctly.

      as it is, even with the miscounting we have seen the link between cases and hospitalisation broken, so its academic.
      The English know how to make the best of things. Their so-called muddling through is simply skill at dealing with the inevitable.
    • #18357
      Members dazzer6666's Avatar
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      Yet more modelling scaremongering out of SAGE……..(DT extract)

      Modellers warned of ‘1m cases a week’ even as third wave was subsiding

      A day before cases peaked at 60,000, government scientists were saying that ‘stringent Covid measures’ could be needed
      By
      Sarah Knapton,
      SCIENCE EDITOR
      30 July 2021 • 9:30pm

      Government modellers predicted that cases could hit one million a week in a last-minute warning ahead of "Freedom Day".

      Documents released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies on Friday show that scientists forecast increasing numbers of cases and said they expected July 19 to bring "further waves of infections, hospitalisations and deaths".

      The statement of "concerns" from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) subgroup on July 14 also reveals that the modellers believed the ending of restrictions may have to be reversed.
      Last edited by Bozza; 31-07-2021 at 15:25. Reason: Please do not copy and paste so much from other sites. Post a para or two and link to original, even if paywalled
      "Prejudice is a great time saver. You can form opinions without having to get the facts"
    • #18358
      Members The Clamp's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by dazzer6666 View Post
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      Yet more modelling scaremongering out of SAGE……..(DT extract)

      Modellers warned of ‘1m cases a week’ even as third wave was subsiding

      A day before cases peaked at 60,000, government scientists were saying that ‘stringent Covid measures’ could be needed
      By
      Sarah Knapton,
      SCIENCE EDITOR
      30 July 2021 • 9:30pm

      Government modellers predicted that cases could hit one million a week in a last-minute warning ahead of "Freedom Day".

      Documents released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies on Friday show that scientists forecast increasing numbers of cases and said they expected July 19 to bring "further waves of infections, hospitalisations and deaths".

      The statement of "concerns" from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) subgroup on July 14 also reveals that the modellers believed the ending of restrictions may have to be reversed.
      All trying to keep the Covid money train chugging along.
      All aboard!
      Calling at;
      Contracts for chums parkway
      Tax free lump payment central
      And keep us in the headlines south.

      One way only. No buffet cart.
      The Clamp; the stink of excellence in a world gone tits up.
    • #18359
      Im The Scatman
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      Quote Originally Posted by dazzer6666 View Post
      This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
      Yet more modelling scaremongering out of SAGE……..(DT extract)

      Modellers warned of ‘1m cases a week’ even as third wave was subsiding

      A day before cases peaked at 60,000, government scientists were saying that ‘stringent Covid measures’ could be needed
      By
      Sarah Knapton,
      SCIENCE EDITOR
      30 July 2021 • 9:30pm

      Government modellers predicted that cases could hit one million a week in a last-minute warning ahead of "Freedom Day".

      Documents released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies on Friday show that scientists forecast increasing numbers of cases and said they expected July 19 to bring "further waves of infections, hospitalisations and deaths".

      The statement of "concerns" from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) subgroup on July 14 also reveals that the modellers believed the ending of restrictions may have to be reversed.
      Conversation

      Freddie Sayers
      @freddiesayers
      Prof Neil Ferguson tells Politico:

      “I’m quite happy to be wrong if it’s wrong in the right direction.”

      But why is making overly pessimistic forecasts an error in the right direction? The fact that gov scientists think that way has enormous consequences.
    • #18360
      Members dazzer6666's Avatar
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      1 Not allowed!
      Quote Originally Posted by Kinky Gerbils View Post
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      Conversation

      Freddie Sayers
      @freddiesayers
      Prof Neil Ferguson tells Politico:

      “I’m quite happy to be wrong if it’s wrong in the right direction.”

      But why is making overly pessimistic forecasts an error in the right direction? The fact that gov scientists think that way has enormous consequences.
      I think he revels in it……..I completely get that modelling will predict some grim outcomes (and much better ones), that’s the point. What’s lost is any balance - the extreme/pessimistic end of the scale is what he seems to delight in promoting, and the media jump on it.
      "Prejudice is a great time saver. You can form opinions without having to get the facts"

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