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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
Pierre the Painter
New member
- May 20, 2020
- 311
So Prof Neil Ferguson said only one week ago...
Prof Neil Ferguson said it was “almost inevitable” that Monday’s final phase of unlocking would bring on 100,000 daily cases, with about 1,000 hospitalisations – despite roughly half the UK being fully vaccinated. He added that he could foresee a situation in which the case rate expands to twice the size.
“The real question is do we get to double that – or even higher,” he told BBC One’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday,. “And that’s where the crystal ball starts to fail. I mean, we could get to 2,000 hospitalisations a day, 200,000 cases a day – but it’s much less certain.”
Then yesterday....
The bulk of the pandemic will be “behind us” by October, the scientist whose modelling led to the first nationwide lockdown has said.
Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London told the BBC’s Today programme that the effects of the vaccines has “been huge in reducing the risk of hospitalisation and death”.
“I think I’m positive that by late September, October time, we will be looking back at most of the pandemic,” he said, adding “we’ll still have Covid with us, we’ll still have people dying from Covid, but we’ll put the bulk of the pandemic behind us.”
Why has this guy got so much airtime in the last 15 months when his analysis has been proved to be wildly inaccurate and mostly overly pessimistic time and time again?
I do hope when there is an enquiry into the governments handling of the pandemic there is also an enquiry into the media, both written and broadcast, and their coverage of the pandemic where it seems they have taken great glee in sensationalist negative headlines and appear to have given far more coverage to 'experts' who have presented a more negative view of the consequences and future play out of the pandemic which has resulted in despite the fact the vast majority are very well protected from double vaccination still are afraid to go back to normal life.
Prof Neil Ferguson said it was “almost inevitable” that Monday’s final phase of unlocking would bring on 100,000 daily cases, with about 1,000 hospitalisations – despite roughly half the UK being fully vaccinated. He added that he could foresee a situation in which the case rate expands to twice the size.
“The real question is do we get to double that – or even higher,” he told BBC One’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday,. “And that’s where the crystal ball starts to fail. I mean, we could get to 2,000 hospitalisations a day, 200,000 cases a day – but it’s much less certain.”
Then yesterday....
The bulk of the pandemic will be “behind us” by October, the scientist whose modelling led to the first nationwide lockdown has said.
Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London told the BBC’s Today programme that the effects of the vaccines has “been huge in reducing the risk of hospitalisation and death”.
“I think I’m positive that by late September, October time, we will be looking back at most of the pandemic,” he said, adding “we’ll still have Covid with us, we’ll still have people dying from Covid, but we’ll put the bulk of the pandemic behind us.”
Why has this guy got so much airtime in the last 15 months when his analysis has been proved to be wildly inaccurate and mostly overly pessimistic time and time again?
I do hope when there is an enquiry into the governments handling of the pandemic there is also an enquiry into the media, both written and broadcast, and their coverage of the pandemic where it seems they have taken great glee in sensationalist negative headlines and appear to have given far more coverage to 'experts' who have presented a more negative view of the consequences and future play out of the pandemic which has resulted in despite the fact the vast majority are very well protected from double vaccination still are afraid to go back to normal life.
I don't think these statements contradict each other to be honest, though the first appears to be wildly worst-case.
Billy the Fish
Technocrat
Just for sh*ts and giggles. Found this parody account on Twitter yesterday and thought some of the regulars would appreciate the humour 
https://twitter.com/EricPhDing?s=09
https://twitter.com/EricPhDing?s=09
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
Just for sh*ts and giggles. Found this parody account on Twitter yesterday and thought some of the regulars would appreciate the humour
https://twitter.com/EricPhDing?s=09
Been following it for a while ..it’s the antidote for Eric’s account
DT extract - interesting take on things regarding herd immunity and the fall in infections:
Few straws have been left unclutched in the bid to explain the anomaly. Yet amid the bewilderment, few seem willing to consider the prospect that it is the vaccination programme which is doing most of the heavy lifting. Britain may be finally nearing the Holy Grail of herd immunity.
Latest Office for National Statistics figures suggest that nearly 92 per cent of adults now carry antibodies to coronavirus, representing about 73 per cent of the population as a whole. Large numbers of under-18s have also now been infected, and we now know that some people are naturally immune to the virus.
University College London estimates total population immunity is now at 87 per cent, although they believe the delta variant has shifted the herd immunity threshold to 93 per cent – meaning we’re not quite there yet. With a new mutating virus, the threshold can move significantly as the disease becomes more infectious.
But being close to the threshold makes it harder for the virus to transmit, even if it does not stop it entirely.
Dr David Matthews, a virologist and expert in coronaviruses from the University of Bristol, said: “In terms of herd immunity – by which we mean the virus has managed to reach everybody and therefore most people will have a level of immune memory – I suspect we’re very close to it.
“Assuming nothing truly spectacularly leftfield happens, then this pandemic is pretty much over for the UK. I suspect we will not see a major surge this winter, or any serious levels of fatalities.
“The more we close the gap on the last 10 per cent who haven’t had the vaccine, the better we will be. Everyone will eventually meet the virus and it is far better to do so vaccinated.”
As early as July 7, Dr Meaghan Kall, an epidemiologist at Public Health England, said the antibody data suggested age groups over 24 were “very close to herd immunity” through vaccination and previous infection.
And, paradoxically, mass mixing in the Euro 2020 tournament may also have helped push the country towards nationwide protection.
“A lot of people might be disgusted by me saying this, but ultimately the Euros might turn out to be one of the things that make the rest of the summer less stressful, as we've effectively immunised a lot more younger people who wouldn't otherwise have come for or been available for a vaccine,” said Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.
“But I would stress that I would never suggest that as a control strategy in advance.”
Full article (probably paywalled) https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/28/britain-may-finally-nearing-holy-grail-herd-immunity/
Few straws have been left unclutched in the bid to explain the anomaly. Yet amid the bewilderment, few seem willing to consider the prospect that it is the vaccination programme which is doing most of the heavy lifting. Britain may be finally nearing the Holy Grail of herd immunity.
Latest Office for National Statistics figures suggest that nearly 92 per cent of adults now carry antibodies to coronavirus, representing about 73 per cent of the population as a whole. Large numbers of under-18s have also now been infected, and we now know that some people are naturally immune to the virus.
University College London estimates total population immunity is now at 87 per cent, although they believe the delta variant has shifted the herd immunity threshold to 93 per cent – meaning we’re not quite there yet. With a new mutating virus, the threshold can move significantly as the disease becomes more infectious.
But being close to the threshold makes it harder for the virus to transmit, even if it does not stop it entirely.
Dr David Matthews, a virologist and expert in coronaviruses from the University of Bristol, said: “In terms of herd immunity – by which we mean the virus has managed to reach everybody and therefore most people will have a level of immune memory – I suspect we’re very close to it.
“Assuming nothing truly spectacularly leftfield happens, then this pandemic is pretty much over for the UK. I suspect we will not see a major surge this winter, or any serious levels of fatalities.
“The more we close the gap on the last 10 per cent who haven’t had the vaccine, the better we will be. Everyone will eventually meet the virus and it is far better to do so vaccinated.”
As early as July 7, Dr Meaghan Kall, an epidemiologist at Public Health England, said the antibody data suggested age groups over 24 were “very close to herd immunity” through vaccination and previous infection.
And, paradoxically, mass mixing in the Euro 2020 tournament may also have helped push the country towards nationwide protection.
“A lot of people might be disgusted by me saying this, but ultimately the Euros might turn out to be one of the things that make the rest of the summer less stressful, as we've effectively immunised a lot more younger people who wouldn't otherwise have come for or been available for a vaccine,” said Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia.
“But I would stress that I would never suggest that as a control strategy in advance.”
Full article (probably paywalled) https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/28/britain-may-finally-nearing-holy-grail-herd-immunity/
I think we should be cautious in putting the current (welcome) fall in infections down entirely to herd immunity, herd immunity would presage a more gradual reduction than the sharp turn we've seen in the last week. More likely to be impacting that at the moment is the end of the school year, removing both the main vector of transmission and also the requirement to test. And even Donald Trump (stable genius that he was) worked out less testing means fewer cases.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,310
I've seen literally nothing that puts it 'entirely down to herd immunity' - the whole article says we're not quite there yet - it's an encouraging take on possible direction of travel.
Herd immunity in isolation might (Would ? Why so sure ?) presage a more gradual reduction, but other factors have to be taken into account (weather, Euros etc) - the experts have no clear conclusion at this stage on the evolution of numbers and we can't look at any factor in isolation and make a judgement on that IMO. For example if as you say the end of the school year is more likely to be impacting the drop, why hasn't that been over-compensated for in the unlocking which actually preceded (or at least coincided with it) it in most cases ? From recent data, it looks as though the Euros were a much greater vector than schools (data replicated in Scotland too).
I think that is probably fair. Not exactly best practice in pandemic management but an event which raises immunity a percentage or two is probably quite useful until the vaccine programme is finished.
https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1420407991937949699?s=20
Testing isnt dramatically decreasing.
Extract from article in the DT by Sarah Knapton
Nate Silver, one of the world's most renowned forecasters, has criticised Prof Neil Ferguson for his "overconfident" prediction that Covid cases could rise to 100,000 a day.
Mr Silver, a statistician who rose to prominence after correctly calling the results of the 2008 US presidential election, said there were too many variables in the pandemic for anyone to be certain of the outcome.
This week, Prof Ferguson, of Imperial College, said he was positive the crisis would be in decline by the autumn, despite warning earlier in the month that it was "almost inevitable" that there would soon be 100,000 cases a day and possibly 200,000.
Writing on Twitter, Mr Silver said: "Covid cases have fallen to 33,000 per day (7-day average) since Neil Ferguson, perhaps the UK's most prominent epidemiologist, said it was 'almost inevitable' that cases would hit 100,000 a day.
"I don't care that the prediction is wrong, I'm sure this stuff is hard to predict. It's that he's consistently so overconfident. Now he says he's 'positive' the pandemic will be over by October. Well, probably. But there are downside risks: new variants, waning immunity, etc."
The political science author Prof Philip Tetlock also agreed with Mr Silver, adding: "Expect even top forecasters to make lots of mistakes. When smart forecasters are consistently overconfident, start suspecting they're not playing a pure-accuracy game (e.g. publicity or policy-advocacy games)."
Nate Silver, one of the world's most renowned forecasters, has criticised Prof Neil Ferguson for his "overconfident" prediction that Covid cases could rise to 100,000 a day.
Mr Silver, a statistician who rose to prominence after correctly calling the results of the 2008 US presidential election, said there were too many variables in the pandemic for anyone to be certain of the outcome.
This week, Prof Ferguson, of Imperial College, said he was positive the crisis would be in decline by the autumn, despite warning earlier in the month that it was "almost inevitable" that there would soon be 100,000 cases a day and possibly 200,000.
Writing on Twitter, Mr Silver said: "Covid cases have fallen to 33,000 per day (7-day average) since Neil Ferguson, perhaps the UK's most prominent epidemiologist, said it was 'almost inevitable' that cases would hit 100,000 a day.
"I don't care that the prediction is wrong, I'm sure this stuff is hard to predict. It's that he's consistently so overconfident. Now he says he's 'positive' the pandemic will be over by October. Well, probably. But there are downside risks: new variants, waning immunity, etc."
The political science author Prof Philip Tetlock also agreed with Mr Silver, adding: "Expect even top forecasters to make lots of mistakes. When smart forecasters are consistently overconfident, start suspecting they're not playing a pure-accuracy game (e.g. publicity or policy-advocacy games)."
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Debbie McGee supports daily testing for double-jabbed to avoid isolation
If the former wife and assistant of Paul Daniels is behind the idea then surely further debate is entirely unnecessary an it needs to be implemented post haste?
If the former wife and assistant of Paul Daniels is behind the idea then surely further debate is entirely unnecessary an it needs to be implemented post haste?
Surely just a natural infection curve is more important than all of these factors, as has been seen with every pandemic ever?
LamieRobertson
Not awoke
The apps based on people submitting symptoms and not a positive test?
Think they recently tweaked the process as well, wasn’t it way under before?
Edit:
The app has shown a headache is now the most reported symptom of the virus, whereas the only common symptoms recognised by the government have remained unchanged for some time: a high temperature, a new and continuous cough, and a loss of taste and/or smell.
A headache?
Hey don't ask me but you'd think he's got a point wouldn't you? I guess the answer is going to be somewhere in the middle.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 35,310
probably not, if he's complaining that people on his self-selecting, self-reporting app are different to the data from actual lab results across all demographics.
also the drop off is seen in Scotland (seperate app, data collection) and in Netherlands, we'll watch if Spain, Portugal and France follow this week.