Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

Kinky Gerbil · Jun 17, 2021

crodonilson said:
What chances full audiences for the opening weekend of EPL fixtures?? Slim? Looking positive at least for more than the 25% audiences at most Euro venues, but feel the most sensible move would be a requirement for face masks and proof of vaccination or negative test to attend games.

Personally I think they should only let those in that have had a third booster jab and wearing two face masks (following the science) with at least 20 seats between each person.

Children under the age of 18 shouldnt be allowed in at all as they wont be jabbed and all staff should be sacked unless they have mandatory jabs.

However we will be entering winter restrictions shortly after so it might not even be worth opening it at all.

dazzer6666 · Jun 17, 2021

Looks as though travel may start to open up again soon - plans being considered for the ‘double jabbed’ to be able to avoid quarantine on return, essentially meaning amber countries become green for those who have been fully vaccinated

Thunder Bolt · Jun 17, 2021

dazzer6666 said:
Looks as though travel may start to open up again soon - plans being considered for the ‘double jabbed’ to be able to avoid quarantine on return, essentially meaning amber countries become green for those who have been fully vaccinated

The cost of PCR tests are far too high at present. £57 each for departure but £146 each on return. That's for double jabbed people.

dazzer6666 · Jun 17, 2021

Thunder Bolt said:
The cost of PCR tests are far too high at present. £57 each for departure but £146 each on return. That's for double jabbed people.

Agree but enough will still pay it.....................

Kinky Gerbil · Jun 17, 2021

Thunder Bolt said:
The cost of PCR tests are far too high at present. £57 each for departure but £146 each on return. That's for double jabbed people.

It will be fazed out

LamieRobertson · Jun 17, 2021

dazzer6666 said:
Looks as though travel may start to open up again soon - plans being considered for the ‘double jabbed’ to be able to avoid quarantine on return, essentially meaning amber countries become green for those who have been fully vaccinated

Saw the DT posting about it last night ...how the rest of Europe was marching on without us ...”plans are at an early stage”

LamieRobertson · Jun 17, 2021

Kinky Gerbils said:
Personally I think they should only let those in that have had a third booster jab and wearing two face masks (following the science) with at least 20 seats between each person.

Children under the age of 18 shouldnt be allowed in at all as they wont be jabbed and all staff should be sacked unless they have mandatory jabs.

However we will be entering winter restrictions shortly after so it might not even be worth opening it at all.

Oh come on....six masks at least!

On a serious note nearly two months before PL starts...so gawd knows

Kinky Gerbil · Jun 17, 2021

LamieRobertson said:
Saw the DT posting about it last night ...how the rest of Europe was marching on without us ...”plans are at an early stage”

The EU are leaving us in the dust, which is winding a lot of brexiter MPs up.

The Gov have been hiding data (shock) which is the basis of Ryanair legal action

dazzer6666 · Jun 17, 2021

Modellers in yet another balls-up shocker.............................extract from DT article this morning (probably paywalled)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...elling-pushed-back-june-21-based-out-of-date/

On Monday, just hours before Boris Johnson pushed back Freedom Day by four weeks, the Government published new modelling, warning that a deadly third wave was on the horizon.

Under the most pessimistic scenario, Imperial College estimated Britain could experience a further 203,824 deaths by next June, while even modest estimates from other groups suggested more than 50,000 would die.

Yet it has now emerged the models were based on out-of-date estimates of vaccine effectiveness, which assumed far fewer people protected by the jabs.

Imperial was working on the basis that the AstraZeneca jab would reduce hospitalisations by between 77 and 87 per cent after two doses, while the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) suggested 81 to 90 per cent, and the University of Warwick put it a little higher – between 86 and 95 per cent.

We now know from real-world Public Health England (PHE) data that the AstraZeneca jab is 92 per cent effective against hospitalisation.

The effectiveness of the Pfizer jab was also underestimated by the groups, with Imperial estimating 84 to 90 per cent, LSHTM 85 to 90 per cent and Warwick 86 to 95 per cent. PHE currently estimates it is 96 per cent.

The distinction is important because it now means that both the pessimistic and central scenarios for all groups must be wrong. For Warwick, that would mean their death estimates could fall from 72,400 to 17,100.

Switching to an optimistic scenario would also see Imperial’s death figures fall from 203,824 to 26,854. Even that is likely to be too high as even their best-case vaccine efficacy was out by five per cent.

Kinky Gerbil · Jun 17, 2021

dazzer6666 said:
Modellers in yet another balls-up shocker.............................extract from DT article this morning (probably paywalled)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...elling-pushed-back-june-21-based-out-of-date/

On Monday, just hours before Boris Johnson pushed back Freedom Day by four weeks, the Government published new modelling, warning that a deadly third wave was on the horizon.

Under the most pessimistic scenario, Imperial College estimated Britain could experience a further 203,824 deaths by next June, while even modest estimates from other groups suggested more than 50,000 would die.

Yet it has now emerged the models were based on out-of-date estimates of vaccine effectiveness, which assumed far fewer people protected by the jabs.

Imperial was working on the basis that the AstraZeneca jab would reduce hospitalisations by between 77 and 87 per cent after two doses, while the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) suggested 81 to 90 per cent, and the University of Warwick put it a little higher – between 86 and 95 per cent.

We now know from real-world Public Health England (PHE) data that the AstraZeneca jab is 92 per cent effective against hospitalisation.

The effectiveness of the Pfizer jab was also underestimated by the groups, with Imperial estimating 84 to 90 per cent, LSHTM 85 to 90 per cent and Warwick 86 to 95 per cent. PHE currently estimates it is 96 per cent.

The distinction is important because it now means that both the pessimistic and central scenarios for all groups must be wrong. For Warwick, that would mean their death estimates could fall from 72,400 to 17,100.

Switching to an optimistic scenario would also see Imperial’s death figures fall from 203,824 to 26,854. Even that is likely to be too high as even their best-case vaccine efficacy was out by five per cent.

203k extra deaths? for goodness sake.

Do these qet quality controlled?

dazzer6666 · Jun 17, 2021

Kinky Gerbils said:
203k extra deaths? for goodness sake.

Do these qet quality controlled?

It's madness. A couple of issues for me - firstly the model calculations appear to be fundamentally and repeatedly flawed (given what's been reported there and previously), but also that MSM reporting, and more importantly decisions on what we're doing, seem to be being made assuming 'worst case scenario' as depicted in the modelling (when in reality we've actually been at the better end of forecasts in terms of things like vacc rollout and efficacy).

Models and modellers absolutely have their place and the scenario analysis based on various outcomes is important but the output should be checked, challenged (as you say really close QA given the importance of what might follow) and then be a contributory factor to the discussion and decision, not the key/only driver which seems to be the case. It's the tail wagging the dog.

I don't understand how this is happening - in my experience it's usually down to there being one or two exceptionally strong 'voices in the room' who everyone is afraid to challenge - in this case would have to be Boris or someone very close saying 'I've seen the models and they are unequivocal, and I'm not prepared to discuss them further'......

'.......but, but Boris, they're bollocks - they've used the wrong data..............and the worst case scenario - which we're using for lockdown - is just madness, it won't happen................'

'I said no more discussion, we're locking down. Now, is it time for tea and biscuits yet ?'

Probably the kind of intervention someone like Cummins would have made, ironically.

atomised · Jun 17, 2021

dazzer6666 said:
It's madness. A couple of issues for me - firstly the model calculations appear to be fundamentally and repeatedly flawed (given what's been reported there and previously), but also that MSM reporting, and more importantly decisions on what we're doing, seem to be being made assuming 'worst case scenario' as depicted in the modelling (when in reality we've actually been at the better end of forecasts in terms of things like vacc rollout and efficacy).

Models and modellers absolutely have their place and the scenario analysis based on various outcomes is important but the output should be checked, challenged (as you say really close QA given the importance of what might follow) and then be a contributory factor to the discussion and decision, not the key/only driver which seems to be the case. It's the tail wagging the dog.

I don't understand how this is happening - in my experience it's usually down to there being one or two exceptionally strong 'voices in the room' who everyone is afraid to challenge - in this case would have to be Boris or someone very close saying 'I've seen the models and they are unequivocal, and I'm not prepared to discuss them further'......

'.......but, but Boris, they're bollocks - they've used the wrong data..............and the worst case scenario - which we're using for lockdown - is just madness, it won't happen................'

'I said no more discussion, we're locking down. Now, is it time for tea and biscuits yet ?'

Probably the kind of intervention someone like Cummins would have made, ironically.

The constant go to being the worst case scenario seems like madness to me yet even on here some post that very scenario frequently as baked in fact

Albion Dan · Jun 17, 2021

Despite hoping of the best I am now totally resigned that we are never coming out of some sort of restrictions. Some SAGE scientists advocating wearing masks forever WTF? https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/covid-masks-continue-sage-scientist-b1863955.html

Talk of a Russian and Mexican variants already seeded, this is going on forever. We will forever be in perpetual giving and taking of freedoms and told to queue up to get our yearly medicine until we as a society say enough is enough and only then will it be over.

nicko31 · Jun 17, 2021

Kinky Gerbils said:
The EU are leaving us in the dust, which is winding a lot of brexiter MPs up.

The Gov have been hiding data (shock) which is the basis of Ryanair legal action

France has brought in a requirement for double vax + 14 days + test otherwise its test and isolate

Rightly or wrongly I can see we are weeks away from this being the norm here for Europe at least.

Ryanair / Easyjet & IAG share prices all up sharply today on the rumours here

Sounds pragmatic until you consider unvax'd kids will be big carriers

Kinky Gerbil · Jun 17, 2021

nicko31 said:
France has brought in a requirement for double vax + 14 days + test otherwise its test and isolate

Rightly or wrongly I can see we are weeks away from this being the norm here for Europe at least.

Ryanair / Easyjet & IAG share prices all up sharply today on the rumours here

Sounds pragmatic until you consider unvax'd kids will be big carriers

Fully-vaccinated travellers from EU countries will be able to enter France without taking a COVID test from 9 June, in line with new rules published on Friday.

for EU

Fully-vaccinated visitors from the United Kingdom and the United States will still be required to produce a negative test result. But they will no longer have to quarantine and non-essential travel will now be allowed - as you said for non EU

However that is changing shortly for US - But this new EU recommendation could go one step further in allowing U.S. tourists to visit with only a negative test and avoid the need for a period of quarantine.

darkwolf666 · Jun 17, 2021

Albion Dan said:
Despite hoping of the best I am now totally resigned that we are never coming out of some sort of restrictions. Some SAGE scientists advocating wearing masks forever WTF? https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/covid-masks-continue-sage-scientist-b1863955.html

Talk of a Russian and Mexican variants already seeded, this is going on forever. We will forever be in perpetual giving and taking of freedoms and told to queue up to get our yearly medicine until we as a society say enough is enough and only then will it be over.

To be fair, you have rather over sensationalised the report, where the scientist uses phrases like "might be a good idea" in relation to social distancing and mask wearing during flu season, likening it to people wearing a seat belt when they drive.

At no point does she say they must be worn or mandated to be worn, just a good idea - pretty similar to what many Asian countries have been doing for years - but we do like to kick back and resist in this country, even if its not in our best interests - after all, it's our civil liberties, innit...!

Bozza · Jun 17, 2021

darkwolf666 said:
To be fair, you have rather over sensationalised the report, where the scientist uses phrases like "might be a good idea" in relation to social distancing and mask wearing during flu season, likening it to people wearing a seat belt when they drive.

At no point does she say they must be worn or mandated to be worn, just a good idea - pretty similar to what many Asian countries have been doing for years - but we do like to kick back and resist in this country, even if its not in our best interests - after all, it's our civil liberties, innit...!

Blimey - news travel slowly somewhere. That interview happened about a week ago and, as you say, has been spun somewhat in certain quarters.

Professor Michie even took to twitter at the time to clarify.

[tweet]1403109668856205312[/tweet]

[tweet]1403420843217240071[/tweet]

[tweet]1403752832436772872[/tweet]

beorhthelm · Jun 17, 2021

Kinky Gerbils said:
Fully-vaccinated travellers from EU countries will be able to enter France without taking a COVID test from 9 June, in line with new rules published on Friday. ...

awkward question arises how to show you are vaccinated. did the EU go through with a vaccine passport? last i read we'd abandoned the idea, no standard to conform to one reason.

crodonilson · Jun 17, 2021

Chris Whitty braced for more major covid problems this winter

This is another reason we must try and keep cases as low as possible,it is highly likely cases will tick up through the Autumn and Winter period. If that's from a low base at the end of Sommer it should be manageable but if we still have many thousands of daily cases and new more transmissible variants come along we could have major problems (not to mention the expectation of a bad flu season too).

Kinky Gerbil · Jun 17, 2021

beorhthelm said:
awkward question arises how to show you are vaccinated. did the EU go through with a vaccine passport? last i read we'd abandoned the idea, no standard to conform to one reason.

Airlines are building their own and with IATA

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