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  1. #17101

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    Quote Originally Posted by beorhthelm View Post
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    yes, though they and all medical authorities had 6mth+ of telling us it was not aerosol, but droplets. there are naunces to the technical terms that mean it can be both. they seem to switch from leaning short range droplets to longer range aerosol droplets. there were very specific evidence on range leading to 2m distance (though less in some countries). the virus didn't change so was why did the advice? was the info for public dumbed down then upgraded, to calm then raise new concern. i suspect the truth is risk factors and viral loads with diminishing risk with distance outweighing the fear factor (such as windows open in winter to "let the virus out").
    Taking all that into account if experts say the Delta variant is 60% more transmissible what does that mean ?

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    • #17102
      Massive up 170417 LamieRobertson's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by Bozza View Post
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      It was me. I read Nic Freeman's thread last night, as James Ward RTed it. Much of the technical stuff went way over my head, however the two aren't contradictory, as you seem to be implying.

      There IS a correlation between cases and hospitalisations - there always has been.

      As I've said on this thread several times recently, the "conversion rate" from cases to hospitalisations has been getting better and better. From being around 10% a year ago, we're now down to 4-5% which is excellent news for us all.

      Nic Freeman's opening graph shows the recent end of that trend, drifting down from 7% in April to c3.5% now.

      The difference comes in that Oliver Johnson, like some others, has suggested 10 days provides the best fit, and his graph does show a very close match. Nic Freeman suggests that 6 days is the optimum time. Again, his technical reasoning for that is way above me, but I noticed that someone has mentioned OJ on that thread, and I'll be interested to see if he takes a look at 6 days v 10 days.

      Back to the tweet I embedded on here, all that illustrates is the hospitalisations currently "baked in" from the recent case surge. It's not intending to show the long-term improvement, although Oliver Johnson has tweeted out those longer-term "conversion rates" too.

      TL;DR...

      1. Fewer people who test positive are going to hospital than at any other point in the pandemic - everyone acknowledges that.
      2. We are probably looking at 250-300 hospitalisations per day in a week or two based on the recent surge in cases.
      3. Although still increasing, cases are showing signs of flattening out a bit, so the peak of cases, and hospitalisations may not be too far away. Fingers crossed.
      Likewise....it went way over my head....and yes I agree it will be interesting to see re 6v10

      ...and yes I guess I was implying but thanks (genuinely) for the interpretation.....I’m reading that not only are fewer people going to hospital but their stay is much shorter ...perhaps figures showing discharges should be put alongside admissions...and yes fingers and legs crossed.
    • #17103
      Living the dream Lyndhurst 14's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by Kinky Gerbils View Post
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      New York State are dropping all covid restrictions as they have hit the magical 70 percent mark for vaccines.
      When the pandemic started they were one of the global hot spots for infections and deaths and Andrew Cuomo, the Governor, came in for a lot of flack for his handling of the crisis but they really turned things around.
      "It's all bullshit folks, and it's bad for you" George Carlin
    • #17104
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      Quote Originally Posted by Lyndhurst 14 View Post
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      When the pandemic started they were one of the global hot spots for infections and deaths and Andrew Cuomo, the Governor, came in for a lot of flack for his handling of the crisis but they really turned things around.
      They say all restrictions - I assume there is some in place?

      Is it different for vax/unvax?
    • #17105
      Living the dream Lyndhurst 14's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by Kinky Gerbils View Post
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      They say all restrictions - I assume there is some in place?

      Is it different for vax/unvax?
      The official line is that virtually all COVID rules have expired and businesses are still free to continue with restrictions if they so wish, but all the major stuff, transit, shops, restaurants, gyms etc are back to normal. I think the push is on to get as many of the remaining 30% vaccinated as soon as possible. Lowest take up rates are the Bronx and Brooklyn. It's still a sobering thought that the US is about to hit the 600,000 deaths marker
      "It's all bullshit folks, and it's bad for you" George Carlin
    • #17106
      You can change this Bozza's Avatar
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      Delta going through the very same pattern in the US that it did in the UK, "hiding" it's growth under the rapid drop-off of Alpha, but may reach the tipping point where cases will start to rise again.

      May not bode well for the swathes of unvaccinated folk in certain geographical areas...

    • #17107
      You can change this Bozza's Avatar
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      9,055 new cases, the highest since 25th February, but it is still a positive in terms of indicating that the growth of new cases is continuing to slow.

      The 7-day average is now down to a growth rate of 31.8%, compared to 38.8% yesterday and 65.9% last Wednesday).
    • #17108
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      Quote Originally Posted by Bozza View Post
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      It was me. I read Nic Freeman's thread last night, as James Ward RTed it. Much of the technical stuff went way over my head, however the two aren't contradictory, as you seem to be implying.

      There IS a correlation between cases and hospitalisations - there always has been.

      As I've said on this thread several times recently, the "conversion rate" from cases to hospitalisations has been getting better and better. From being around 10% a year ago, we're now down to 4-5% which is excellent news for us all.

      Nic Freeman's opening graph shows the recent end of that trend, drifting down from 7% in April to c3.5% now.

      The difference comes in that Oliver Johnson, like some others, has suggested 10 days provides the best fit, and his graph does show a very close match. Nic Freeman suggests that 6 days is the optimum time. Again, his technical reasoning for that is way above me, but I noticed that someone has mentioned OJ on that thread, and I'll be interested to see if he takes a look at 6 days v 10 days.

      Back to the tweet I embedded on here, all that illustrates is the hospitalisations currently "baked in" from the recent case surge. It's not intending to show the long-term improvement, although Oliver Johnson has tweeted out those longer-term "conversion rates" too.

      TL;DR...

      1. Fewer people who test positive are going to hospital than at any other point in the pandemic - everyone acknowledges that.
      2. We are probably looking at 250-300 hospitalisations per day in a week or two based on the recent surge in cases.
      3. Although still increasing, cases are showing signs of flattening out a bit, so the peak of cases, and hospitalisations may not be too far away. Fingers crossed.
      I also read yesterday that those being admitted to hospital are staying for far less time on average (and far fewer ending up in ITU) and recovering much more quickly (largely because they are younger/less vulnerable obviously, but treatment is also improving) so even increased admissions won't be as dramatic as it was previously because discharge numbers will also be high.
      "Prejudice is a great time saver. You can form opinions without having to get the facts"
    • #17109
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      Quote Originally Posted by Bozza View Post
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      Delta going through the very same pattern in the US that it did in the UK, "hiding" it's growth under the rapid drop-off of Alpha, but may reach the tipping point where cases will start to rise again.

      May not bode well for the swathes of unvaccinated folk in certain geographical areas...

      No surprise which states are way, way behind in vaccinating.

      Click image for larger version. 

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      Whilst the New England states hover around 60% fully vax’d.
    • #17110
      Living the dream Lyndhurst 14's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by Weststander View Post
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      No surprise which states are way, way behind in vaccinating.

      Click image for larger version. 

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      Whilst the New England states hover around 60% fully vax’d.
      Yes, it's very difficult not to start profiling by the number of rednecks and churches in those States
      "It's all bullshit folks, and it's bad for you" George Carlin

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