Sussexscots
Fed up with trains. Sick of the rain.
Totally agree.
I thought that was a completely unnecessary piece of shroud waving. There's enough fear porn in the media without Johnson fuelling it.
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
Totally agree.
I thought that was a completely unnecessary piece of shroud waving. There's enough fear porn in the media without Johnson fuelling it.
Damned if you do, damned if you don't. There's a sizeable minority of our society that disregard whatever message is conveyed and will totally abandon all sense on the back of any good news.
I have no time for our government at all but (reluctantly perhaps) cut them some slack on their messaging
Billy the Fish
Technocrat
I can't find the article now but read earlier this fact has Neil Ferguson's fingerprints all over it.
Tabloids will present it as "30% more deadly" which sounds bad. Then at the end of the article they said the numbers which were something like 12 deaths in 1000 for the old strain and 16 deaths in 1000 for the new strain which is barely any different, although technically a 30% increase.
It's basically spreading panic where it doesn't need to be
Sussexscots
Fed up with trains. Sick of the rain.
Clearly there are some, but I think significantly fewer than is being portrayed. It seems to suit the Govt narrative to create folk demons.
I understand the need not to promote false hope. But also, you do need to take people with you. And I think the vast majority understand it will take a while.
The message, however has changed from vaccines being our saviour to lots of deadly new strains. No release for you lot just yet.
Hope is again being sequestered. And once ordinary, responsible people feel there's no point, because, whatever they do, it's not getting any easier then compliance drops away even faster.
I just don't believe there's a right answer. I'm not even there but I am in touch with friends and family and hear a lot of stuff about non compliance. If I understand it correctly it really doesn't need large numbers to disregard what's being asked of them to keep this thing at the current levels.
My point is, whatever message the government and their experts send it's going to be criticised. If they don't prepare us for potential bad news they'll be got at in the same way that they would if they glossed over it
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1352710403495579649?s=20
Sam Coates Sky [MENTION=612]Sam[/MENTION]CoatesSky
Interestingly Public Health England tonight very clear that they, PHE, *can’t* say the variant causes a higher death rate with certainty...
.... and there are some important limitations to the data on which these analyses are based.
Sam Coates Sky [MENTION=612]Sam[/MENTION]CoatesSky
Interestingly Public Health England tonight very clear that they, PHE, *can’t* say the variant causes a higher death rate with certainty...
.... and there are some important limitations to the data on which these analyses are based.
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,194
The problem with the "doom and gloom and we may never leave lockdown" scenario is that it will tempt a lot of people to say "sod that, people in prison get a better life than I have now, I'm not bothering with the law any more". If you let people know there is hope, they can put up with short term misery. If you let them believe the misery is long term or even permanent, they won't put up with it.
Rather like the lady referred to a few pages back. You can tell people that if they sit alone in their room for a few months the rest of their lives will be better; they can stand that for a while. But if you tell people that they can sit alone in their rooms until they die but they can never get out, then many of them will take their chance.
Remember that normally, 10% of over 80's die each year. This year, it's 12%. Assuming the vaccine doesn't totally fail, then even with no restrictions at all I wouldn't expect future years to be any worse than this year as a worst case scenario; if you were told that you can enjoy the next year with an 88% chance of survival, or it can be as miserable as the last with a 90% chance of survival, which would you choose?
Rather like the lady referred to a few pages back. You can tell people that if they sit alone in their room for a few months the rest of their lives will be better; they can stand that for a while. But if you tell people that they can sit alone in their rooms until they die but they can never get out, then many of them will take their chance.
Remember that normally, 10% of over 80's die each year. This year, it's 12%. Assuming the vaccine doesn't totally fail, then even with no restrictions at all I wouldn't expect future years to be any worse than this year as a worst case scenario; if you were told that you can enjoy the next year with an 88% chance of survival, or it can be as miserable as the last with a 90% chance of survival, which would you choose?
dsr-burnley
Well-known member
- Aug 15, 2014
- 2,194
He's aware there are about 200 new variants, is he? Four or five new ones every week?
It took four months to identify the Kent mutation. Is Boris suggesting that (just to be on the safe side) there will be no release from lockdown until 4 months have passed without a single case?
Interesting take. Personally I'd say that the problem with the "never leaving lockdown" scenario is never leaving lockdown and the permanent misery you mention.
I'd say that governments have about a year of lockdown and other harsh measures to play with, any more than that and people wont put up with it - justifiably so, because hundreds of millions of dead or whatever it would end up being is preferable to mankind being permanently locked up.
I honestly can't see compliance lasting much after the first bit of warmer weather. Plenty of illegal raves last summer and down here Brighton Beach and Hove Lawns were absolutely packed on every hot day. Throw into that an older generation who will think they're invincible (though from the big groups of dog walkers who "accidentally" bump into each other down here many already think they are), a younger generation who will have had enough and people in the middle who are going crazy and that will be it. The Euros will definitley do it but a hot day in April could well be the trigger.
Beyond that Boris will know deep down he can't afford to keep everyone banged up forever. He'll want his legacy to be the guy who beat Covid and delivered a successful Brexit, not the guy who bankrupted the country and single handedly finished off the arts, sports and hospitality industries. I simply think there has been a strategy change at Number 10. Boris was openly criticised by journalists from normally Tory leaning publications for over promising and under delivering. I think we're now at the under promise and over deliver stage.
Billy the Fish
Technocrat
I don't have a problem with any of that, weather permitting.
The infections graph from last year tells us that covid dies out in summer when people are outside. All the things you mention happened, pubs and restaurants opened and there was hardly any infection in the community. It's only when the weather turned that it all kicked off again.
Sussexscots
Fed up with trains. Sick of the rain.
BBC now reporting scientists playing down the 'more deadly' narrative from last night.
It really doesn't do public morale, or the Government's image of competence, any good for ministers to be jumping round like scalded cats in response to every piece of scientific gossip or conjecture.
You'd hope for a more balanced and reflective approach from our leaders.
It really doesn't do public morale, or the Government's image of competence, any good for ministers to be jumping round like scalded cats in response to every piece of scientific gossip or conjecture.
You'd hope for a more balanced and reflective approach from our leaders.
They have an interview with someone from Sage in telegraph.
It is too early to draw "strong conclusions" about whether the new variant found in Kent last autumn is associated with increased mortality rates, according to a member of Sage subgroup the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-M).
Boris Johnson announced on Friday that the first major study of the mutation – which emerged in Kent last month – had found evidence that it is up to 30 per cent more lethal as well as being up to 70 per cent more infectious.
Dr Mike Tildesley, a professor of infectious disease modelling, told the BBC he "was actually quite surprised the news had been announced at a news conference".
"It seems to have gone up a little bit from about 10 people per thousand to about 13 which is quite a small rise but it's based on a relatively small amount of data," Dr Tildesley added.
"I would be wanting to wait for a week or two more, monitoring a little bit more before we draw really strong conclusions about this. I just worry that where we report things pre-emptively where the data are not really particularly strong."
Plus PHE are calling this out
Tom Hark Preston Park
Will Post For Cash
- Jul 6, 2003
- 70,366
Is this REALLY a more virulent strain of covid or are there just more entitled ****s holding 200 people gatherings? 
crodonilson
He/Him
Hancock this morning said we are 'a long long way' from having case numbers low enough to lift any restrictions. Also couldn't be sure schools will go back after Easter holidays in mid-April and they will be the first thing of a very gradual unlock.
Is this REALLY a more virulent strain of covid or are there just more entitled ****s holding 200 people gatherings?
The latter certainly doesn’t help. No matter how virulent the virus is you still have to put yourself in a position to catch it. Stay at home and you won’t get it.
crodonilson
He/Him
Government source says schools not expected back until May.
RossyG
Well-known member
- Dec 20, 2014
- 2,630