Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

crodonilson said:

You're not comparing apples with apples though, 38 people were ill enough to be admitted into hospital during a lockdown where people were told to only leave their homes for the most essential reasons. This summer there is likely to be much more social mixing, and much more virus circulating mean all of these vaccinated and all of the unvaccinated people will be far more likely to come into contact with the virus so sadly that figure will shoot up.

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dazzer6666 said:

...and you're missing the point as yet again you seek to find any hint of doom and gloom in all things Covid-related. The data is in relation to vaccinated people, and the EXTREMELY SUCCESSFUL results shown from just a single vaccination on preventing serious illness and death. We already know the young and otherwise not vulnerable are highly unlikely to get seriously ill, and the data (which will be fully exposed later this week - possibly today) is going to show that virtually everyone who has been vaccinated (with even a single jab) is unlikely to go into hospital, let alone die.

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crodonilson said:

It's not doom and gloom, it's realism. There is much to be cautiously optimistic about currently, and I hope we continue to cautiously ease ourselves back to something approaching normality but we must be very cautious, many of the leading member of SAGE who know much more about this than you are I are saying it is almost certain we will gwet a third wave of Covid at some point this year and overall the pandemic is growing and not shrinking worldwide. Many people are acting as though we are nearly out of the woods and if they think that their actions will probably follow by not adhering to the rules. If the third wave were to begin imminently we could still be in a lot of trouble.

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crodonilson said:

It's not doom and gloom, it's realism. There is much to be cautiously optimistic about currently, and I hope we continue to cautiously ease ourselves back to something approaching normality but we must be very cautious, many of the leading member of SAGE who know much more about this than you are I are saying it is almost certain we will gwet a third wave of Covid at some point this year and overall the pandemic is growing and not shrinking worldwide. Many people are acting as though we are nearly out of the woods and if they think that their actions will probably follow by not adhering to the rules. If the third wave were to begin imminently we could still be in a lot of trouble.

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crodonilson said:

It's not doom and gloom, it's realism. There is much to be cautiously optimistic about currently, and I hope we continue to cautiously ease ourselves back to something approaching normality but we must be very cautious, many of the leading member of SAGE who know much more about this than you are I are saying it is almost certain we will gwet a third wave of Covid at some point this year and overall the pandemic is growing and not shrinking worldwide. Many people are acting as though we are nearly out of the woods and if they think that their actions will probably follow by not adhering to the rules. If the third wave were to begin imminently we could still be in a lot of trouble.

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crodonilson said:

It's not doom and gloom, it's realism.

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beorhthelm said:

its doom. to get the death rate you refer to earlier, 30-100k in the rest of the year, would be improbable with vaccinations and residual behavioural change. 10k attributed to Covid would be unlikely. cases will continue but as we gain immunity, from exposure or vaccines, the risks of hospitalisation and death dramatically reduce. it becomes another everyday disease like pneumonia or influenza.

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Richy_Seagull said:

Things getting horribly bad in India.

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crodonilson said:

You're not comparing apples with apples though, 38 people were ill enough to be admitted into hospital during a lockdown where people were told to only leave their homes for the most essential reasons. This summer there is likely to be much more social mixing, and much more virus circulating mean all of these vaccinated and all of the unvaccinated people will be far more likely to come into contact with the virus so sadly that figure will shoot up.

Click to expand...

crodonilson said:

You're not comparing apples with apples though, 38 people were ill enough to be admitted into hospital during a lockdown where people were told to only leave their homes for the most essential reasons. This summer there is likely to be much more social mixing, and much more virus circulating mean all of these vaccinated and all of the unvaccinated people will be far more likely to come into contact with the virus so sadly that figure will shoot up.

Click to expand...

crodonilson said:

It's not doom and gloom, it's realism. There is much to be cautiously optimistic about currently, and I hope we continue to cautiously ease ourselves back to something approaching normality but we must be very cautious, many of the leading member of SAGE who know much more about this than you are I are saying it is almost certain we will gwet a third wave of Covid at some point this year and overall the pandemic is growing and not shrinking worldwide. Many people are acting as though we are nearly out of the woods and if they think that their actions will probably follow by not adhering to the rules. If the third wave were to begin imminently we could still be in a lot of trouble.

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dsr-burnley said:

The point you're missing is the vaccination effect. For the last couple of months, we have been in effect split into two roughly equal sized groups.

Group 1, the people who have had at least one vaccination, almost entirely made up of the old, the ill, the vulnerable, and those who are exposed to coronavirus daily.
Group 2,the unvaccinated, made up of the young, the fit, the healthy. and the children.

Both groups have been subject to the same lockdown. And while group 2 even now has a couple of hundred of its members going into hospital every day, group 1 (the ones likely to become ill) have been going into hospital at the rate of two or three a week. That is the effect that vaccination (even partial vaccination) has.

(Actually it was 32 vaccinated people gone to hospital, not 38. I misremembered the number.)

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Napper said:

people haven't been follwing the rules as strictly for weeks.

Pubs open for 2 weeks , schools been open for weeks , meeting outside open for weeks. All data continues to drop.

Even work places now calling people back en mass.

It's over and roll on summer / amex

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Napper said:

people haven't been follwing the rules as strictly for weeks.

Pubs open for 2 weeks , schools been open for weeks , meeting outside open for weeks. All data continues to drop.

Even work places now calling people back en mass.

It's over and roll on summer / amex

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crodonilson said:

I just hope most other people don't share this attitude otherwise we could very quickly find ourselves in a very bad place again, it is far from over. It is however widely accepted that with warmer weather and outdooors activities the risk is very low, so we can safely enjoy outdoor activities over the coming months.

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dazzer6666 said:

Could you just, for clarity, explain who (ie what group of people) are going to end up dying in the numbers your predict in the coming ‘third wave’ please ? It’s not the old and/or vulnerable and the vaccinated (we already know the vaccine is incredibly effective), it’s not the young and fit (we know the % of that group ending up seriously ill is tiny) and likewise it’s not children who are almost universally unaffected.

So who is it ?

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crodonilson said:

It is predominantly the old and the vulnerable still because there are still a significant amount of people who for health or personal reasons have still not been vaccinated, we know that 95% of groups 1-9 priority were vaccinated but that still leaves 1.5m people who are very vulnerable and if on 21st June all measures are dropped the covid virus will quickly spread again, and many chains which will not be broken by social distancing and other mwearues will end with a vulnerable person becoming infected. It will also at that point infect many young people, the vast majority of which will be unaffected but I believe that in Brazil for example half of the people in hospital are under 40, so whilst it will be a very small percentage of the people who become ill because of the number of unvaccinated people under 40 in thew UK it only takes a relatively small number percentage wise to again put extreme pressure on the NHS. Very few of these people will eventually die but many may suffer from long covid and will again take up a lot of resource for the NHS when they are in hospital.

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