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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread



The Wizard

The Wizard

Well-known member
Jul 2, 2009
18,383
Just caught up with that press conference or whatever the hell it was with Chris Whitty and Valance and I’m flabbergasted, one of the worst examples of fear mongering I’ve ever seen.

This government is an absolute laughing stock.
 




Bozza

Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,834
Back in Sussex
Kinky Gerbils said:
It just comes across as them covering their backs

I was listening on the radio - so I’m happy to have this taken apart -

They said that we could be at 49,000 cases per day by mid Oct ? At peak the first time we had 7,500 per day , their figures suggest 1.4 million cases per month ? We have only had a total of 394,257 cases.

So how many more cases did we have in peak ?
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The number stated repeatedly about the peak of the March/April wave is c100,000 infections per day.
 


A1X

A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
17,993
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Albion Dan said:
Anyone get the impression things are being said just to terrify everybody? What is Whittys case rise prediction based on? Certainly not France or Spain!

View attachment 128593
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Wow I dread to think how seriously you take the annual "Staying up tracker" thread.

"But you said we'd be on 27 points by now and we're only on 21, why are you doing this to us???"
 


e77

e77

Well-known member
May 23, 2004
7,268
Worthing
I think two of the leading scientists in the country adequately showed their working out of how they predicted the infection rate in the upcoming weeks and we found out earlier in the year these things grow exponentially.
 


beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,332
pb21 said:
It wasn't a case prediction, they stated this quite clearly.
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which begs the question, why show it. it really isnt very helpful if the scientists are going to put out questionable, edge case information. risk discrediting and diluting real messaging.
 




pb21

pb21

Well-known member
Apr 23, 2010
6,346
beorhthelm said:
which begs the question, why show it. it really isnt very helpful if the scientists are going to put out questionable, edge case information. risk discrediting them and diluting real messaging.
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I do agree, but I suspect this was more of a political choice rather than a scientific one. I would be surprised if they were fully on board conflating an arbitrary scenario with a more rigorous prediction, which is probably why they made this very explicit.
 


beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,332
why would the politicans want to ramp up fear and go for more restrictions if not needed? scientists might like to be over cautious, dramatise and build their part, usually politicans look for the best case route.
 


K

Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
57,941
hassocks
beorhthelm said:
why would the politicans want to ramp up fear and go for more restrictions if not needed? scientists might like to be over cautious, dramatise and build their part, usually politicans look for the best case route.
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I personally think the issue is ( not just for U.K.) is they are stuck on how
To get out of this, we went into lockdown with x amounts of cases and deaths and now we are around the same cases the pressure is on to go back onto lock down

There was no plan on how to get out of this when we went into it.

France seems to be carrying on releasing more still despite the increase.
 




beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,332
Kinky Gerbils said:
I personally think the issue is ( not just for U.K.) is they are stuck on how
To get out of this, we went into lockdown with x amounts of cases and deaths and now we are around the same cases the pressure is on to go back onto lock down

There was no plan on how to get out of this when we went into it.

France seems to be carrying on releasing more still despite the increase.
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well yes thats a thing. dont think any two countries have had common approach to response. they must get away from cases and onto hospitalisation and mortality, that what matters.
 


K

Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
57,941
hassocks
beorhthelm said:
well yes thats a thing. dont think any two countries have had common approach to response. they must get away from cases and onto hospitalisation and mortality, that what matters.
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Another thing

All the prediction not prediction today has done is muddied the water

It’s being publish as fact - Number 10 Twitter is tweeting all the slides now.
 






Albion Dan

Albion Dan

Banned
Jul 8, 2003
11,125
Peckham
A1X said:
Wow I dread to think how seriously you take the annual "Staying up tracker" thread.

"But you said we'd be on 27 points by now and we're only on 21, why are you doing this to us???"
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At least the staying up tracker is based on historical information and probability. Today they have just plucked a random terrifying trajectory out the air and said look what could happen. I mean, a random prediction tool on NSC about football matches is likely more accurate than something created by the countries best scientific minds. WTF.
 


pb21

pb21

Well-known member
Apr 23, 2010
6,346
beorhthelm said:
why would the politicans want to ramp up fear and go for more restrictions if not needed? scientists might like to be over cautious, dramatise and build their part, usually politicans look for the best case route.
Click to expand...

The politicans may only implement restrictions they think are needed and that are proportionate, and the scientists may well agree with them.

But it is the politicans job to sell those restrictions such that the public buy them. I think Valance and Whitty were selling something they think is needed, albeit advertising it using slightly dubious methods.
 






pb21

pb21

Well-known member
Apr 23, 2010
6,346
Albion Dan said:
Totally agree with this.
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Ultimately they are though aren't they.

Thing is though once hospitalisations and deaths are high enough that people are satisfied there is a problem, the problem is already out of hand.

I do wonder if the current restrictions are proportionate and even more so further restrictions, but if you wait to know then it's too late and more heavy handed measures would be required.

Imagine if everyone had undertook a light touch lockdown in February, who would have believed it was worth it then though?
 












K

Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
57,941
hassocks
Seems it’s already been leaked

BORIS Johnson is to announce a 10pm closing time for pubs tomorrow, The Sun can reveal, as scientists increased the nation's alert level to FOUR.

As part of a package of measures to be unveiled to tackle soaring Covid cases, the Prime Minister will slap a curfew on the hospitality industry and enforce patrols to make sure venues are obeying the "rule of six".

And pubs, bars and restaurants could be shut completely in virus hotspots.

The measures, which were outlined to devolved leaders today, will be kept under review.

The curfew is different to the one currently in place in Wales - where they face an 11pm shutdown - but is significantly less severe than a possible two week complete shut-down which was mooted by SAGE scientists just last week.

All fine.

But they need to extend furlough for these industries
 


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