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  1. #19411

    Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread


    0 Not allowed!
    They know what is what,
    But they don't know what is what,
    They just strut.

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    • #19412

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      Do we actually know anything about this variant which makes it significantly more problematic than all the others? These steps from government seem purely precautionary- could turn out to be a non-issue if it’s no worse than all the others.
      They know what is what,
      But they don't know what is what,
      They just strut.
    • #19413
      Members e77's Avatar
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      Speaking as someone who has criticised the government previously on face covering and the like, this sounds fairly proportionate to me.
      Unreasonable drinker
    • #19414
      A. Virgo, Football Genius
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      Quote Originally Posted by Marty___Mcfly View Post
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      Do we actually know anything about this variant which makes it significantly more problematic than all the others? These steps from government seem purely precautionary- could turn out to be a non-issue if it’s no worse than all the others.
      there is $scary_num amount of gene changes in this variant. most of these changes have been seen before a few not, some seen in other Bad Variants(tm). its too early to say if it is more transmissable than the dominant Delta strain, too early to say if it will be a worse disease, too early to say if vaccine will be less effective. the track record has been for the vaccine to continue working on range of variants, they do know exactly what genes are used and know if there is a match to changes. the fact no scientist has outright said "it will evade the vaccine" leads me to believe it will not.
      The English know how to make the best of things. Their so-called muddling through is simply skill at dealing with the inevitable.
    • #19415
      Todd Warrior Motogull's Avatar
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      Boosted.

      50+ miles from the Amex and a BHA bobble hat in the q in front of me.
    • #19416
      Im The Scatman
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      More cases in Cardiff.

      If it’s in Essex and Cardiff - chances are there is quite a few cases already
    • #19417
      Members Boys 9d's Avatar
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      Could it be that having made face coverings non mandatory and realising their mistake, have the Government jumped at an excuse to reverse that decision without appearing to have done a U-turn?
      “It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled” - Mark Twain
    • #19418
      Members Pondicherry's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by dsr-burnley View Post
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      Unfortunately, all your conclusions are based on a false premise so they can all be disregarded. The Swedish report quite emphatically does not say there is no measurable benefit after 211 days.

      Here's the report interpretation summary.

      "Interpretation: Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 infection wanes progressively over time across all subgroups, but at different rate according to type of vaccine, and faster for men and older frail individuals. The effectiveness against severe illness seems to remain high through 9 months, although not for men, older frail individuals, and individuals with comorbidities. This strengthens the evidence-based rationale for administration of a third booster dose."

      In conjunction with the earlier part of the report, what they are saying is that effectiveness of the vaccine against symptomatic covid is somewhere between -2% and 41% after 211 days, but effectiveness against serious illness is still high. Or put another way, the survey concludes that if you were vaccinated against covid in April, you might get it again but it is unlikely to be serious.

      It is obviously nonsense to suggest that prevention of serious illness is not a measurable benefit. Please think again about the Swedish report.
      Here are the actual figures from the report rather than the summary:

      Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection
      During a mean (range) follow-up of 116 (15-280) days, a symptomatic infection was
      confirmed in a total of 27,918 individuals, of which 6,147 were vaccinated individuals
      (incidence rate [IR], 4·9/100,000 person-days) and 21,771 were unvaccinated individuals (IR,
      31·6/100,000 person-days). As shown in Figure 2 and Table 2, there was a progressive
      waning in vaccine effectiveness (2 doses of any vaccine) against symptomatic infection over
      time. Effectiveness peaked at day 15-30 (92%; 95% CI, 91-93, P<0·001) and declined
      marginally at day 31-60 (89%; 95% CI, 88-89, P<0·001). From thereon, the waning became
      more pronounced, and from day 211 days onwards, there was no remaining detectable
      effectiveness (23%; 95% CI, -2-41, P=0·07).



      Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization and death
      During a mean follow-up of 113 (15-274) days, there were 277 cases of Covid-19
      hospitalization or death among vaccinated individuals (IR, 0·23/100,000 person-days) and
      825 cases among unvaccinated individuals (IR, 1·21/100,000 person-days) (Supplemental
      Figure 1 and Supplemental Table 2). Vaccine effectiveness (any vaccine) was 89% at day 15-
      30 (95% CI, 83-93, P<0·001), which declined to 74% (95% CI, 47-87, P<0·001) by day 121-
      180, and from day 181 and onwards, there was no detectable associated effectiveness (42%;
      95% CI, -35-75, P=0·21).
    • #19419
      Tyson Gay crodonilson's Avatar
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      Quote Originally Posted by Boys 9d View Post
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      Could it be that having made face coverings non mandatory and realising their mistake, have the Government jumped at an excuse to reverse that decision without appearing to have done a U-turn?
      Doubt it as they've already said they hope and expect these will be temporary and can be reversed when reviewed in 3 weeks. If we can get people having the discipline to wear face masks where it is a legal requirement, hopefully we can get people to change their behaviours in other settings too. I think we should continue with face coverings now until we're into late Spring and past all the real issues the NHS might get over the coming months.
      Hands, face, space and fresh air....lets take this next step together safely

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