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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread



K

Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
57,910
hassocks
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/29/hospital-figures-covid-cases-misleading/

One in four patients classed as a Covid hospitalisation is being treated for other reasons, official data reveal, prompting claims that the public has been misled.

For the first time, the NHS national stocktake establishes how many patients categorised as Covid hospitalisations had another primary cause of admission. The data shows that of 5,021 patients currently classed as hospitalised by Covid, 1,166 were admitted for other reasons.

On Thursday night, Tory MPs accused the Government of making "flawed decisions based on misleading data", with leading scientists questioning why the true picture was only now beginning to emerge.

Since last March, the NHS has published daily statistics on the number of Covid hospitalisations and the total number of patients in hospital with the virus.
 




LamieRobertson

LamieRobertson

Not awoke
Feb 3, 2008
46,745
SHOREHAM BY SEA
Kinky Gerbils said:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/29/hospital-figures-covid-cases-misleading/

One in four patients classed as a Covid hospitalisation is being treated for other reasons, official data reveal, prompting claims that the public has been misled.

For the first time, the NHS national stocktake establishes how many patients categorised as Covid hospitalisations had another primary cause of admission. The data shows that of 5,021 patients currently classed as hospitalised by Covid, 1,166 were admitted for other reasons.

On Thursday night, Tory MPs accused the Government of making "flawed decisions based on misleading data", with leading scientists questioning why the true picture was only now beginning to emerge.

Since last March, the NHS has published daily statistics on the number of Covid hospitalisations and the total number of patients in hospital with the virus.
Click to expand...

Was Hancock fiddling something else? :whistle:
 


e77

e77

Well-known member
May 23, 2004
7,268
Worthing
If someone had another condition made worse by Covid that caused them to be hospitalised then it is entirely legitimate to include them in the figures. In the middle of a pandemic did you seriously expect hospitals to hold a case conference for every admission or just follow the guidelines and mark it as Covid case? If people came into hospital for another reason then caught Covid then they were in hospital with Covid.

They were getting on with treating people.
 


K

Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
57,910
hassocks
e77 said:
If someone had another condition made worse by Covid that caused them to be hospitalised then it is entirely legitimate to include them in the figures. In the middle of a pandemic did you seriously expect hospitals to hold a case conference for every admission or just follow the guidelines and mark it as Covid case? If people came into hospital for another reason then caught Covid then they were in hospital with Covid.

They were getting on with treating people.
Click to expand...

Good job the article says now.
 


beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,313
e77 said:
If someone had another condition made worse by Covid that caused them to be hospitalised then it is entirely legitimate to include them in the figures. In the middle of a pandemic did you seriously expect hospitals to hold a case conference for every admission or just follow the guidelines and mark it as Covid case? If people came into hospital for another reason then caught Covid then they were in hospital with Covid.

They were getting on with treating people.
Click to expand...

if public policy may be determined by whether people are being hospitalised with covid, or in hospital with covid, we better be sure we count the incidence correctly.

as it is, even with the miscounting we have seen the link between cases and hospitalisation broken, so its academic.
 




dazzer6666

dazzer6666

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Mar 27, 2013
52,497
Burgess Hill
Yet more modelling scaremongering out of SAGE……..(DT extract)

Modellers warned of ‘1m cases a week’ even as third wave was subsiding

A day before cases peaked at 60,000, government scientists were saying that ‘stringent Covid measures’ could be needed
By
Sarah Knapton,
SCIENCE EDITOR
30 July 2021 • 9:30pm

Government modellers predicted that cases could hit one million a week in a last-minute warning ahead of "Freedom Day".

Documents released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies on Friday show that scientists forecast increasing numbers of cases and said they expected July 19 to bring "further waves of infections, hospitalisations and deaths".

The statement of "concerns" from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) subgroup on July 14 also reveals that the modellers believed the ending of restrictions may have to be reversed.
 
Last edited by a moderator:


The Clamp

The Clamp

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jan 11, 2016
24,539
West is BEST
dazzer6666 said:
Yet more modelling scaremongering out of SAGE……..(DT extract)

Modellers warned of ‘1m cases a week’ even as third wave was subsiding

A day before cases peaked at 60,000, government scientists were saying that ‘stringent Covid measures’ could be needed
By
Sarah Knapton,
SCIENCE EDITOR
30 July 2021 • 9:30pm

Government modellers predicted that cases could hit one million a week in a last-minute warning ahead of "Freedom Day".

Documents released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies on Friday show that scientists forecast increasing numbers of cases and said they expected July 19 to bring "further waves of infections, hospitalisations and deaths".

The statement of "concerns" from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) subgroup on July 14 also reveals that the modellers believed the ending of restrictions may have to be reversed.
Click to expand...

All trying to keep the Covid money train chugging along.
All aboard!
Calling at;
Contracts for chums parkway
Tax free lump payment central
And keep us in the headlines south.

One way only. No buffet cart.
 


K

Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
57,910
hassocks
dazzer6666 said:
Yet more modelling scaremongering out of SAGE……..(DT extract)

Modellers warned of ‘1m cases a week’ even as third wave was subsiding

A day before cases peaked at 60,000, government scientists were saying that ‘stringent Covid measures’ could be needed
By
Sarah Knapton,
SCIENCE EDITOR
30 July 2021 • 9:30pm

Government modellers predicted that cases could hit one million a week in a last-minute warning ahead of "Freedom Day".

Documents released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies on Friday show that scientists forecast increasing numbers of cases and said they expected July 19 to bring "further waves of infections, hospitalisations and deaths".

The statement of "concerns" from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) subgroup on July 14 also reveals that the modellers believed the ending of restrictions may have to be reversed.
Click to expand...

Conversation

Freddie Sayers
[MENTION=10773]fred[/MENTION]diesayers
Prof Neil Ferguson tells Politico:

“I’m quite happy to be wrong if it’s wrong in the right direction.”

But why is making overly pessimistic forecasts an error in the right direction? The fact that gov scientists think that way has enormous consequences.
 




dazzer6666

dazzer6666

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Mar 27, 2013
52,497
Burgess Hill
Kinky Gerbils said:
Conversation

Freddie Sayers
[MENTION=10773]fred[/MENTION]diesayers
Prof Neil Ferguson tells Politico:

“I’m quite happy to be wrong if it’s wrong in the right direction.”

But why is making overly pessimistic forecasts an error in the right direction? The fact that gov scientists think that way has enormous consequences.
Click to expand...

I think he revels in it……..I completely get that modelling will predict some grim outcomes (and much better ones), that’s the point. What’s lost is any balance - the extreme/pessimistic end of the scale is what he seems to delight in promoting, and the media jump on it.
 




e77

e77

Well-known member
May 23, 2004
7,268
Worthing
Kinky Gerbils said:
As it stands looks like the government called it correctly on the 19th and on personal responsibility on masks

This of course could change!
Click to expand...

Can only speak for myself but the Health Secretary suggesting 100,000 cases a day did somewhat shape my views on the subject.
 




F

Fat Boy Fat

New member
Aug 21, 2020
1,077
Interesting to see how dead this sub forum has become, clearly Covid is now old news and everyone just wants to know how to book their foreign holiday or how to get into The Amex!
 


B

Billy the Fish

Technocrat
Oct 18, 2005
17,502
Haywards Heath
Fat Boy Fat said:
Interesting to see how dead this sub forum has become, clearly Covid is now old news and everyone just wants to know how to book their foreign holiday or how to get into The Amex!
Click to expand...

Nothing much to talk about now, I assume most have had the vaccine and are getting on with their lives.

I can think of a few posters, recently very quiet, who might pipe up if cases rise again :lolol:
 


F

Fat Boy Fat

New member
Aug 21, 2020
1,077
Billy the Fish said:
Nothing much to talk about now, I assume most have had the vaccine and are getting on with their lives.

I can think of a few posters, recently very quiet, who might pipe up if cases rise again :lolol:
Click to expand...

The thing that concerns me is those doom and gloom merchants may have inadvertently caused a backlash situation whereby things ain't so bad as predicted and those who still need help, like the clinically vulnerable, are now largely forgotten by those that just see rapidly diminishing case numbers.
 




e77

e77

Well-known member
May 23, 2004
7,268
Worthing
Fat Boy Fat said:
The thing that concerns me is those doom and gloom merchants may have inadvertently caused a backlash situation whereby things ain't so bad as predicted and those who still need help, like the clinically vulnerable, are now largely forgotten by those that just see rapidly diminishing case numbers.
Click to expand...

I think the Health Secretary practically guarenteing 100,000 cases a day had more impact than anyone on NSC on that front.
 




F

Fat Boy Fat

New member
Aug 21, 2020
1,077
e77 said:
I think the Health Secretary practically guarenteing 100,000 cases a day had more impact than anyone on NSC on that front.
Click to expand...

To be honest I was thinking less Crodo and more off piste and had my eye on the modellers and the likes of Prof Ferguson, with their Armageddon forecasts and of course Mr Javid, who has played a blinder since becoming Health Secretary, even taking one for the team and catching Covid, just to prove we shouldn’t “cower” from it...
 






beorhthelm

beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
35,313
Javid was playing the Scotty Principle when he regurgitated the high end estimates, as it was prudent to do so.
 




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