Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

Green Cross Code Man · Apr 8, 2020

Mellotron said:
I’m confused - worldometers saying that Spain reported 510 new deaths today - perhaps the others on top were from previous days and is the weekend catch up of reporting?

I think [MENTION=365]Napper[/MENTION] was referring to Tuesday's figures which showed a rebound from the weekend, something like 750 odd. 510 new deaths? That is 'good' news indeed, respectfully.

Edit: I should have read further back on the thread, I understand there is confusion now.

Robdinho · Apr 8, 2020

WATFORD zero said:
These statistics are some of the most worrying I have seen lately.

If this is correct (and it seems to be based on the same ONS data that is used by the Government for the daily totals), then the current rate of increase in deaths seems to be significantly understated. This is obviously down to the delay in reporting deaths, and there could be many perfectly valid reasons for this, but if this understatement is correct, it is not good at all.

View attachment 121913

View attachment 121914

I'd appreciate if anyone can point out something I've misinterpreted, or whether these figures are incorrect.

Positive spin: all it shows is that there is lag of approximately 3 days between the numbers being announced and the actual numbers, which is totally understandable in a crisis situation. But if the numbers are following the same curve then it doesn't mean a higher peak, just that we would hit the peak a few days before we know about it.

beorhthelm · Apr 8, 2020

WATFORD zero said:
These statistics are some of the most worrying I have seen lately.

If this is correct (and it seems to be based on the same ONS data that is used by the Government for the daily totals), then the current rate of increase in deaths seems to be significantly understated. This is obviously down to the delay in reporting deaths, and there could be many perfectly valid reasons for this, but if this understatement is correct, it is not good at all.
..

I'd appreciate if anyone can point out something I've misinterpreted, or whether these figures are incorrect.

not clear where the FT is getting the "NHS date of death numbers from". this NHS source is consistent with the numbers presented by government. (its off, but by a dozen or so not double as implied).

WATFORD zero · Apr 8, 2020

Robdinho said:
Positive spin: all it shows is that there is lag of approximately 3 days between the numbers being announced and the actual numbers, which is totally understandable in a crisis situation. But if the numbers are following the same curve then it doesn't mean a higher peak, just that we would hit the peak a few days before we know about it.

But, if I've read right, we started going over 1500 deaths a day 12 days ago, and that still hasn't fed through to the daily figures. (All the figures on the graph only go up to 27th March, as that is all the detail that has been released).

I would have expected that to be reflected in the daily figures by now. So I would estimate the delay to be significantly more than 3 days.

WATFORD zero · Apr 8, 2020

beorhthelm said:
not clear where the FT is getting the "NHS date of death numbers from". this NHS source is consistent with the numbers presented by government. (its off, but by a dozen or so not double as implied).

I believe it's based on the ONS detailed data that has now been published up to 27th March.

ManOfSussex · Apr 8, 2020

Green Cross Code Man said:
I think [MENTION=365]Napper[/MENTION] was referring to Tuesday's figures which showed a rebound from the weekend, something like 750 odd. 510 new deaths? That is 'good' news indeed, respectfully.

Edit: I should have read further back on the thread, I understand there is confusion now.

I was aware that yesterday's figures would go up because of reporting lags over the weekend, some other people I know were not. There is a lot of conjecture and conflicting things being said.

I'm aware of 13 people in a care home in Glasgow died in a week. I'm aware it's torn through care homes in France and Spain - what's the score across the rest of The UK in regards to care homes? :shrug:

I think I'll go and find one of those music threads and post up the video to 'Land of Confusion' by Genesis.

Eeyore · Apr 8, 2020

Honestly, these stats. It's become like a Premier League predictions competition. Although most of them look like they've been made up by FourFourTwo Magazine.

No-one knows how this will go. No-one.

Green Cross Code Man · Apr 8, 2020

WATFORD zero said:
But, if I've read right, we started going over 1500 deaths a day 12 days ago, and that still hasn't fed through to the daily figures. I would have expected that to be reflected by now. So I would estimate the delay to be significantly more than 3 days.

It wasn't over 1500 deaths a day. That was a cumulative total for coronavirus deaths.

WATFORD zero · Apr 8, 2020

Green Cross Code Man said:
It wasn't over 1500 deaths a day. That was a cumulative total for coronavirus deaths.

I've looked again, but still read it as daily totals, not cumulative, and over 1500 deaths on 27th March, 12 days ago.

It uses the word cumulative on the title and then says death by date on the graph. We were certainly way above 1500 cumulative on 27th March.

A1X · Apr 8, 2020

Pinkie Brown said:
Oh Geez. Conspiracy theorists & extreme religious wingnuts can be relied upon to display their naivety and/or idiocy. Lopestri is a Tory MP. So responsible.

View attachment 121908

Is it just me or all these cranks continually sharing articles from the Telegraph?

beorhthelm · Apr 8, 2020

WATFORD zero said:
I've looked again, but still read it as daily totals, not cumulative, and over 1500 deaths on 27th March, 12 days ago.

It uses the word cumulative on the title and then says death by date on the graph. We were certainly way above 1500 on 27th March.

it is cumulative. looking that the total announed series from NHS, to 27th Mar is 1695, which is ~ what the graph shows. i think they are simply representing the reports given, if there are errors in the earlier numbers they have been corrected. todays offical totals are consistent between NHS and Gov.

that is to say they probably were underreporting, which is being adjusted. the comparison is one data series made a time point to a later updated data series.

Harry Wilson's tackle · Apr 8, 2020

Just a quick update. I earlier made some negative comments about Patrick Vallance that were informed in part by my recollection that a colleague who worked for him some years ago thought he was a dick. I have just checked with my colleague who reports 'no, that was XXXXX. Patrick was excellent'. We are referring here to his management skills and his ability to design and analyse an experiment.

I am happy to retract my previous skeptical comments, and happy also to add that the ringing endorsement from my colleague (who is a real expert on designing and anlysing experiments, and processing numerical biological data) means that Vallance will have the right skill set to provide the best advice.

I am very pleased about all that.

The Wizard · Apr 8, 2020

828 England deaths, 70 Scotland, 33 wales. Northern Ireland not announced yet. Hopefully the new cases figure is more ‘encouraging’

blockhseagull · Apr 8, 2020

The Wizard said:
828 England deaths, 70 Scotland, 33 wales. Northern Ireland not announced yet. Hopefully the new cases figure is more ‘encouraging’

Whilst that is still higher than yesterday.... and I don’t like to use the word encouraging about any death toll.

The rate is slowing all be it gradually

ManOfSussex · Apr 8, 2020

The Wizard said:
828 England deaths, 70 Scotland, 33 wales. Northern Ireland not announced yet. Hopefully the new cases figure is more ‘encouraging’

I grimaced when I saw the Scottish figures earlier. Such a beautiful day today, but such a sad one. :down:

Green Cross Code Man · Apr 8, 2020

Harry Wilson's tackle said:
Just a quick update. I earlier made some negative comments about Patrick Vallance that were informed in part by my recollection that a colleague who worked for him some years ago thought he was a dick. I have just checked with my colleague who reports 'no, that was XXXXX. Patrick was excellent'. We are referring here to his management skills and his ability to design and analyse an experiment.

I am happy to retract my previous skeptical comments, and happy also to add that the ringing endorsement from my colleague (who is a real expert on designing and anlysing experiments, and processing numerical biological data) means that Vallance will have the right skill set to provide the best advice.

I am very pleased about all that.

That is good to know. Thanks for the update.

oldboyroy · Apr 8, 2020

931 in UK without N I devastating and hopefully the daily figures will start dropping as lockdown takes effect.. as far as new infections go surely the rate of them has to drop significantly over next few days to prove lockdown is working

Napper · Apr 8, 2020

blockhseagull said:
Whilst that is still higher than yesterday.... and I don’t like to use the word encouraging about any death toll.

The rate is slowing all be it gradually

is it ?

oldboyroy · Apr 8, 2020

Napper said:
is it ?

Assume the word slowing is compared to what they expected in the graphs they use my friend?

blockhseagull · Apr 8, 2020

Napper said:
is it ?

Yes just under 800 yesterday .... like I said it’s still rising

But it isn’t doubling every 2/3 days which is what was expected... because of the rate of infection 2 weeks ago (which was doubling every few days) the daily death toll was expected to be far higher currently

Got something to say or just want fewer pesky ads? Join us... 😊

Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

Wunt be druv

Well-known member

A. Virgo, Football Genius

Well-known member

Well-known member

We wunt be druv

Colonel Hee-Haw of Queen's Park

Wunt be druv

Well-known member

Well-known member

A. Virgo, Football Genius

Harry Wilson's Tackle

Well-known member

Well-known member

We wunt be druv

Wunt be druv

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Share this page