Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

Bozza · Mar 8, 2020

Italy is a country of 60m people and, even there, less than 6,000 cases have been identified. What's all the fuss about?

The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.

"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.

"One of the best health systems in the world, in Lombardy, is a step away from collapse," he said.

Oh.

PILTDOWN MAN · Mar 8, 2020

The Clamp said:
Not sure there’s any need for the personal insults but that’s up to you.
Sincerely hope your wife avoids the virus and all the best for her health.
I’m off out to mingle with the filthy masses, I’m gonna try and break my handshaking record today
All the best
TC

No insults chap.

Thanks for sincerity

The Clamp · Mar 8, 2020

Bozza said:
Italy is a country of 60m people and, even there, less than 6,000 cases have been identified. What's all the fuss about?

The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.

"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.

"One of the best health systems in the world, in Lombardy, is a step away from collapse," he said.

Oh.

To be fair, most of Italy is eternally on the brink of collapse. It comes as no surprise that it’s Italy that has the worst of it. Terribly inefficient systems and government.

dingodan · Mar 8, 2020

Green Cross Code Man said:
This thread is more polarised than ever. The Brexit mega thread surely has a rival.

Brexit is the end of the world, millions will "die", the economy will crash, if you aren't worried about Brexit it's because you don't care about vulnerable people.

But.

A worlwide lung infection pandemic which will likely infect millions and will (actually) kill at least 10's of thousands, possibly many more, and is in danger of (actually) bringing down international markets, that is just a storm in a tea cup. If you are worried about Coronavirus you are just an overreacting fool, everything is fine.

Some people are odd.

WATFORD zero · Mar 8, 2020

dingodan said:
Brexit is the end of the world, millions will "die", the economy will crash, if you aren't worried about Brexit it's because you don't care about vulnerable people.

But.

A worlwide lung infection pandemic which will likely infect millions and will (actually) kill at least 10's of thousands, possibly many more, that is just a storm in a tea cup. If you are worried about Coronavirus you are just an overreacting fool, everything is fine.

Some people are odd.

Hope this helps :thumbsup:

Pondicherry · Mar 8, 2020

Bozza said:
Italy is a country of 60m people and, even there, less than 6,000 cases have been identified. What's all the fuss about?

The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.

"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.

"One of the best health systems in the world, in Lombardy, is a step away from collapse," he said.

Oh.

The above is why this is a big issue and the fact that what happened / is happening in China was probably not the whole picture.

Lombardy, Italy’s welfare minister: "Every day we get 200 new people to the ER in critical conditions, which means every day we need to find 200 more hospital beds. […] the virus is spreading at an exceptional speed, faster than our predictions and than the data we got from China."

If the healthcare system is overwhelmed you case mortality rate will shoot up unfortunately. For information, the known case mortality rate currently in Italy is 28%. This will move, but this is the current rate.

WATFORD zero · Mar 8, 2020

Pondicherry said:
The above is why this is a big issue and the fact that what happened / is happening in China was probably not the whole picture.

Lombardy, Italy’s welfare minister: "Every day we get 200 new people to the ER in critical conditions, which means every day we need to find 200 more hospital beds. […] the virus is spreading at an exceptional speed, faster than our predictions and than the data we got from China."

If the healthcare system is overwhelmed you case mortality rate will shoot up unfortunately. For information, the known case mortality rate currently in Italy is 28%. This will move, but this is the current rate.

That sounds disproportionately high to all other figures I have seen quoted. Can I ask what the definition of 'known case mortality rate' is and the source for this statistic ? Thanks

knocky1 · Mar 8, 2020

Pondicherry said:
If the healthcare system is overwhelmed you case mortality rate will shoot up unfortunately. For information, the known case mortality rate currently in Italy is 28%. This will move, but this is the current rate.

The Italian Government are saying 4.25%. Someones got their stats wrong.....................

Notters · Mar 8, 2020

Bozza said:
Italy is a country of 60m people and, even there, less than 6,000 cases have been identified. What's all the fuss about?

The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.

"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.

"One of the best health systems in the world, in Lombardy, is a step away from collapse," he said.

Oh.

And Italy has an extra hospital bed per thousand people compared to the UK.

dingodan · Mar 8, 2020

Pondicherry said:
For information, the known case mortality rate currently in Italy is 28%. This will move, but this is the current rate.

Isn't it around 4%?

Of resolved cases it's about 40%, but you would expect that over time that will come down.

The Clamp · Mar 8, 2020

dingodan said:
Brexit is the end of the world, millions will "die", the economy will crash, if you aren't worried about Brexit it's because you don't care about vulnerable people.

But.

A worlwide lung infection pandemic which will likely infect millions and will (actually) kill at least 10's of thousands, possibly many more, and is in danger of (actually) bringing down international markets, that is just a storm in a tea cup. If you are worried about Coronavirus you are just an overreacting fool, everything is fine.

Some people are odd.

It’s almost as if some people are capable of differentiating one specific set of circumstances from another

dingodan · Mar 8, 2020

The Clamp said:
It’s almost as if some people are capable of differentiating one specific set of circumstances from another

I didn't suggest that you couldn't differentiate. You clearly can.

What I don't get it why the presumed harm vulnerable people faced over Brexit mattered to you greatly. But the demonstrable harm vulnerable people face from this, you don't seem to care, because "most people will be fine". I'm pretty sure if I had said about Brexit, "most people will be fine, let it run it's course", you would have spoken up for those who (supposedly) wouldn't be fine, wouldn't you?

Maybe this isn't "political" enough for you? Can't blame the tories so you don't give a shit?

Bakero · Mar 8, 2020

WATFORD zero said:
That sounds disproportionately high to all other figures I have seen quoted. Can I ask what the definition of 'known case mortality rate' is and the source for this statistic ? Thanks

The ~4% is based on death/total case. I presume the 28% is looking at resolved cases, as in how many recover v how many die.

Pondicherry · Mar 8, 2020

Happy to be corrected by those with more knowledge.

The latest figures I can see are for Italy are.

Known deaths: 233
Known recoveries: 589
Total population with known outcome:822
Known current case mortality rate is 233/822 x 100 = 28.3%

For those quoting 4% I believe that figure includes people with no known outcome. They may die or they may survive.

I can understand why governments don't want to highlight the 28% figure.

dingodan · Mar 8, 2020

Bakero said:
The ~4% is based on death/total case. I presume the 28% is looking at resolved cases, as in how many recover v how many die.

Yeah that's what I thought, although it's not a very informative stat, we will only really understand in a few weeks when the existing 6k cases are likely to be resolved, one way or another.

Kosh · Mar 8, 2020

I question all of the stats - the known cases bit is the flaw, I suspect given the ability of this virus to ‘travel’ there will be near millions of mild cases hitherto unidentified due to mild or very mild symptoms - this will almost certainly be the case. Ultimately the only figure we will know, is the amount of serious cases and deaths. It’s a very serious virus. It is however, no where near as deadly to fit younger people than the old and infirm. The problem being we have an ageing and increasingly infirm society, kept living with medication and treatment perhaps way beyond natural expectancy - this virus is a leveller and I regret to say will result in a substantial increase in flu mortality rate this year.

Publius Ovidius · Mar 8, 2020

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-51789355
[MENTION=144]goldstone[/MENTION]

The Italians are all panicking over absolutely nothing and their hospitals are lying abou5 this. Quick get over there and tell them it’s all bullshit mate.

The Clamp · Mar 8, 2020

dingodan said:
I didn't suggest that you couldn't differentiate. You clearly can.

What I don't get it why the presumed harm vulnerable people faced over Brexit mattered to you greatly. But the demonstrable harm vulnerable people face from this, you don't seem to care, because "most people will be fine". I'm pretty sure if I had said about Brexit, "most people will be fine, let it run it's course", you would have spoken up for those who (supposedly) wouldn't be fine, wouldn't you?

Maybe this isn't "political" enough for you? Can't blame the tories so you don't give a shit?

I believe I have “spoken up” for those who are vulnerable to the worst effects of the virus when I said “vulnerable people should be given priority”.

I don’t agree with the way the Coronavirus has been handled by the government and the media. Just as I don’t agree with the way Brexit has been handled by the government and media.

In both cases I have read and heard opinions and facts from both sides and made my mind up based on the scenarios put forward that I think are most likely to transpire.

I’m not sure how to respond to the “blaming the Tories (sic)” aspect of your post.

Nobby · Mar 8, 2020

The Clamp said:
Not sure there’s any need for the personal insults but that’s up to you.
Sincerely hope your wife avoids the virus and all the best for her health.
I’m off out to mingle with the filthy masses, I’m gonna try and break my handshaking record today
All the best
TC

See if you can put these word in some sort of order

Alright I’m Jack

Tom Hark Preston Park · Mar 8, 2020

The Clamp said:
I believe I have “spoken up” for those who are vulnerable to the worst effects of the virus when I said “vulnerable people should be given priority”.

I don’t agree with the way the Coronavirus has been handled by the government and the media. Just as I don’t agree with the way Brexit has been handled by the government and media.

In both cases I have read and heard opinions and facts from both sides and made my mind up based on the scenarios put forward that I think are most likely to transpire.

I’m not sure how to respond on the “blaming the Tories (sic)” aspect of your post.

Can only be a matter of time til Dominic Cummings tells his sock puppet BJ to repeat a mantra of Get Coronavirus Done at every broadcast opportunity

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