[Politics] Scotland / England Border

Pavilionaire · Oct 16, 2019

A recent poll showed the Scots favour independence over a no-deal Brexit by 54-46%.

45% - 35% also think they'll be better off as an independent country in the EU compared to staying in the UK after Brexit with 20% Don't Know.

I think back in 2014 the Scots were genuinely concerned that coming out of a strong UK economy and going it alone was a step too far, but the prospect of the UK doing badly because of Brexit has reduced the risk of independence.

I also think that the behaviour of the English Tories since 2016 would have put the Scots off - the resignation of Ruth Davison hasn't helped the Tory cause while last week's resignation from the party of former Scottish Labour Party leader Kezia Dugdale also reflects disenchantment with Corbyn.

It will be interesting to see whether Boris is prepared for a border in the Irish Sea because if he is then his commitment to the Union is in question and this will further spur the Scots on towards independence.

Jambo Seagull · Oct 16, 2019

I voted No in 2014. Not with any great enthusiasm. However I didn't think that the Yes vote were properly able to answer the fundamental question of what our currency would be and I wasn't impressed by Salmond et al saying we'll just use Sterling for the time bieng.

I voted to remain in 2016 with much more enthusiasm and was genuinely devastated when Leave won. I took the view before that vote that if Leave won then I would seriously have to re-consider my views on staying in the Union. I have continued to re-consider and am slowly coming round to the view that the only way forward is for Scotland to become independent and re-apply for membership of the EU. I'd be very happy to have the Euro and Schengen. Put simply, I just don't want to live in a country like post-Brexit UK.

It's going to be tough fiscally for us and I'm under no illusions about that. But that's infinitely better than be dictated to by Bojob, Rees-Mogg and all the other Brexit ERG nutters. In any event these lunatics care not a jot about Scotland. They are the English Nationalist Party in all but name. They believe in English superiority and exceptionalism. Good luck to them but I want no part of that, thanks very much.

I'd be very surprised if Scotland isn't independent by 2030. Ireland will be united long before then. Once Wales decides to get the hell out of Dodge the ENP will have had its way.

Hamilton · Oct 16, 2019

We do know that the EU already has borders with other countries? The NI situation is somewhat unique.

Tim Over Whelmed · Oct 16, 2019

PILTDOWN MAN said:
It will take years for an independent Scotland to join the EU. Added to which would they want them. They would be a poor addition.

Take out the vast amount of cash we drop in the coffers and then add another country that would probably feed the deficit, can't see them going for this, or rather Germany & France going for this.

blue-shifted · Oct 16, 2019

Jambo Seagull said:
I voted No in 2014. Not with any great enthusiasm. However I didn't think that the Yes vote were properly able to answer the fundamental question of what our currency would be and I wasn't impressed by Salmond et al saying we'll just use Sterling for the time bieng.

I voted to remain in 2016 with much more enthusiasm and was genuinely devastated when Leave won. I took the view before that vote that if Leave won then I would seriously have to re-consider my views on staying in the Union. I have continued to re-consider and am slowly coming round to the view that the only way forward is for Scotland to become independent and re-apply for membership of the EU. I'd be very happy to have the Euro and Schengen. Put simply, I just don't want to live in a country like post-Brexit UK.

It's going to be tough fiscally for us and I'm under no illusions about that. But that's infinitely better than be dictated to by Bojob, Rees-Mogg and all the other Brexit ERG nutters. In any event these lunatics care not a jot about Scotland. They are the English Nationalist Party in all but name. They believe in English superiority and exceptionalism. Good luck to them but I want no part of that, thanks very much.

I'd be very surprised if Scotland isn't independent by 2030. Ireland will be united long before then. Once Wales decides to get the hell out of Dodge the ENP will have had its way.

I'm sure there are loads who think like you.

I'll be very sorry for the union to end. The Tory right has managed to bugger up 300 years of friendship and co-operation in the last 3 years. And as you say, they couldn't care less

blue-shifted · Oct 16, 2019

Tim Over Whelmed said:
Take out the vast amount of cash we drop in the coffers and then add another country that would probably feed the deficit, can't see them going for this, or rather Germany & France going for this.

It's enthusiastically taken in impoverished Eastern European states. They've not before been concerned with the states balance of payments. There's no doubt in my mind Scotland's accession will be waved through

Triggaaar · Oct 16, 2019

Simster said:
Absolutely I agree with you for pulling up [MENTION=11928]vegster[/MENTION] for saying the Scots want independence.

But where you're wrong is to argue that by stating they don't.

We simply don't know whether the Scots want independence or not.

That's a bit silly, because that would mean we can't ever talk about what anyone wants, because there's always some time between when they were asked and when we're discussing it.

blue-shifted · Oct 16, 2019

Pavilionaire said:
A recent poll showed the Scots favour independence over a no-deal Brexit by 54-46%.

45% - 35% also think they'll be better off as an independent country in the EU compared to staying in the UK after Brexit with 20% Don't Know.

I think back in 2014 the Scots were genuinely concerned that coming out of a strong UK economy and going it alone was a step too far, but the prospect of the UK doing badly because of Brexit has reduced the risk of independence.

I also think that the behaviour of the English Tories since 2016 would have put the Scots off - the resignation of Ruth Davison hasn't helped the Tory cause while last week's resignation from the party of former Scottish Labour Party leader Kezia Dugdale also reflects disenchantment with Corbyn.

It will be interesting to see whether Boris is prepared for a border in the Irish Sea because if he is then his commitment to the Union is in question and this will further spur the Scots on towards independence.

Isn't his commitment to everything which isn't Boris in question?

Simster · Oct 16, 2019

Triggaaar said:
That's a bit silly, because that would mean we can't ever talk about what anyone wants, because there's always some time between when they were asked and when we're discussing it.

Not really, I'm half agreeing with you - I'm just disagreeing with the conclusion you've drawn as a counterargument. Nothing silly about that.

Or would it just be easier if we took the position that actually, you're never wrong (even when you clearly are)? :shrug:

beorhthelm · Oct 16, 2019

blue-shifted said:
It's enthusiastically taken in impoverished Eastern European states. They've not before been concerned with the states balance of payments. There's no doubt in my mind Scotland's accession will be waved through

"waved though" is going to be 2-3 years according to the EU, as reported during the last vote.

balance of payments has to be addressed for admission to the Euro, which they'll be expected to sign up to. so they'll be told to trim the spending, though not clear what outcome is if they dont (cant be kicked out, just told how naughty they are?)

Jambo Seagull · Oct 16, 2019

beorhthelm said:
"waved though" is going to be 2-3 years according to the EU, as reported during the last vote.

balance of payments has to be addressed for admission to the Euro, which they'll be expected to sign up to. so they'll be told to trim the spending, though not clear what outcome is if they dont (cant be kicked out, just told how naughty they are?)

I agree it's going to take two to three years to get in to the EU again but there is a genuine enthusiasm in Scotland for the European project and I think the EU would be very happy with a base in Scotland for a free trade deal with rUK if the Tories ever agree to one.

Triggaaar · Oct 16, 2019

Simster said:
Not really, I'm half agreeing with you - I'm just disagreeing with the conclusion you've drawn as a counterargument. Nothing silly about that.

It's not disagreeing in principle that I'm calling silly. You're saying that although the people of Scotland voted to remain, we can't assume they want to remain, because they voted in the past. So after every election, we can't assume people want the government they voted for, because they may have changed their mind since then. Unless you've got some time limit or something on this principle, then you're concluding that we never know what anyone wants.

Or would it just be easier if we took the position that actually, you're never wrong (even when you clearly are)?

Ah, so that's what this is about.

nicko31 · Oct 16, 2019

Pavilionaire said:
A recent poll showed the Scots favour independence over a no-deal Brexit by 54-46%.

45% - 35% also think they'll be better off as an independent country in the EU compared to staying in the UK after Brexit with 20% Don't Know.

I think back in 2014 the Scots were genuinely concerned that coming out of a strong UK economy and going it alone was a step too far, but the prospect of the UK doing badly because of Brexit has reduced the risk of independence.

I also think that the behaviour of the English Tories since 2016 would have put the Scots off - the resignation of Ruth Davison hasn't helped the Tory cause while last week's resignation from the party of former Scottish Labour Party leader Kezia Dugdale also reflects disenchantment with Corbyn.

It will be interesting to see whether Boris is prepared for a border in the Irish Sea because if he is then his commitment to the Union is in question and this will further spur the Scots on towards independence.

The problem is the Scots were told in 2014 they would be safer staying in UK as we were part of the EU. Brexit just 2 years later was the ultimate betrayal of trust, worse still the Scots voted by almost 1 to 2 against it.

Whilst I'd hate the break up of the UK, its hard to disagree with their desire to leave now if the Tories secure their little Englander Brexit,

Simster · Oct 16, 2019

Triggaaar said:
It's not disagreeing in principle that I'm calling silly. You're saying that although the people of Scotland voted to remain, we can't assume they want to remain, because they voted in the past. So after every election, we can't assume people want the government they voted for, because they may have changed their mind since then. Unless you've got some time limit or something on this principle, then you're concluding that we never know what anyone wants.

Ah, so that's what this is about.

After this reply I am done with this. You said "Except that their view is they don't want independence.", which could well be wrong. We simply don't know, because a) the last vote was very close (55v45) b) lots has happened since then (Brexit, an English Etonian toff in charge) and c) the nationalists have taken 60% of Scottish seats with just under half the vote.

It's not a controversial conclusion to draw, but for some reason you have taken issue with me for pointing this out to you. It is not hard to see why I might conclude that you will argue with a brick wall rather than ever admit you might be wrong.

So again, you're half right - it is about you being wrong. Or more accurately, it is about you being wrong but not being prepared to admit it.

vegster · Oct 16, 2019

Triggaaar said:
Except that their view is they don't want independence.

We won't know that unless they vote again now will we? I think I said that if they wanted out, good luck to them? I'm only basing my assumption that they want out on the fact that the Scottish electorate tend to vote overwhelmingly for the Scottish Nationalist Party in Holyrood and Westminster. A party whose 3 line whip is always " Independence ".

goldstone rocks · Oct 16, 2019

We need some perspective here

1) Scotland's population is smaller than the the county of Yorkshire in England. yes one county.
2) Scotland's notional debt is over 50% of the debt of the whole of the UK or 7% of Scotland's GDP. EU membership requires maximum of 3%. Good luck cutting down to 3% then with that then as it is worse than Cyprus and even Romania.
3) In 2018 Scotland, through the Barnett Formula, received £10881 per head compared to England £9080. They will have to make that difference up as well as reducing their deficit to 3% for EU membership. This will then stop the English subsidy of Scotland through the Barnett formula.
4) After independence, Scotland will need their own currency straight away. Continuing to use the £ will mean all their monetary policy is dictated by the Bank of England (the clue is in the name of the bank).
5) England, many years ago, had a currency called the groat. Scotland's new currency, really should be the SCroat the going rate for conversion being 2 balls to the SCroat at present but balls maybe devalued after independence leading 1 ball=1 SCroat which could be painful for the Scots to accept.

ALBION28 · Oct 16, 2019

As I live in Doncaster I am wondering whether I get a vote in any Scottish independence referendum? Doncaster is still, in accordance with the Treaty of Durham, part of Scotland.

Whoislloydy · Oct 16, 2019

stewart12 said:
hmm that would mean giving a fair chunk of English land to Scotland

Yeah but it's northern land...

Pavilionaire · Oct 16, 2019

goldstone rocks said:
We need some perspective here

1) Scotland's population is smaller than the the county of Yorkshire in England. yes one county.
2) Scotland's notional debt is over 50% of the debt of the whole of the UK or 7% of Scotland's GDP. EU membership requires maximum of 3%. Good luck cutting down to 3% then with that then as it is worse than Cyprus and even Romania.
3) In 2018 Scotland, through the Barnett Formula, received £10881 per head compared to England £9080. They will have to make that difference up as well as reducing their deficit to 3% for EU membership. This will then stop the English subsidy of Scotland through the Barnett formula.
4) After independence, Scotland will need their own currency straight away. Continuing to use the £ will mean all their monetary policy is dictated by the Bank of England (the clue is in the name of the bank).
5) England, many years ago, had a currency called the groat. Scotland's new currency, really should be the SCroat the going rate for conversion being 2 balls to the SCroat at present but balls maybe devalued after independence leading 1 ball=1 SCroat which could be painful for the Scots to accept.

1) If Scotland joined the EU then with a population of 5.425 million they'd be 19th out of 28, with Ireland, Croatia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Latvia, Estonia, Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta all below them.
2) I can't see the rest of the UK foisting half of the UK debt on Scotland were it to leave. It might be a hard sell especially when the ERG have said let's leave the EU without paying our £39 billion divorce bill, no to to mention the UK doing very well out of Scottish North Sea Oil for the last 50-odd years.
3) This Barnett Formula perpetuates a master/servant mentality in many minds on both sides of the border, and can be perceived as unjust. It is outdated and unhelpful.
4) After Brexit I think Scotland is now more likely to accept taking the Euro. If you're going to reject union with England then severing ties with the Bank of England has to be part of that process.
5) Moot point - see above.

Triggaaar · Oct 16, 2019

vegster said:
We won't know that unless they vote again now will we?

Sure, but how long after they vote will you say we don't know again?

I'm only basing my assumption that they want out on the fact that the Scottish electorate tend to vote overwhelmingly for the Scottish Nationalist Party in Holyrood and Westminster. A party whose 3 line whip is always " Independence ".

They are indeed the biggest party, but they got less than half the vote. It's also worth noting that they didn't use to get that much of the vote, and as a voter you could be forgiven for thinking post referendum that you could vote for them for other reasons, as the subject of independence had already been settled.

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