[Football] Newcastle 0.05 xG v Leicester

Bozza · Sep 30, 2019

Stat / xG fans - have you ever seen lower in a Premier League game?

I can't believe even a Hiughton team provided so little thread in any game.

Source: https://understat.com/match/11710

LVGull · Sep 30, 2019

Bozza said:
Stat / xG fans - have you ever seen lower in a Premier League game?

I can't believe even a Hiughton team provided so little thread in any game.

View attachment 115761

Source: https://understat.com/match/11710

What does this stat mean?

AmexRuislip · Sep 30, 2019

Up to 11 seconds is obvious for the poor feckers :lolol:

dazzer6666 · Sep 30, 2019

We had our lowest of the season so far on Saturday too......and our xG in the first half was in fact zero I think (can't find it now but there was a tweet at HT stating it)

Edit - here it is

[tweet]1177958744988295168[/tweet]

hans kraay fan club · Sep 30, 2019

dazzer6666 said:
We had our lowest of the season so far on Saturday too......and our xG in the first half was in fact zero I think (can't find it now but there was a tweet at HT stating it)

Surely even a gentle back pass to the keeper's feet, carries a goal threat (just) above zero?

(Just ask Hugo Loris)

Bozza · Sep 30, 2019

LVGull said:
What does this stat mean?

Essentially each chance a side creates is given a score from 0.00 (won't score) to 1.00 (absolute certainty of scoring) in terms of likelihood of scoring from that chance so, for example, a chance with an xG of 0.5 would mean you'd expect it to be scored 1 in 2 times. Various factors are used to assess xG, such as where the player is relative to the goal, whether he's shooitng or heading etc. Chances are cross-referenced against a very large dataset of prior games, chances and whether a goal was scored or not.

I think a penalty is given an xG of around 0.8 as around 80% of penalties are scored.

There's a good intro here: https://www.infogol.net/en/blog/education/an-introduction-to-expected-goals-11112016

In the above Leicester v Newcastle illustration the sum of all chances created by each side in the game are summed to give a team total. Essentially, it's saying that on average Newcastle created another chances to score 1/20th of a goal.

Some think it's a load of bollocks, others less so. I suspect Tony Bloom is a big advocate of xG. Looking back at the Hyypia era and the club persevering with him, was because they thought we were being unlucky ard our luck would turn. I would think xG was part of their assessment of our perceived luck.

dazzer6666 · Sep 30, 2019

hans kraay fan club said:
Surely even a gentle back pass to the keeper's feet, carries a goal threat (just) above zero?

(Just ask Hugo Loris)

Not for us.........have found and linked tweet above now. Literally 0.00 xG at HT

Bozza · Sep 30, 2019

Here's our xG from Saturday. I've highlighted the Burn header that hit the bar, as it has been determined as being our best chance with an xG of 0.38 - so roughly 1 time in 3 we should be scoring from that.

View attachment 115765

Gazwag · Sep 30, 2019

hans kraay fan club said:
Surely even a gentle back pass to the keeper's feet, carries a goal threat (just) above zero?

(Just ask Hugo Loris)

Well the through ball to Maupay which their keeper got to with his chest just outside the area a few inches before Maupay did could have easily rebounded kindly and presented us with a goal

zefarelly · Sep 30, 2019

LVGull said:
What does this stat mean?

nothing to me. :tumble:

hans kraay fan club · Sep 30, 2019

Bozza said:
Essentially each chance a side creates is given a score from 0.00 (won't score) to 1.00 (absolute certainty of scoring) in terms of likelihood of scoring from that chance so, for example, a chance with an xG of 0.5 would mean you'd expect it to be scored 1 in 2 times. Various factors are used to assess xG, such as where the player is relative to the goal, whether he's shooitng or heading etc. Chances are cross-referenced against a very large dataset of prior games, chances and whether a goal was scored or not.
as part of their assessment of our perceived luck.

Out of interest, do you happen to know whether they factor in WHO the chance falls to?

It is all very well, the dataset decreeing that an unmarked header for 6 yards out, gives you n% chance of scoring a goal, but in reality the genuine % likelihood of that specific chance being converted, by Glenn Murray, or by Jurgen Locadia, is very different

zefarelly · Sep 30, 2019

hans kraay fan club said:
Out of interest, do you happen to know whether they factor in WHO the chance falls to?

It is all very well, the dataset decreeing that an unmarked header for 6 yards out, gives you n% chance of scoring a goal, but in reality the genuine % likelihood of that specific chance being converted, by Glenn Murray, or by Jurgen Locadia, is very different

yes . . .30% or 0.00000147%

dazzer6666 · Sep 30, 2019

hans kraay fan club said:
Out of interest, do you happen to know whether they factor in WHO the chance falls to?

It is all very well, the dataset decreeing that an unmarked header for 6 yards out, gives you n% chance of scoring a goal, but in reality the genuine % likelihood of that specific chance being converted, by Glenn Murray, or by Jurgen Locadia, is very different

No, the player it falls to isn't considered when calculating xG, but it's a useful measure of a player's ability in front of goal as you can compare their no. of goals with their xG ratio. It's a measure of the quality of the chances created rather than whether they were put away.

Here you go :

https://www.sportskeeda.com/footbal...re-they-a-good-measure-of-player-performances

Yoda · Sep 30, 2019

Our worst from last season:

0.14 Vs Tottenham (away)
0.13 Vs Palace (away)
0.12 Vs Wolves (away)

Edit:
Oh! Crap!
Liverpool 4-0 Brighton (May 13 2018)
xG
Liverpool 3.51 - 0.04 Brighton

hans kraay fan club · Sep 30, 2019

dazzer6666 said:
No, the player it falls to isn't considered when calculating xG, but it's a useful measure of a player's ability in front of goal as you can compare their no. of goals with their xG ratio. It's a measure of the quality of the chances created rather than whether they were put away.

Here you go :

https://www.sportskeeda.com/footbal...re-they-a-good-measure-of-player-performances

I'd argue that this is a bit wrong. Let's say you are a player out wide, with the ball at your feet - there's two defenders in the middle, with your striker about to run between them. If that striker is Andy Carroll, or Glenn Murray, there is a type of ball you can put in that creates a genuine goal threat, that simply isn't the same, if your striker is a nippy little chap, who has no chance of getting up high enough to win the battle, or if he does, to head that ball down and into the goal.

dazzer6666 · Sep 30, 2019

hans kraay fan club said:
I'd argue that this is a bit wrong. Let's say you are a player out wide, with the ball at your feet - there's two defenders in the middle, with your striker about to run between them. If that striker is Andy Carroll, or Glenn Murray, there is a type of ball you can put in that creates a genuine goal threat, that simply isn't the same, if your striker is a nippy little chap, who has no chance of getting up high enough to win the battle, or if he does, to head that ball down and into the goal.

Not necessarily wrong, but just a factor that's (possibly ?) not taken into account.............sure the way the data is calculated will continue to get refined.

Stat Brother · Sep 30, 2019

Yoda said:
Our worst from last season:

0.14 Vs Tottenham (away)
0.13 Vs Palace (away)
0.12 Vs Wolves (away)

Edit:
Oh! Crap!
Liverpool 4-0 Brighton (May 13 2018)
xG
Liverpool 3.51 - 0.04 Brighton

The game we won 2-1? (Oh crisis of confidence was it 2-1 or 2-0?)

blue-shifted · Sep 30, 2019

Stat Brother said:
The game we won 2-1? (Oh crisis of confidence was it 2-1 or 2-0?)

Oh to have a player who can smash one in the top corner from outside the box to grab three points in a vital relegation game against bitter rivals.

Bozza · Sep 30, 2019

Stat Brother said:
The game we won 2-1? (Oh crisis of confidence was it 2-1 or 2-0?)

Yep. Murray's chance had an xG of 0.05 and Knockaert's 0.03.

The only other chances registered were Stephens (0.02) and your boy Ali J who seems to have shot from somewhere near the half-way line for an xG of 0.01.

Stat Brother · Sep 30, 2019

blue-shifted said:
Oh to have a player who can smash one in the top corner from outside the box to grab three points in a vital relegation game

Once every 100 attempts.

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