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[Politics] Johnson or Hunt?

Who would you vote for as next leader of the Tory party and Prime Minister?

  • Boris Johnson

    Votes: 86 41.1%

  • Jeremy Hunt

    Votes: 123 58.9%
  • Total voters
    209
  • Poll closed .








Simster

Simster

"the man's an arse"
Jul 7, 2003
54,207
Surrey
wellquickwoody said:
Yes it is. Get your FACTS straight. You, or anybody else, do NOT vote for a Prime Minister, you vote for someone to be a local MP. Numbers of MPs added up etc etc and you get a Government, who is the leader of that entity in the future is entirely immaterial at the point you place you vote into the ballot box. Do you get it yet?
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I don't disagree, but seeing as you didn't recognise Brian Fantana's quote as being that from Boris Johnson's article in The Spectator a few years ago when Brown was foisted upon us, I'd pipe down with self-righteous horseshit if I were you. Regardless of the facts of who we vote for, the man is a total hypocrite for doing exactly what he was whinging about over a decade ago.
 


Bob!

Bob!

Coffee Buyer
Jul 5, 2003
11,137
Audax said:
The gap's closed again recently, but the long term polling does suggest that Remain is the majority opinion (https://www.politico.eu/2019-european-elections/united-kingdom/#93494). The gap was as high as 10% in May this year, but narrowed to 5% right before the EU elections (I think, to be expected). Only a couple of polls since then, so it's remained (excuse the pun) at 5% since then (one poll slightly narrowed than that, most recent poll wider). Definite long term trend towards Remain overall. But, until it gets tested in a national vote, we simply won't know - the polling is still close enough that error margins could be hiding the truth (as they so often have in the last decade in the UK).




Latest polling average has the Tories and Labour neck-and-neck on 25% and 24%. Brexit Party and Lib Dems likewise neck-and-neck on 19% and 18%. Labour's generally been ahead of the Tories since April, however it's closed up now as the Tories have regained some support from the Brexit Party. I'd hazard a guess they'll gain some more back now that Boris will be PM, but may lose some others (most likely to the Lib Dems) for the same reason. Will be interesting to see what the balance is.

Lib Dems have, so far this year, actually done better on election day than they've been polling pre-election. The opposite has happened for the Brexit Party - their support softened on election day (yes, they had a very successful EU election day, but it wasn't as strong as pre-polling suggested it might be).

A lot hinges on how Boris handles everything from here. I can see a General Election before the end of the year. If that happens, and if current polling holds, then we *will not* have a majority government of any colour. What's more likely is that we get a pro-Remain "government" that crosses party lines in defiance of party leadership that stays just long enough to see a 2nd Ref held and enforced before dissolving for yet another GE. All depends on how many seats the Lib Dems can muster, how strongly Corbyn can stomach campaigning pro-Ref, and how the vote splits between Tory and Brexit Party. A split pro-Brexit vote should produce a pro-Remain coalition of some sort, given that we're already seeing a willingness from the explicitly pro-Remain parties to cooperate (see Greens and Plaid Cymru stepping aside to make it easier for the Lib Dems for the Brecon byelection).
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But, I would suggest we are likely to see a pre-election pact between the Brexit Party and the Tory Party, So a lot would depend on Labours GE position on remain, and whether they would enter into any pre-election pacts with Lib dem in particular.

If not, it will be the Remain vote that splinters and Tory Brexit Majority.
 






London Pompous

London Pompous

Active member
Feb 16, 2008
624
Would rather have Adam Johnson that Boris.
 




wellquickwoody

wellquickwoody

Many More Voting Years
NSC Patron
Aug 10, 2007
13,624
Melbourne
the right footed denilson said:
That's how our government is formed. It's not a democracy.
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It is part of the democratic process that the UK has used for at least a hundred years, if not double that. People being upset that it does not suit THEIR agenda right now are ignoring protocol, and the rule of law.
 






M

Mayonaise

Well-known member
May 25, 2014
2,114
Haywards Heath
I would rather become the 51st state of the USA than tolerate British politics right now - even with their wan*er in charge.

The bloke will never re-unite this country but the bigger point is that he couldn't actually care less.

How did it come to this?
 






Thunder Bolt

Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
Aug 18, 2009
65,503
Beside the seaside, beside the sea
Mayonaise said:
I would rather become the 51st state of the USA than tolerate British politics right now - even with their wan*er in charge.

The bloke will never re-unite this country but the bigger point is that he couldn't actually care less.

How did it come to this?
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That’s exactly what he has in mind.
 








Audax

Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
2,941
Uckfield
Bob! said:
But, I would suggest we are likely to see a pre-election pact between the Brexit Party and the Tory Party, So a lot would depend on Labours GE position on remain, and whether they would enter into any pre-election pacts with Lib dem in particular.

If not, it will be the Remain vote that splinters and Tory Brexit Majority.
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That would imply a pro-No Deal agreement, in theory. In that case, I think you'd see the Tory vote suffer more than the pact as a whole would benefit - I'm firmly of the belief that there's a significant number of Pro-Brexit voters out there who would vote Remain in opposition to a No-Deal Brexit. So you could actually see a significant strengthening of the Lib Dem vote share in that instance.

There's a lot of potential permutations out there if we do have a GE before year end. One possibility is a re-run of the EU election, with Brexit Party and Lib Dems taking majority share. Under the current FPP system I doubt that would translate to either of them claiming 100+ seats each, though, so the result could be the nation finally waking up to the fact that FPP is a broken system.
 


R

ROSM

Well-known member
Dec 26, 2005
6,213
Just far enough away from LDC
So we now have a brexiteer in charge of brexit. No more blame, no more denials. Anything now is his fault.....actually believe the chances of brexit not happening have now increased
 




nicko31

nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
17,608
Gods country fortnightly
ROSM said:
So we now have a brexiteer in charge of brexit. No more blame, no more denials. Anything now is his fault.....actually believe the chances of brexit not happening have now increased
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When he fails, they'll say he was a remainer all along...
 




Trufflehound

Trufflehound

Re-enfranchised
Aug 5, 2003
14,107
The democratic and free EU
ROSM said:
So we now have a brexiteer in charge of brexit. No more blame, no more denials. Anything now is his fault.....actually believe the chances of brexit not happening have now increased
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You don't seriously believe that will happen, do you?
 




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