[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - the staying up tracker - season 2019-2020 Game 38 UPDATE

BeHereNow · Jun 23, 2020

Going by the teams below us and their fixtures, I don’t see them picking up enough points to go above us if we stay on 33. Well, Watford might, but I don’t see us losing every game and I wouldn’t be surprised if we won at least 3.

So, I think we are staying up already

Psychobilly freakout · Jun 23, 2020

BeHereNow said:
Going by the teams below us and their fixtures, I don’t see them picking up enough points to go above us if we stay on 33. Well, Watford might, but I don’t see us losing every game and I wouldn’t be surprised if we won at least 3.

So, I think we are staying up already

I don’t mean to be a party pooper, BUT.....

The last day of the season is on my birthday, and I don’t have a good record on my birthday, I never get what I want, usually there is an argument or fight, and then I go to bed early in a sulk......

Plus remember this is the Albion, we are on about, we always do things the hard way, and we’ve started as though “we’ve got this”....... in reality, we never fail to surprise or surpass previous deeds......

I fully expect relegation will, come down to Sunday 26th when Maupay smashes in another 95th minute winner at Burnley just as an airplane flies over the ground trailing a banner “Freakouts Birthday Matters, love the Brighton squad” to condemn Villa and Bournemouth along with already relegated Norwich.......

A boy can dream.....

BeHereNow · Jun 24, 2020

Psychobilly freakout said:
I don’t mean to be a party pooper, BUT.....

The last day of the season is on my birthday, and I don’t have a good record on my birthday, I never get what I want, usually there is an argument or fight, and then I go to bed early in a sulk......

Plus remember this is the Albion, we are on about, we always do things the hard way, and we’ve started as though “we’ve got this”....... in reality, we never fail to surprise or surpass previous deeds......

I fully expect relegation will, come down to Sunday 26th when Maupay smashes in another 95th minute winner at Burnley just as an airplane flies over the ground trailing a banner “Freakouts Birthday Matters, love the Brighton squad” to condemn Villa and Bournemouth along with already relegated Norwich.......

A boy can dream.....

Would love to see Bournemouth and Villa go down, think we’ll be leaving them, Watford and West Ham to worry about going down on the last day though.

Although, your scenario would be sweet, but also incredibly risky

Bold Seagull · Jun 24, 2020

Giraffe said:
Yes you are quite right. I have given myself a good talking to, so here you go.

Just one point behind now, the closest we have been since 1st February. Lovely stuff. On tonight's first half form, I wouldn't bet against us getting a result against Man Utd either.

Those last 3 blues are very impressive. We all felt very flat after the Palace debacle, but 5 points from Wolves and Leicester away, Arsenal home is a very very impressive return from the team, full of fight, resilience and a fair bit of playing well too.

We've turned the ManUtd game into a free hit, we're playing with a bit of confidence, agree may well get something from that too.

Stumpy Tim · Jun 24, 2020

There was always going to be one team in relegation trouble who would pull away after the break. I´m slightly surprised it´s us!

Reddleman · Jun 24, 2020

Also I hadn’t really picked up on the fact we have only lost one of our last 7 games. There was so much noise about us not winning in 2020 that fact has been overlooked. All those draws do start to add up and are why we are where we are.

Bold Seagull · Jun 24, 2020

Reddleman said:
Also I hadn’t really picked up on the fact we have only lost one of our last 7 games. There was so much noise about us not winning in 2020 that fact has been overlooked. All those draws do start to add up and are why we are where we are.

You’re quite right, 6 points above West Ham and Bournemouth, 6 more draws than both of them. Also you can see it in our play, we believed last night we could go to Leicester and take the game to them, which we did, but when the tide turned you could see we were also going to fight for every ball to earn a point. Trossard was a terrier when he came on, from down defending our box to supporting up front. Summed up how much this team are prepared to give. Even when it was getting to bleak predictions after Palace, I still felt the spirit has been very good. Give Potter his credit, they’ve come back with a few new ideas, fresh impetus, and from what I’ve seen we’re one of the teams that has used the down time to really good affect.

Tony Towner's Fridge · Jun 24, 2020

Bold Seagull said:
You’re quite right, 6 points above West Ham and Bournemouth, 6 more draws than both of them. Also you can see it in our play, we believed last night we could go to Leicester and take the game to them, which we did, but when the tide turned you could see we were also going to fight for every ball to earn a point. Trossard was a terrier when he came on, from down defending our box to supporting up front. Summed up how much this team are prepared to give. Even when it was getting to bleak predictions after Palace, I still felt the spirit has been very good. Give Potter his credit, they’ve come back with a few new ideas, fresh impetus, and from what I’ve seen we’re one of the teams that has used the down time to really good affect.

Good point well made. Add the fact that we now have another serious quality attacking midfielder in MacAllister and have an exciting dynamo in Lamptey and I think it points to a good conclusion to this season and an exciting next season.

TNBA

TTF

Peter Grummit · Jun 24, 2020

I thought we needed two wins and two draws - 8 points - post lockdown to be comfortable.

We're halfway there and I suspect the only thing that will lead to trouble will be if the players think we've done enough already. I don't think they will. Potter has been excellent tactically and motivationally.

Some teams have struggled mentally to deal with the rather different challenge that empty stadia offer. West Ham, Burnley, Sheffield. We have been on it.

If we keep up this form, we should pick up points against Norwich, Newcastle, Burnley, Southampton. The other games are free hits. United have to play twice before we play them next Tuesday, and given the heat tonight and the increased role fitness is playing, that could be to our advantage.

PG

Giraffe · Jun 24, 2020

Revised predicted finish after tonight's games:

15 - Brighton 39
16 - Watford 39
17 - West Ham 38
----------------------------
18 - Bournemouth 33
19 - Aston Villa 32
20 Norwich 31

Super Steve Earle · Jun 24, 2020

Giraffe said:
Revised predicted finish after tonight's games:

15 - Brighton 39
16 - Watford 39
17 - West Ham 38
----------------------------
18 - Bournemouth 33
19 - Aston Villa 32
20 Norwich 31

You do realise you are predicting we are safe already?

sparkie · Jun 24, 2020

Giraffe said:
Revised predicted finish after tonight's games:

15 - Brighton 39
16 - Watford 39
17 - West Ham 38
----------------------------
18 - Bournemouth 33
19 - Aston Villa 32
20 Norwich 31

*Like*

It won't be far off that I think.

BeHereNow · Jun 24, 2020

Giraffe said:
Revised predicted finish after tonight's games:

15 - Brighton 39
16 - Watford 39
17 - West Ham 38
----------------------------
18 - Bournemouth 33
19 - Aston Villa 32
20 Norwich 31

Pretty much what I said, although I think we will get 42 points and West Ham with a few less.

Stato · Jun 24, 2020

Peter Grummit said:
Potter has been excellent tactically and motivationally.

I have been wondering whether Graham Potter has already done a lot of things that he needed to do to best equip his squad during the window that the break has given him. All the analysis of his style and the interviews with him that I have read seem to focus on his wanting to maximise the opportunities of each individual, focusing on making yourself the best equipped you can be to achieve personal bests. If this approach has been applied during lockdown, I would think that he and his coaching team would have been in regular contact with each squad member supporting them to achieve bespoke programmes, before coming back together to focus on joint objectives.

I also suspect that his open-mindedness and imaginative approach to managing a group would have been a strength in unprecedented circumstances. There have been a couple of comments from players about the amount of hard work they have all done in the window and one thing that seems already apparent is Aaron Connolly looking a little stronger and more difficult to push around in the game and a bit he has played so far.

The potential advantages available to a manager allowed to make more changes have obviously been given consideration and Potter seems like he will seek to maximise these and make wide use of the whole squad in what has pretty much become tournament football. The squad looks better equipped than some others to cope with the games coming around so quickly. You would think that, until he gets suspended, Dunk will play all games, and that, if fit Ryan will play, but everyone else is probably interchangeable with someone of a similar standard. In the present circumstances, this would seem to be preferable to having a very good first eleven and weaker backup players.

Weststander · Jun 24, 2020

Giraffe said:
Revised predicted finish after tonight's games:

15 - Brighton 39
16 - Watford 39
17 - West Ham 38
----------------------------
18 - Bournemouth 33
19 - Aston Villa 32
20 Norwich 31

Or, West Ham carry on being awful, ending on similar points to Villa and Bmuff.

Perkino · Jun 25, 2020

Stato said:
I have been wondering whether Graham Potter has already done a lot of things that he needed to do to best equip his squad during the window that the break has given him. All the analysis of his style and the interviews with him that I have read seem to focus on his wanting to maximise the opportunities of each individual, focusing on making yourself the best equipped you can be to achieve personal bests. If this approach has been applied during lockdown, I would think that he and his coaching team would have been in regular contact with each squad member supporting them to achieve bespoke programmes, before coming back together to focus on joint objectives.

I also suspect that his open-mindedness and imaginative approach to managing a group would have been a strength in unprecedented circumstances. There have been a couple of comments from players about the amount of hard work they have all done in the window and one thing that seems already apparent is Aaron Connolly looking a little stronger and more difficult to push around in the game and a bit he has played so far.

The potential advantages available to a manager allowed to make more changes have obviously been given consideration and Potter seems like he will seek to maximise these and make wide use of the whole squad in what has pretty much become tournament football. The squad looks better equipped than some others to cope with the games coming around so quickly. You would think that, until he gets suspended, Dunk will play all games, and that, if fit Ryan will play, but everyone else is probably interchangeable with someone of a similar standard. In the present circumstances, this would seem to be preferable to having a very good first eleven and weaker backup players.

Our squad is very competitive, We have 1 great goalkeeper plus the captain and then a squad full of players who can compete. None of our substitutions particularly strengthen or weaken us allowing Potter to pick a side based on tactics and formation. Equally as fans we can never agree on a line up so I think a compressed season of 9 games in 30-40 days works in our favour over several other squads. I expect to see most players rotated in and out of line ups and match day squads over the remaining games

LlcoolJ · Jun 25, 2020

Weststander said:
Or, West Ham carry on being awful, ending on similar points to Villa and Bmuff.

I did the predictor thing after the Arsenal game. Came up with a pretty similar outcome EXCEPT West Ham did a lot worse and it came down to the last day for them and Villa.

I had us losing to Leicester btw. Tried to be as unbiased and realistic as possible. But 33/34 points was enough to stay up (and we finished 15th).

I've had another look and I really cannot see where the points can come from for 2 of West Ham / Plucky / Villa (plus Watford who will be safe) to overtake us.

No chickens counted, but we are in the driving seat now and I completely agree with what a Stato has said re Potter and the preparations by the coaches and the squad. :albion2:

Giraffe · Jun 25, 2020

LlcoolJ said:
I did the predictor thing after the Arsenal game. Came up with a pretty similar outcome EXCEPT West Ham did a lot worse and it came down to the last day for them and Villa.

I had us losing to Leicester btw. Tried to be as unbiased and realistic as possible. But 33/34 points was enough to stay up (and we finished 15th).

I've had another look and I really cannot see where the points can come from for 2 of West Ham / Plucky / Villa (plus Watford who will be safe) to overtake us.

No chickens counted, but we are in the driving seat now and I completely agree with what a Stato has said re Potter and the preparations by the coaches and the squad.

The West Ham thing is interesting because they have Villa and Watford at home. That therefore means this prediction method gives West Ham 3 points in both, and a point for the others.

Therefore if West Ham don't win there is a swing away from them. Their survival more or less rests on them winning one or both. They are also predicted to beat Burnley at home, so I'd say they are sitting above the relegation zone cacking themselves based on current form. Just not sure Bournemouth or Villa are good enough to catch them.

Uh_huh_him · Jun 25, 2020

Giraffe said:
Revised predicted finish after tonight's games:

15 - Brighton 39
16 - Watford 39
17 - West Ham 38
----------------------------
18 - Bournemouth 33
19 - Aston Villa 32
20 Norwich 31

One of the best things about this is that only 1 of our remaining 7 games is a predicted 3 pointer.
Not much scope to drop expected points and multiple opportunities to recover some.

Also of the Predicted points above 5 of the games are 4 pointers (including one of ours)

Weststander · Jun 25, 2020

LlcoolJ said:
I did the predictor thing after the Arsenal game. Came up with a pretty similar outcome EXCEPT West Ham did a lot worse and it came down to the last day for them and Villa.

I had us losing to Leicester btw. Tried to be as unbiased and realistic as possible. But 33/34 points was enough to stay up (and we finished 15th).

I've had another look and I really cannot see where the points can come from for 2 of West Ham / Plucky / Villa (plus Watford who will be safe) to overtake us.

No chickens counted, but we are in the driving seat now and I completely agree with what a Stato has said re Potter and the preparations by the coaches and the squad.

I also feel that the last day West Ham v Villa could be pivotal. There's going to be tears. Hopefully with us well out of the picture.

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