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[Albion] To Avoid Potter Bashing - the staying up tracker - season 2019-2020 Game 38 UPDATE







Audax

Boing boing boing...
Aug 3, 2015
2,941
Uckfield
Exactly! This is in fact our best start so far, Villa next who obviously are new entrants as far as our PL history is concerned. In theory, the standard model anticipates we get 4 points off them this season. Based on ‘expected goals’, Villa are about where their performances suggest they should be. So it could be a tight game if we have luck / poor finishing in line with our games prior to Spurs.

If we're going off "expected" stats: our xG is 8th best (but we've wasted many of those opportunities - there's only 3 more wasteful teams than us at the moment: Watford, Everton, and Southampton). Our xGA is the 8th worst, but we've done a good job not conceding (only 4 teams better at keeping out xGA than us). End result is that our expected points puts us ... 6th on the table. All three of those stats better for us than for Villa.

All of which means nothing: our current table position shows that. But, what I do take away from this:

1. My general feeling that we've been playing far better football than last season is probably right.
2. We're exposing ourselves to chances, but we're doing a pretty good job defusing those chances. Especially given we've already played ManC and Chelsea (two of the top 3 xG teams currently).
3. We're creating enough chances that, if we start putting them away, we'll be safe from relegation early. Potentially even hitting Bloom's top 10 target.
 


Jim D

Well-known member
Jul 23, 2003
5,249
Worthing
If we're going off "expected" stats: our xG is 8th best (but we've wasted many of those opportunities - there's only 3 more wasteful teams than us at the moment: Watford, Everton, and Southampton). Our xGA is the 8th worst, but we've done a good job not conceding (only 4 teams better at keeping out xGA than us). End result is that our expected points puts us ... 6th on the table. All three of those stats better for us than for Villa.

All of which means nothing: our current table position shows that. But, what I do take away from this:

1. My general feeling that we've been playing far better football than last season is probably right.
2. We're exposing ourselves to chances, but we're doing a pretty good job defusing those chances. Especially given we've already played ManC and Chelsea (two of the top 3 xG teams currently).
3. We're creating enough chances that, if we start putting them away, we'll be safe from relegation early. Potentially even hitting Bloom's top 10 target.

I think I might take a 6th place finish right now if offered.
 




Tim Over Whelmed

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 24, 2007
10,190
Arundel
Another week gone by without earning any points, shirley we're doomed, this can't go on, Hyppia out!
 






Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,734
West west west Sussex
Dunno what it means but I think it looks positive enough:-

EHdqAfZWwAAO60I.png
 








Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,734
West west west Sussex
Oh gawd - another way of looking at it - and not understanding it at all!

If only this thread was confined to just Giraffe's tracker - perhaps there could be a special home for all the other stuff!
Don't blame me, blame the nimrod who told us to follow Albion Analytics on twitter.

Believe me, that's one of the more straightforward charts, graphs or graphics they now fill my timeline.
 










So we’re a point ahead of where we’ve ever been in the PL after 8 games, whether judged on simply number of games or by opponent.........

Not sure that can be right. After 10 games last year, we had 14 points and were in 11th place in the table, I only remember because it was my birthday and I thought nice present.

It was mostly built around the rock-like form of Dunk-Duffy and Murray's probably final ever spell of prolific scoring
 




Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,749
Back in Sussex
Not sure that can be right. After 10 games last year, we had 14 points and were in 11th place in the table, I only remember because it was my birthday and I thought nice present.

It was mostly built around the rock-like form of Dunk-Duffy and Murray's probably final ever spell of prolific scoring

You're both right.

In 2018/19 we were on 8 points from 8 games, we then beat Newcastle (a) and Wolves (h) to stand on 14 points from 10 games.
 


Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
55,749
Back in Sussex
You're both right.

In 2018/19 we were on 8 points from 8 games, we then beat Newcastle (a) and Wolves (h) to stand on 14 points from 10 games.

Interestingly though, if we don't beat Everton this will be our WORST start since we were promoted, as measured at the 10 game mark.

2017/18 - 12 points
2018/19 - 14 points
2019/20 - 9, 10 or 12 points
 


essbee1

Well-known member
Jun 25, 2014
4,137
Interestingly though, if we don't beat Everton this will be our WORST start since we were promoted, as measured at the 10 game mark.

2017/18 - 12 points
2018/19 - 14 points
2019/20 - 9, 10 or 12 points

Our finish has to be better thought surely!!!
 


Icy Gull

Back on the rollercoaster
Jul 5, 2003
72,015
We got lucky in three games on the trot at this time last season, remind me how much luck we have had so far this season?

Did we look like we belonged in this division at any stage last season? How often have we looked like we don’t belong this season

In the words of MA mark 1 “Keep the faith”
 




FatSuperman

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2016
2,830
Interestingly though, if we don't beat Everton this will be our WORST start since we were promoted, as measured at the 10 game mark.

2017/18 - 12 points
2018/19 - 14 points
2019/20 - 9, 10 or 12 points

True, but measured by fixture, as best we can, we will be at worst on track with previous seasons. If we win, then ‘BT the Script’ is currently looking the most accurate! By ‘cum points’ anyway
 


Hampster Gull

New member
Dec 22, 2010
13,462
It means at the start of the season they were predicting we'd be 17th on 38 points.
Now they're predicting we'll be 16th on 41 points.
You have not been charged for this.

And the last two columns? I can’t afford to be charged for any response
 


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