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  1. #1
    Part time moderator Giraffe's Avatar
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    To Avoid Potter Bashing - the staying up tracker - season 2019-2020


    51 Not allowed!
    So here we go again. Bed wetting is old hat, so I've binned that. This season will be all about not bashing Potter.

    Quick reminder for those who didn't follow this tracker last season.

    The assumption is we need 40 points to stay up (we can argue that all summer, and yes in the last two seasons we didn't quite need it but it has happened in the past and therefore I am sticking with it, hit 40 points and we are almost certainly staying up).

    To get these the easiest way is beat the bottom ten teams at home and draw with them away (bottom ten defined as lowest seven not relegated last season plus three promoted, meaning all the way up to West Ham (as we don't play ourselves unfortunately).

    So this is a non biased, completely objective view of the fixtures and how we are doing against them through the season. It pretty much worked last season although Burnley's fall from grace and Wolves strength muddled it a bit. I'd say that last season teams finished pretty much where they will do again, with Wolves now recognised for their strength and Burnley in amongst the "beatables" again. I also don't see any of the newly promoted teams finishing higher than the bottom ten.

    Unlike last season there is a pretty even split with points expected almost evenly between each half. 19 in the first 19 games, 21 in the second. However you'll see when I post the Europe tracker shortly this is a bit deceptive as those arguably additional winnable games at home against the likes of Leicester, Everton and Wolves (outside top six but not in bottom ten) are more in the first half.

    So here it is for the coming season:

    - First five games suggest 10 points. A big early test that could raise expectations of Potter World too high in my view.
    - Next 11 games just 5 points. Has Potter lost his magic.....
    - 19 points from 12 games makes sure the NSC sheets are dry again and we think we are almost safe (sound familiar?)
    - Then just 1 point in a tough looking run of 7 games means we still have work to do.
    - We edge to 40 with 5 points out of the last 3 games.

    Easy.

    I'll guess at 43-46 points this season by the way. Last season I guessed at 46-48, so ignore anything I say!
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    Last edited by Giraffe; 13-06-2019 at 10:33.

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