[Albion] VAR next season - blocks, dribbles and penalties

Guinness Boy · May 29, 2019

With VAR coming in to the Premier League next season is there a chance that teams who rely on blocking to defend will concede more penalties as these blocks are analysed and touches off the arm could be given, as happened to PSG v Man U?

Conversely, will a team taking more shots or dribbles in the penalty area earn more pens?

I’m sure you can see where that’s come from but TB does love to crunch the numbers. (No, I’m not suggesting it’s another reason why CH got sacked but that the rule changes and use of VAR could see a further shift towards attacking football and pot shots).

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Super Steve Earle · May 30, 2019

VAR in the Prem is a big reason why I wanted us to stay up, apart from all the obvious ones. Going down would have meant another season of dreadful refereeing going unchecked. Having said that, the Man City Jahanbakhshgate affair suggested that it could still be used just to favour the Top Six. I know that sounds like paranoia, but why no replays to show the crowd how the decision was made (not to Red card Walker) as promised pre match. What worried me about refereeing last year is the way clear and obvious decisions such as the Burnley penalty just weren't given or even considered when it beggars belief that neither assistant nor ref saw it.

Peter Grummit · May 30, 2019

Guinness Boy said:
With VAR coming in to the Premier League next season is there a chance that teams who rely on blocking to defend will concede more penalties as these blocks are analysed and touches off the arm could be given, as happened to PSG v Man U?

Conversely, will a team taking more shots or dribbles in the penalty area earn more pens?

I’m sure you can see where that’s come from but TB does love to crunch the numbers. (No, I’m not suggesting it’s another reason why CH got sacked but that the rule changes and use of VAR could see a further shift towards attacking football and pot shots).

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It's a valid point. Teams that defend very deep likely to suffer too (less serious if the block is outside the box).

I think the betting market will be affected as a greater proportion of goals will be from penalties, both because of the OP and because there will be more open play goals disallowed by VAR due to 'trivial' attacking infringements such as v marginal offsides and pushing.

PG

Yoda · May 30, 2019

Super Steve Earle said:
VAR in the Prem is a big reason why I wanted us to stay up, apart from all the obvious ones. Going down would have meant another season of dreadful refereeing going unchecked. Having said that, the Man City Jahanbakhshgate affair suggested that it could still be used just to favour the Top Six. I know that sounds like paranoia, but why no replays to show the crowd how the decision was made (not to Red card Walker) as promised pre match. What worried me about refereeing last year is the way clear and obvious decisions such as the Burnley penalty just weren't given or even considered when it beggars belief that neither assistant nor ref saw it.

I think the reason that wasn't shown during the match is because the VAR didn't think the ref made an incorrect decision.
If they had asked the ref to review the footage, then I think it would have been shown.

Harry Wilson's tackle · May 30, 2019

Guinness Boy said:
With VAR coming in to the Premier League next season is there a chance that teams who rely on blocking to defend will concede more penalties as these blocks are analysed and touches off the arm could be given, as happened to PSG v Man U?

Conversely, will a team taking more shots or dribbles in the penalty area earn more pens?

I’m sure you can see where that’s come from but TB does love to crunch the numbers. (No, I’m not suggesting it’s another reason why CH got sacked but that the rule changes and use of VAR could see a further shift towards attacking football and pot shots).

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You'll clutch any straw, won't you :lolol:

trueblue · May 30, 2019

Yoda said:
I think the reason that wasn't shown during the match is because the VAR didn't think the ref made an incorrect decision.
If they had asked the ref to review the footage, then I think it would have been shown.

Pretty much the correct answer. I think the footage will only be on screens if a decision is overturned, showing fans why the referee changed his mind.

Easy 10 · May 30, 2019

trueblue said:
Pretty much the correct answer. I think the footage will only be on screens if a decision is overturned, showing fans why the referee changed his mind.

Except if you're at Anfield or Old Trafford.

Napper · May 30, 2019

Be interesting to see how the bigger clubs and VAR works as there is 100% a bias at the moment.

Easy 10 · May 30, 2019

I think they'll still shy away from showing VAR reviews / decisions on the big screens for controversial calls, for the same reason they don't currently show replays of disallowed goals, red cards or offside decisions to everyone inside the stadium. Anything borderline or controversial is only going to serve to get the crowd further worked up, angry and frustrated (as well as managers on the sidelines seeing it). A 4th officials nightmare.

Postman Pat · May 30, 2019

It will be interesting to see if the players renowned for going down 'easily' will be less likely to do so as they will get found out and punished accordingly.

Hopefully it is going to lead to a sea change in football in a way that punishing defenders for going through the back of players did. What England worked out really quickly in the World Cup is that they couldn't pull shirts or hold defenders. Premier League CB will need to learn the same.

Dunk and Duffy will need to find a way of blocking shots on goal and keeping their arms out of the equation as much as possible.

I do think it will lead to more goals in games, and teams that want to sit on the edge of their box and try and block everything will find it much harder to do so as forwards will be more obliged to take a pot shot and hope it hits a hand on the way.

timbha · May 30, 2019

Unless there is a dramatic change in the way defenders defend corners the teams that get the most will undoubtedly get more pens (if in top 6). If the attacking team foul/block etc the penalty is much less and may not be covered by VAR.

Bodian · May 30, 2019

Postman Pat said:
It will be interesting to see if the players renowned for going down 'easily' will be less likely to do so as they will get found out and punished accordingly.

Hopefully it is going to lead to a sea change in football in a way that punishing defenders for going through the back of players did. What England worked out really quickly in the World Cup is that they couldn't pull shirts or hold defenders. Premier League CB will need to learn the same.

Dunk and Duffy will need to find a way of blocking shots on goal and keeping their arms out of the equation as much as possible.

I do think it will lead to more goals in games, and teams that want to sit on the edge of their box and try and block everything will find it much harder to do so as forwards will be more obliged to take a pot shot and hope it hits a hand on the way.

timbha said:
Unless there is a dramatic change in the way defenders defend corners the teams that get the most will undoubtedly get more pens (if in top 6). If the attacking team foul/block etc the penalty is much less and may not be covered by VAR.

What England worked out even more quickly was how to win penalties from the opposition not cottoning on quickly enough. But actually, that was more a sort of refs dictat that pulling and so on at corners would be penalised rather than VAR - but I can see VAR having a huge impact on the way corners work out next year. Maybe that's the real reason Bruno retired, he loves a bit of a shirt pull at corners!

Sorrel · May 30, 2019

If someone falls down under a challenge in the penalty area it's still very hard to tell if the fall was caused by the tackle or if the player decided to fall over the tackle. For that kind of challenge I would expect still a lot of arguments about whether someone dived or not - even with VAR.

Is there a presumption in these cases? Is it to go with the referee's decision if unsure, or to give a penalty always if in slow-mo it looks like it might be a penalty without certainty?

Kinky Gerbil · May 30, 2019

Sorrel said:
If someone falls down under a challenge in the penalty area it's still very hard to tell if the fall was caused by the tackle or if the player decided to fall over the tackle. For that kind of challenge I would expect still a lot of arguments about whether someone dived or not - even with VAR.

Is there a presumption in these cases? Is it to go with the referee's decision if unsure, or to give a penalty always if in slow-mo it looks like it might be a penalty without certainty?

It’s for clear and obvious mistakes, so I guess if the ref is unsure they go with the on field call.

Weststander · May 30, 2019

Napper said:
Be interesting to see how the bigger clubs and VAR works as there is 100% a bias at the moment.

I think most of the refs simply make incompetent blunders and arrogantly won’t reassess, even for a second. Atkinson for example was a joke against top 6 clubs too.

I hope VAR is a massive improvement.

Can the ref still disregard the VAR advice if he wants?

Mtoto · May 30, 2019

Peter Grummit said:
It's a valid point. Teams that defend very deep likely to suffer too (less serious if the block is outside the box).

I think the betting market will be affected as a greater proportion of goals will be from penalties, both because of the OP and because there will be more open play goals disallowed by VAR due to 'trivial' attacking infringements such as v marginal offsides and pushing.

PG

Wouldn't the effect on betting markets depend on the extent to which one balances out the other? My guess (though it may prove to be hopelessly wrong) would be that in the long run, VAR will rule out more goals than it "creates", if that's the right word, because defending is easier than scoring. Defenders - the good ones, anyway, which is almost all of them in the PL - will adapt, learn to keep their hands out of the way and cut down on the shirt-pulling at corners. It will still be very difficult to score.

The number of goals scored from corners might go up a bit, but as it's only something like 1 in 35 that lead directly to a goal at the moment, it could go down to 1 in 30 and that would only be another 20 goals or so over the whole season (about 3900 corners in all last season).

The one thing we don't have an easy stat for is offside goals that were given (or goals where a foul should have been given in the build-up and wasn't). Guess we'll have a better idea of what that number is this time next year.

Citizen Slade · May 30, 2019

Guinness Boy said:
With VAR coming in to the Premier League next season is there a chance that teams who rely on blocking to defend will concede more penalties as these blocks are analysed and touches off the arm could be given, as happened to PSG v Man U?

Conversely, will a team taking more shots or dribbles in the penalty area earn more pens?

I’m sure you can see where that’s come from but TB does love to crunch the numbers. (No, I’m not suggesting it’s another reason why CH got sacked but that the rule changes and use of VAR could see a further shift towards attacking football and pot shots).

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Very much depends on how savvy managers and coaches are to it now, and how quick players are to take onboard the coaching pre season and switch on to it once the season starts.

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[Albion] VAR next season - blocks, dribbles and penalties

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